1.1.1 Global Agrometeorological Conditions and Outlook

During the monitoring period (March–May 2026), global agrometeorological conditions showed marked regional differentiation. In terms of precipitation, the main deficit areas included the south-central Great Plains of North America, most of Western and Central Europe, most of South Asia, the Indochina Peninsula, the Sahel belt, and eastern Australia, which experienced below-average rainfall. Above-average precipitation was observed in the East African Highlands, parts of North China's agricultural areas, the eastern Mediterranean coast, the eastern coast of Brazil, and southeastern Australia. In terms of temperature, most of North America was abnormally warmer than average, and most of Western and Southern Europe was warmer than average. Localized areas in eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus were cooler than average, while most of the remaining regions were close to average or slightly warmer than average. PAR was broadly below average worldwide, with more pronounced deficits in Western Europe, Southern Europe, most of China, South Asia, eastern Australia, and equatorial Africa. Affected by below-average PAR and precipitation deficits, potential biomass decreased across most of Europe, South Asia, Australia, and western North America. Conversely, potential biomass increased locally in parts of East Africa, south-central Southern Africa, North China, eastern Brazil, northwestern North America, and southeastern Australia (Figure 1.1).

Figure 1.1 Departure Anomalies of Global Agrometeorological Indicators from the 15-Year Average, March–May 2026: Cumulative Precipitation, Average Temperature, Photosynthetically Active Radiation, and Potential Biomass

East Africa

Precipitation was significantly deficient in northern East Africa, while coastal arid areas of Somalia were close to average or slightly below average. Temperatures were generally close to normal, with localized cool anomalies in the Ethiopian Highlands. PAR was generally below average, with more pronounced decreases around Ethiopia. Potential biomass was normal across most areas, locally increasing in Tanzania and Uganda, and slightly decreasing in parts of Ethiopia and Kenya. The period from March to May represents the main active crop growing season; overall, moisture conditions were favorable for crop growth and pasture recovery, but attention should be paid to the inhibitory impact of low radiation on photosynthetic efficiency.

West Africa and the Sahel

Precipitation across the Sahel belt was generally below average, forming a relatively continuous deficit belt spanning Mali, Niger, Chad, and western Sudan. Along the Gulf of Guinea coast, rainfall varied markedly: localized western coastal areas received above-average rainfall, while the central coast and inland transition zones were mostly below average. Temperatures were generally close to normal, with localized slight cool anomalies, while PAR was widely below average. Potential biomass decreased significantly in the Sahel belt and was close to normal or slightly below average along the southern coast. At present, the drought signal is concentrated in the Sahel; if the onset of the rainy season is delayed, the risks of delayed spring sowing and uneven crop emergence will increase.

Southern Africa

Precipitation in Southern Africa showed significant spatial differences. Rainfall was above average in Zambia, Zimbabwe, central-western Mozambique, and Malawi, but below average in southwestern areas, the southern coast, and eastern Madagascar. Temperatures were mostly close to normal, with localized warm anomalies in the southeastern areas and Madagascar. PAR was below average in the south-central and southwestern parts. Potential biomass increased in the south-central region but decreased in the southwest and eastern Madagascar. During the harvest period of summer crops, abundant moisture in the central and eastern parts was favorable for yield formation. However, persistent dry conditions in the southwest were unfavorable for soil moisture and the later-stage growth of crops.

North America

Precipitation deficits were widespread across the southern Great Plains, southern inland areas, and the southwest of North America. Conversely, above-average precipitation was recorded in the Great Lakes region, the northern Great Plains, and the Pacific Northwest coast. Temperature anomalies were highly prominent, with the central, western, and southern contiguous United States and most of Canada being significantly warmer than average, and only high-latitude areas being cooler than average. PAR was generally below average, most notably in the southwest. Potential biomass decreased in the southern and southwestern Great Plains but increased in the northwest and the Great Lakes region. The combination of warm and dry conditions, along with precipitation deficits, accelerated the depletion of antecedent soil moisture, raising the risk of moisture stress during the green-up to jointing stages of winter wheat. Close attention should also be paid to spring sowing operations and pasture recovery.

