Thailand's agriculture from January to March 2026 was characterized by "significant precipitation deficits, yet stable production in irrigated areas". This period covered the growth and harvesting stages of the dry-season rice, making national agricultural performance largely dependent on irrigated dry-season rice conditions. Nationally, precipitation was 34% below average, leading to a 14% reduction in potential biomass. However, the vegetation condition index remained high in core agricultural zones due to irrigation support, and the national crop production index slightly exceeded the baseline.

Affected by earlier waterlogging, Thailand's rice planting area in 2026 saw a notable decline (Figure 2.24), decreasing by approximately 7.7% compared to the same period in 2025. The yield was 4,312 kg/ha, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and total rice production rose by 2.77%, reflecting the system's resilience.

Regional performance showed significant divergence. The irrigated lowlands of the central region performed best, with high planting ratios and strong peak greenness, indicating favorable growth of dry-season rice. The rainfed agricultural areas in the northeast emerged as a key area of concern. This region had the lowest planting ratio, and its NDVI deteriorated notably in March, highlighting the direct impact of water constraints on dry-season crops as the dry season progressed. This underscores the higher vulnerability of rainfed agriculture amid sustained low rainfall, pointing to the main source of future agricultural risks.

Figure 2.24 Dry-Season Rice Yield in Thailand, 2026