According to the latest ENSO Diagnostic Report issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in April 2026, the global climate system is currently in an ENSO‑neutral state. This neutral phase is expected to last through April–June 2026 (with a probability of about 80%) and may transition toward an El Niño during May–July 2026 (with a probability of about 61%).https://www.weather.gov/fwd/enso

Based on the short‑term weather forecast for late April 2026 and the long‑term outlook for May–June 2026, CropWatch monitoring shows that drought conditions in global rain‑fed agricultural regions are projected to ease in the coming months (see Figure 1.10/Figure 1.11).

Compared with the period from January to March 2026, the following regions face potential risks of intensified drought: North America (especially the U.S. Midwest), Southern South America (Argentina and surrounding areas),Northern and eastern Africa,Southern Asia (the Indian subcontinent), Parts of Australia

Meanwhile, drought conditions are likely to be mitigated in Most of Europe, Northern North America, Parts of northeast China

Areas requiring close attention in the near future include:

1) Precipitation variability in water‑limited regions, particularly in key Northern Hemisphere cropping zones that are entering critical growth stages (e.g., the United States, Western Europe, India).

2) Global water‑resource allocation, especially reservoir storage and irrigation‑security capacity in major irrigated zones.

3) Risks associated with an ENSO‑driven El Niño, such as more frequent/extreme heatwaves, aggravated drought‑flood events, and the spatially differentiated impacts of global precipitation and temperature anomalies on major agricultural regions.

Figure 1.10 Monthly precipitation, temperature and PDSI in Global Rain-fed Agricultural Areas (July 2024 – June 2026)

Figure 1.11 Predicted PDSI Differences Between April–June 2026 and January–March 2026