South America

Precipitation in South America showed clear regional variation. Rainfall was below average in the central-western tropical interior of Brazil and agricultural areas west of the Andes, while above-average precipitation was observed along the eastern coast of Brazil. In the Southern Cone agricultural areas, precipitation was close to average to below average, with a more pronounced deficit in the southeast. Temperatures were mostly close to normal, with localized slight cool or warm anomalies. PAR was generally below average, particularly along the eastern coast of Brazil. Potential biomass decreased in the central-western region but increased along the eastern coast. Overall, agrometeorological risks mainly originated from insufficient precipitation; attention should be paid to moisture dynamics during the grain filling, maturity, and harvest stages in central-western Brazil and the Southern Cone, while the eastern coastal areas need to guard against overly wet conditions affecting field operations.

Caribbean

Agrometeorological conditions showed little differentiation across the Caribbean and the Central American Isthmus. Precipitation was above average in Cuba, some islands of the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern part of the Central American Isthmus, while most islands were close to average. Temperatures were mostly normal, with localized slight warm anomalies, and PAR was generally below average. Potential biomass mostly showed an increasing trend, indicating generally favorable moisture and thermal conditions. This period marked the transition from the dry season to the rainy season; the above-average precipitation was beneficial for soil moisture conservation and subsequent sowing operations, though localized below-average PAR may slightly suppress crop growth.

Northeast Asia

Precipitation in Northeast Asia showed marked north-south differentiation. Rainfall was above average in North China (including Hebei, northern Henan, and areas along the Taihang Mountains), but mostly below average in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China, the southern Huang-Huai region, and the Jianghuai region. In Northeast China, spatial differentiation was localized, with above-average rainfall in northern Heilongjiang and below-average rainfall in parts of Jilin, Liaoning, and eastern Inner Mongolia. Temperatures were mostly close to normal, with localized slight warm anomalies in North China and slight cool anomalies in the northern high-latitude areas. PAR was significantly below average across a wide area. Potential biomass increased across most of North China and Northeast China, but decreased in the Jianghuai region, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and South China. Improved soil moisture in North China was favorable for winter wheat grain filling, but crops in the Huang-Huai to Jianghuai regions and South China were jointly suppressed by insufficient moisture and below-average PAR. Spring soil moisture replenishment in Northeast China also warrants close monitoring.

Southeast Asia

Precipitation on the Indochina Peninsula was markedly below average, subjecting dry-season rice production to moisture stress. Rainfall across the Malay Archipelago and the Philippines was also predominantly below average. Temperatures were mostly close to normal, with localized slight warm anomalies on the Indochina Peninsula. PAR was widely below average, and potential biomass showed a decreasing trend. Regional thermal conditions were generally stable, but precipitation deficits were widespread; close attention should be paid to moisture reserves and irrigation support before the establishment of the southwest monsoon.

South Asia

Most of South Asia experienced significant precipitation deficits, with the most pronounced deficits occurring in the northwestern, central, southern, and western plains of the subcontinent. Conversely, the northeastern mountainous areas recorded above-average precipitation, while the lower Ganges Basin and Bangladesh were below average to close to normal. Temperatures were generally close to normal, with localized prominent warming in the northwest. PAR was below average across most areas, leading to a significant decrease in potential biomass. In the northwest and central-west, winter wheat was in the critical grain-filling stage; the combination of precipitation deficits and low radiation intensified both moisture and solar energy stress.

Central Asia

Precipitation in Central Asia showed localized differentiation. Rainfall was below average in the southern Turan Lowland, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, close to normal in the northern Kazakh Uplands, and above average in the northern foothills of the Pamirs and the Fergana Valley. Temperatures were warmer than average across the entire region, particularly in the southern foothills and low-latitude areas, which was favorable for accumulated temperature accumulation and advanced crop phenology. PAR was generally normal to below average, while potential biomass increased across most areas, making spring crop growth conditions generally favorable. However, the drier southern foothill areas need to monitor irrigation water availability and spring sowing soil moisture.

Western Europe

Most of Western Europe recorded severe precipitation deficits, with France, the United Kingdom, the Low Countries, and Germany forming the core deficit zone in Europe, while only northwestern Iberia and localized northern coastal areas received above-average rainfall. Temperatures were generally warmer than average, with France and Spain being significantly warmer than average, whereas PAR was significantly below average. Potential biomass decreased across most areas, with prominent declines in the Iberian Peninsula, France, and Germany. During the critical grain-filling to maturity stages of winter wheat, crops encountered compound warm, dry, and low-radiation stress. The combination of deficient antecedent soil moisture, enhanced evapotranspiration, and limited photosynthesis jointly suppressed grain filling. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of persistent drought on subsequent summer crop emergence.

