From January to March 2026, Vietnam's agricultural conditions were generally characterized by dry climatic conditions but strong support from irrigation systems. National precipitation was 21% below the average, and potential biomass decreased by 12% accordingly. However, 90% of cropland remained under cultivation, peak vegetation conditions were favorable, and the Crop Production Situation Index was slightly above the baseline. This indicates that the dominance of irrigated rice effectively buffered the impacts of drought. Vietnam’s rice area decreased by 5.06%, yield declined by 2.86% (Figure 2.23), and total production fell by 7.77%.

In the southern Mekong River Delta and the Southeast region, dry-season rice reached its growth peak in January, followed by a sharp decline in NDVI in February due to concentrated harvesting, and then entered the sowing period for rainy-season rice in March. In the central region, dry-season rice continued growing until harvest in March. In northern areas such as the Red River Delta, dry-season rice was sown from January and gradually entered the growing stage, during which NDVI should show an increasing trend. The impacts of precipitation deficits were most pronounced during the critical water-demand periods of crop growth.

Regional differences were evident. The Mekong River Delta showed the most stable performance and was the only region with a positive precipitation anomaly, supported by sufficient irrigation. The South Central Coast recorded the highest potential biomass and favorable crop growth conditions. The Central Highlands experienced relatively strong water stress, although irrigated areas still maintained good performance. In the Red River Delta, precipitation was severely deficient, and crops were in the planting stage, resulting in a weaker vegetation peak. This suggests that northern rice-growing areas were in the transplanting and early growth stages and require continued monitoring.

Overall, Vietnam’s agricultural outlook for this quarter was slightly optimistic under the support of irrigation systems. However, the negative impacts of drought have already become apparent in rainfed areas and regions with insufficient irrigation support.

                                Figure 2.23 Dry-season rice yield in Vietnam from January to March 2026