This reporting period covers March–May 2026. Using multi-source satellite remote-sensing data, ground observations, and meteorological data—supported by the global agricultural remote-sensing monitoring cloud service platform (CropWatch Cloud)—we assessed global production conditions for major grain and oilseed crops. The analysis focused in particular on Northern Hemisphere winter wheat and Southern Hemisphere maize at the current stage, examined extreme weather events that significantly affected agricultural production and the evolving El Niño situation, and conducted high-resolution remote-sensing monitoring and verification of planting area, yield per unit area, and total production for major crops in 20 key producing countries (selected from the top 20 countries in global grain output and the top 15 countries by population).

From March to May 2026, Northern Hemisphere winter wheat was in the critical growth stages from jointing to grain filling to maturity, while spring wheat/maize were in the peak sowing and early growth period. Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, summer crops such as soybean and maize entered the maturity-to-harvest phase, and tropical regions moved into the rainy season with rice transplanting and early growth underway. Agro-meteorological conditions showed pronounced regional differentiation: the central–southern Great Plains of North America, most of Western and Central Europe, much of South Asia, mainland Southeast Asia, and the Sahel were the main precipitation-deficit areas, whereas the East African Highlands, parts of the North China Plain, and the eastern Mediterranean coast experienced above-normal precipitation. Although about 65% of global cropland showed a marked decline in root-zone soil moisture and about 49% experienced heat stress, by the end of May the global agricultural drought risk over cropland remained at a level corresponding to a 1-in-2-year event.

During the monitoring period, the global Crop Production Situation Index (CroPI-3) had an overall mean of about 1.06, remaining above the baseline, but with strong spatial heterogeneity. The pattern can be summarized as “notably favorable in East Africa and the central–southern part of Southern Africa; internal differentiation within Europe; and pronounced stress over central–southern North America and South Asia.” Performance was relatively strong in Africa (East Africa and the central–southern part of Southern Africa), Eastern Europe (e.g., Ukraine), and northwestern North America, while Asia, central–southern North America, and eastern Australia were comparatively weaker.

Global total production of major grain and oilseed crops continued to rise. Maize, wheat, and soybean increased significantly, while rice rose slightly. Total production of the four major grain and oilseed crops reached 3.40977 billion tons, up 96.46 million tons year-on-year (+2.9%), the largest single-year increase in nearly a decade. Specifically, global maize production reached 1.23714 billion tons, up 40.85 million tons (+3.4%); rice reached 864.69 million tons, up 6.46 million tons (+0.8%); wheat reached 847.03 million tons, up 24.37 million tons (+3.0%); and soybean reached 460.91 million tons, up 24.78 million tons (+5.7%).

The probability of a strong El Niño developing in the second half of 2026 is high. The next monitoring period should closely track the evolution of a potential strong El Niño event and its differentiated impacts on global agriculture. Key areas of attention include: changes in hot, dry winds and precipitation during the late grain-filling and harvest periods in major Northern Hemisphere grain regions such as the United States, Russia, and Ukraine; soil moisture conditions and irrigation security in regions such as Western Europe and India that are entering critical growth stages; and spring–summer precipitation, reservoir storage, river-network recharge, and soil-moisture recovery in major rice-producing countries, in order to assess potential impacts on crop condition and yield prospects.