Eastern Europe

Precipitation in Eastern Europe showed significant spatial differentiation. Rainfall was below average in Poland, the Baltic coast, and the central-western parts of European Russia, above average in Romania and Bulgaria, and showed an "above-average in the east and below-average in the west" pattern in Ukraine. Temperatures were mainly warmer than average, though localized areas in the Caucasus were cooler than average. PAR was generally below average, and potential biomass mostly decreased, with localized increases only in eastern Ukraine. Warmer conditions may accelerate winter wheat phenological development, but the combination of dry conditions in the north and west with low radiation warrants close attention regarding the impact of spring drought on subsequent crop growth.

Mediterranean Region

Precipitation in the Mediterranean region was generally below average. Rainfall was below average along the western Mediterranean coast, most of Iberia, and northwestern North Africa; close to normal or slightly below average in the northern Mediterranean; and above average along the northern coast of the eastern Mediterranean and the Levant coast. Temperature showed an east-west contrast, with warmer-than-average conditions along the western Mediterranean and North African coasts, near-normal temperatures in the central part, and localized cool anomalies in the eastern inland areas. PAR was broadly below average. Potential biomass generally decreased, most prominently in the Iberian Peninsula, with localized increases observed only along the eastern Mediterranean coast. During the grain-filling to maturity stages of winter wheat and the early spring sowing period, moisture conditions were tight along the western and northern Mediterranean coasts, while the eastern Mediterranean coast experienced relatively favorable matching of water and thermal conditions.

Oceania

Precipitation was below average in southwestern and eastern Australia, but above average locally in southeastern coastal areas, Tasmania, and northeastern coastal areas; most of New Zealand experienced below-average rainfall. Temperatures were generally close to normal, with localized slight warm anomalies along the eastern coast of Australia. PAR was widely below average across Australia and New Zealand, particularly along the eastern coast. Potential biomass decreased in most of Australia and New Zealand, but increased locally in southeastern Australia. In eastern and southwestern Australia, the compound effects of moisture deficits and low radiation put pressure on pasture recovery, dryland crop growth, and soil moisture conditions. While above-average precipitation in the southeastern grain belt was favorable, insufficient solar radiation still limited biomass accumulation.

1.1.2 Global Agrometeorological Stress

(1) Global croplands experienced overall drier-than-average conditions

Based on SMAP root-zone soil moisture monitoring, soil moisture content decreased significantly across approximately 65% of global cropland areas from April to May 2026 (Figure 1.2a). Overall, global cropland soil moisture anomalies in May 2026 showed a prevailing dry pattern, whereas soil moisture was wetter than the historical average in the North China region, Türkiye, Spain, and parts of the Black Sea coast (Figure 1.2b). CropWatch monitoring indicates that from March to May 2026, the global 8-day crop water stress index generally followed a trend of "initial decrease followed by a slight rebound." The average return period of agricultural drought risk across global croplands declined from 2.26 years to 1.74 years, and by the end of May, the drought risk level was maintained at approximately a 2-year return period. Against the backdrop of an overall downward trend in global drought risk, the area of cropland facing a 5-year return period drought risk expanded in early May, while the area experiencing a 2-year return period drought risk increased in mid-May (Figure 1.3).

Crop water stress risks showed marked regional differentiation (Figure 1.4): in late March, high-risk drought with a return period of $\ge$ 10 years occurred in the Central Asia–Mongolia region and northern Argentina in South America; in late April, localized areas such as Madagascar and northwestern South Asia also experienced high-risk drought with a return period of $\ge$ 10 years; in late May, high-risk drought at the 10-year return period level emerged in the African Sahel belt, while lower drought risks were observed in central China, Eastern Europe and Western Asia, southern North America, Argentina, Southern Africa, and southeastern Australia.

(a) Changes in root-zone soil moisture anomalies from April to May 2026

(b) Root-zone soil moisture anomalies in May 2026

Figure 1.2 Global Cropland Root-Zone Soil Moisture Anomalies Relative to the 2016–2025 Multi-Year Average

Figure 1.3 Proportion Changes of Crop Water Stress Risk Areas in Croplands across Global Agro-Ecological Zones

(a) March 30 to April 6, 2026

(b) April 23 to April 30, 2026

(c) May 25 to June 1, 2026

Figure 1.4 Spatial Pattern of Global Crop Water Stress Risk across Agro-Ecological Zones

(2) Above-average temperatures across croplands in May 2026

Beyond the widely reported heatwaves in India, approximately 49% of global croplands were similarly affected by high temperatures. According to a bulletin released by the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on June 10, 2026, May 2026 was the second-warmest May on record globally, trailing only May 2024 (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-20260). Monitoring based on the cropland Temperature Condition Index (TCI) indicates that from mid-April to late May 2026, the share of global cropland affected by high-temperature stress (defined as TCI $\le$ 40) reached 49.0%, representing a slight increase from the 48.8% reported for March in the previous bulletin, and reflecting the continued expansion of heat stress across global croplands.

In terms of temporal evolution, the global temperature condition index since March initially showed a gradual decline, followed by a sharp increase and subsequently remaining at a relatively high level, with temperature fluctuations in Asia and Europe being the most representative (Figure 1.5). Between March and April, areas affected by high-temperature stress were mainly concentrated in Europe and Australia, while Africa experienced predominantly lower cropland temperatures. From March 29 to April 4, cool conditions in Indian croplands temporarily pulled down the global average cropland temperature (Figure 1.6a). Following a sudden temperature transition, by May, except for northern North China and localized areas of northern India, most regions of the world experienced warmer-than-average temperatures (Figure 1.6b). Among these, the May mean temperatures in India and Pakistan, the lower Irrawaddy River valley in Myanmar, the Chao Phraya and Mun-Chi river basins in Thailand, and parts of Sudan exceeded 35°C, with some areas in South Asia even exceeding 38°C (Figure 1.7), suppressing crop photosynthesis and threating crop growth.

Figure 1.5 Temporal Changes in Global and Continental Cropland Temperature Condition Index (TCI)

(a) March 29 to April 4, 2026

(b) April 5 to June 4, 2026

Figure 1.6 Spatial Pattern of Global Cropland Temperature Condition Index

Figure 1.7 Spatial pattern of Global Cropland Mean Temperature in May 2026

Evolutionary trend of ENSO (El Niño / La Niña)

In the 2026–2027 season, global crop production faces an unprecedented combination of multiple risks, threatening to heavily impact international food production. Specifically, these include rising transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, volatile fuel prices, disrupted fertilizer supplies, and the protracted conflict in Ukraine—a country historically hailed as the "breadbasket of the world." At this vulnerable juncture, authoritative meteorological departments, including the World Meteorological Organization and major climate research institutions, predict the onset of a strong El Niño event later this year (Figure 1.8). This climatic anomaly could further depress global cereal yields, exacerbating the already strained global food security situation. Accordingly, CropWatch will closely monitor the evolution of this phenomenon and its potential impacts on global agriculture throughout the growing season.

Figure 1.8 Probabilistic ENSO Forecast Released by CPC/IRI in Mid-May 2026: Based on the latest model ensemble forecasts (released in mid-May 2026), there is an extremely high probability of an El Niño event during the 2026 season. Specifically, the forecast probability for May–July 2026 is as high as 98%, while the probabilities for neutral and La Niña conditions are near zero. El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the end of 2026, with probabilities consistently remaining within the 97%–98% range across all forecast periods. These results reflect the high confidence of climate models in the continuous occurrence of this strong El Niño event (Source: CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast, mid-May 2026).

1.1.3 Global Crop Production Situation

The period from March to May 2026 coincided with the critical jointing, grain-filling, and maturity stages of winter wheat, as well as the active sowing and growth stages of spring wheat and maize in the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, summer crops such as soybean and maize in the Southern Hemisphere entered the maturity and harvest stages, and tropical regions commenced rainy-season rice transplanting and early growth stages. Based on the integrated assessment of CroPI-3 (March–May 2026), global crop production conditions generally remained above the baseline, but spatial differentiation was significant. The global pattern showed a structure of "outstandingly favorable conditions in East Africa and south-central Southern Africa, internal differentiation in Europe, and deep pressure in south-central North America and South Asia." The global average Crop Production Index (CroPI) was approximately 1.06, remaining above the baseline. Performance was relatively outstanding in Africa (favorable in East Africa and south-central Southern Africa), Eastern Europe (such as Ukraine), and northwestern North America, while Asia, south-central North America, and eastern Australia were relatively weak (Figure 1.9, Figure 1.10).

Figure 1.9 Time Series of Global and Regional CroPI-3, March–May, 2021–2026

Figure 1.10 Global Spatial Distribution of CroPI-3, March–May 2026

East Africa: Outstandingly favorable signals, with good growth of pasture and short-rainy-season crops

CroPI-3 in East Africa was predominantly favorable. CroPI values in the Ethiopian Highlands and parts of the agricultural areas of Kenya and Tanzania mostly ranged between 1.05 and 1.25, locally exceeding 1.25. Favorable conditions were even more prominent around Lake Victoria and parts of equatorial East Africa. Overall, food production conditions in East Africa were significantly above average, with improved moisture conditions providing strong support for crop growth and pasture recovery.

West Africa and the Sahel: Patchy differentiation, with the Sahel region remaining under pressure

CroPI-3 in West Africa and the Sahel displayed a patchy mosaic pattern. Southern coastal areas were generally favorable (1.05–1.25), whereas low-value patches of 0.75–0.95 appeared in the Sahel belt and the inland transition zones of the Gulf of Guinea. Locally low CroPI values in the Sahel were associated with precipitation deficits and insufficient soil moisture reserves; close attention should be paid to the onset of the subsequent rainy season.

Southern Africa: Favorable in the central-eastern region, weaker in Madagascar

In the central-eastern agricultural areas of Southern Africa (Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Malawi), CroPI-3 mostly ranged from 1.05 to 1.25, locally exceeding 1.25. Conversely, eastern Madagascar recorded lower CroPI values (0.75–0.95). The favorable conditions in the central-eastern region were conducive to yield formation for summer crops such as maize, while attention should be paid to final yields in the drier southwest and eastern Madagascar during the harvest period.

North America: Deep pressure in the central-southern region, with resilience remaining in the north

CroPI values were significantly below average in the southern Great Plains, southern inland areas of the United States, and northern Mexico, mostly ranging from 0.50 to 0.85, with parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas falling below 0.75. Most of the central Great Plains and the southeast ranged from 0.85 to 1.00. In contrast, some agricultural areas in the western Great Lakes region recorded higher CroPI values (1.05–1.50), representing a relatively favorable zone during this period. Compound warm-dry stress remained the core risk factor for winter wheat and spring-sown crops in south-central North America.

South America: Major producing areas generally stable, with lower values in the central-west

CroPI-3 in South America was generally within the normal to slightly below-average range. In the main soybean and maize producing areas of central-western Brazil, CroPI-3 was below average (0.75–0.95), clearly affected by prior precipitation deficits. Southern Brazil (Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná) was close to normal (0.95–1.05). In the Argentine Pampas, CroPI mostly ranged from 1.00 to 1.05, though localized areas in the south and southeast, particularly Buenos Aires, declined to 0.85–0.95. Agricultural areas along the eastern coast of Brazil recorded higher CroPI-3 values (1.15–1.50), forming the primary concentration of favorable signals this period. Overall, favorable signals in South America weakened, and the lower values in the central-west warrant attention.

Caribbean: Stable and favorable

CroPI-3 in the Caribbean generally remained at a normal to slightly favorable level (1.05–1.15), reflecting stable and favorable regional production conditions.

Northeast Asia: North-south differentiation, with North China favorable but the Huang-Huai and South China regions under pressure

CroPI-3 in Northeast Asia showed pronounced spatial differentiation. In the North China agricultural region (including Hebei, northern Henan, and areas along the Taihang Mountains), CroPI was close to normal or slightly favorable (1.00–1.15). Conversely, CroPI was lower in the southern Huang-Huai and Jianghuai regions (0.75–0.95). The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China mostly ranged from 0.75 to 0.95, locally falling to 0.50–0.75. The favorable conditions in North China were associated with above-average precipitation and improved soil moisture; in contrast, the low-value areas in the Huang-Huai, Jianghuai, and South China regions were related to the compound stress of episodic moisture deficits and significantly below-average PAR.

Southeast Asia: Peninsula under pressure, island areas favorable

CroPI-3 in Southeast Asia showed a pattern of "pressure on the Indochina Peninsula and favorable conditions in island areas." In Thailand, eastern Myanmar, and parts of Laos, CroPI values were relatively low (0.75–0.95), with localized areas in northeastern Thailand falling to 0.50–0.75. The Malay Archipelago and the Philippines generally performed well (1.05–1.25, locally >1.25). The low-value areas on the Indochina Peninsula were closely associated with precipitation deficits and below-average PAR, which significantly suppressed dry-season crop production.

South Asia: Severe regional differentiation, with the north under deep pressure

CroPI-3 in northern India and northern Pakistan mostly ranged between 0.75 and 0.85, locally declining to 0.50–0.75. This was directly related to compound stress from severe precipitation deficits (below −30%), near-normal temperatures, and below-average PAR, which significantly suppressed winter wheat grain filling. Central and southern India ranged from 0.85 to 0.95, while Bangladesh was close to normal (0.95–1.05). In the northeastern mountainous areas, CroPI was slightly favorable due to above-average precipitation.

Central Asia: Favorable in the north, weaker in foothill oases

CroPI-3 in Central Asia showed a pattern of "favorable conditions in the north and weaker conditions in foothill oases." In northern Kazakhstan, some agricultural areas ranged from 1.05 to 1.25; south-central areas were close to normal (0.95–1.05); and oasis and foothill agricultural areas were below average (0.85–0.95). Attention should be paid to spring sowing soil moisture, irrigation water availability, and the impact of dry conditions in the south on crop emergence.

Western Europe: Production conditions under pressure due to warm, dry, and low-radiation conditions

CroPI-3 in Western Europe was generally within the normal to slightly favorable range (1.00–1.15). Most parts of France, Germany, the Low Countries, and southern Britain ranged from 1.00 to 1.15, locally reaching 1.15–1.25, while northwestern Iberia showed more prominent favorable signals (1.15–1.25). Although CroPI remained near the baseline, the compound warm, dry, and low-radiation conditions significantly suppressed potential biomass. Winter wheat faced the double pressure of moisture stress and insufficient solar energy during the grain-filling stage, with risks to subsequent yield formation currently accumulating.

Eastern Europe: Stable conditions around the Black Sea, weaker in northern and western areas

CroPI-3 in Eastern Europe showed a north-south contrast. Agricultural areas along the northern Black Sea coast, eastern Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria were generally favorable (1.25–1.50, locally >1.50). Conversely, CroPI was lower in Poland, the Baltic coast, and the central-western parts of European Russia (0.75–0.95). In these low-value areas, attention should be paid to spring precipitation recovery and antecedent soil moisture replenishment. Across Russia, agrometeorological conditions showed marked regional differentiation: the Northwestern region and the Baltic coast suffered from spring drought with compound low-radiation and precipitation deficits, while the southern major producing areas (including the Central Black Earth region and the Volga Valley) performed relatively well. Overall, the winter wheat production outlook in Russia showed clear regional differentiation, with the southern major producing areas performing better than the north.

Mediterranean Region: Favorable conditions, with narrowing east-west differentiation

CroPI-3 in the Mediterranean region was prominently favorable. Favorable conditions mostly ranging from 1.05 to 1.25 covered the western Mediterranean coast, southern Iberia, northern Morocco, northern Algeria, Tunisia, the central Mediterranean (Italian Peninsula), most of Greece, and southern Türkiye in the eastern Mediterranean. Overall, CroPI showed a region-wide favorable pattern, indicating generally good crop production conditions. However, it should be noted that precipitation was below average and potential biomass decreased significantly in agricultural areas of the western Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula; if dry conditions persist, risks to yields may rise.

Oceania: Weaker in eastern and western parts, favorable in the southeast

CroPI was lower in eastern Australia (including New South Wales and southern Queensland) and Western Australia (0.75–0.95), where pasture recovery and soil moisture were suppressed. In contrast, the southeastern Australian grain belt was close to normal or favorable (0.95–1.15). Overall, Oceania showed a pattern of "pressure in the east and west, and favorable conditions in the southeast." Persistent dry conditions in the east led to below-average CroPI, while above-average precipitation in the southeastern grain belt supported stable crop production conditions.