In 2026, production for the major cereals and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat, and soybean) are favorable. Major producing countries and global output both posted modest increases, trade concentration remained high, and the overall supply situation was relatively loose.

Global production of major cereals and oil crops continued to rise, with notable increases in maize, wheat, and soybean, and a slight gain in rice. Combined output of the four major crops reached 3.40977 billion tonnes, up 96.46 million tonnes year-on-year, an increase of approximately 2.9% from previous years, the largest single-year rise in the past decade (Appendix A.1.1). Among them, global maize production was 1.23714 billion tonnes, up 40.85 million tonnes year-on-year (+3.4%); rice production was 864.69 million tonnes, up 6.46 million tonnes (+0.8%); wheat production was 847.03 million tonnes, up 24.37 million tonnes (+3.0%); and soybean production was 460.91 million tonnes, up 24.78 million tonnes (+5.7%) (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1 Remote sensing monitoring and forecasting of major cereals and oil crop production for major exporting and importing countries (production in million tonnes)

In terms of the composition of monitoring and forecasting results, the 20 major producing countries listed in Chapter 3 of the report are the core contributors to global crop output, accounting for 89% of global maize, 83% of rice, 76% of wheat, and 90% of soybean production. They are key areas of focus for global food security monitoring and early warning. Remotely sensed production for major maize-producing countries was 280.00 million tonnes, up 30.40 million tonnes year-on-year, a jump of 12.2%, mainly covering eight countries in South America and Africa including Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. The other 12 major producers provided forecast production, totaling 825.09 million tonnes, with an expected year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Production from other countries, both from remote sensing monitoring and trend forecasting, also increased year-on-year. Monitored rice production for major producing countries was 215.90 million tonnes, a modest year-on-year increase of 0.6%, mainly covering six countries in Southeast and South Asia including Indonesia and Bangladesh. Forecast rice production for the other 14 major producers was 504.29 million tonnes, up 1.4% year-on-year. Remotely sensed wheat production for nine major producers including China, Russia, and the United States was 578.14 million tonnes, a slight year-on-year dip of 0.3%. Production conditions were favorable in France, Germany, and China, whereas India, the United States, Russia, and others experienced declines to varying degrees. Wheat production in other countries varied considerably: remotely sensed wheat production was 127.19 million tonnes, a sharp year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with gains mainly coming from the Middle East and North Africa, including Morocco and Syria. Wheat production doubled in Syria and Algeria, Morocco saw a 91.8% increase, and Iran and Türkiye each posted increases of over 25%. Forecast production for other countries was 72.48 million tonnes, up 1.1% year-on-year. Soybean monitoring was highly concentrated in major producing countries, with monitored production of 230.51 million tonnes, up 8.9% year-on-year; both Brazil and Argentina in South America posted substantial gains. Production for all other countries was forecast and is expected to increase year-on-year.

The concentration of market power in the global trade of four major crops is becoming increasingly evident. Overall production for the top 10 and top 5 exporting and importing countries were stable with modest gains. In general, exporting countries showed favorable production, while importing countries also recorded year-on-year increases, suggesting an overall loose supply-demand balance. On the export side, maize production for the top 10 exporters reached 712.36 million tonnes (+3.3%), rice production 619.97 million tonnes (+1.1%), wheat production 370.00 million tonnes (unchanged), and soybean production 403.90 million tonnes (+5.8%). Production gains were even higher among the top 5 exporters: maize production reached 652.16 million tonnes (+3.2%), rice 376.69 million tonnes (+2.7%), wheat 228.22 million tonnes (+1.1%), and soybean 380.01 million tonnes (+6.1%), indicating continuously strengthening supply capacity among core exporters. On the import side, total maize production for the top 10 importers was 323.24 million tonnes (+3.3%), wheat 196.19 million tonnes (+6.6%), and soybean 69.74 million tonnes (+11.8%); only rice production edged down 0.2% to 355.39 million tonnes. The top 5 importers showed the same pattern as the top 10, with only rice production slipping, down 1.50 million tonnes year-on-year to 235.10 million tonnes.

In 2026, global production of major cereals and oil crops was characterized by ample supply and an optimized structure. Maize, wheat, and soybean were the main drivers of production growth, while rice remained stable. Major producing countries led the increase, maintaining steady trade patterns and further bolstering global food security, which in turn laid a solid foundation for stable market operations. At the same time, the onset of El Niño event is now almost certain. The resulting drought conditions in Southern Africa, Australia, and other vulnerable regions pose a potential threat to crop yields in the second half of the year. CropWatch will closely monitor these climate dynamics, leveraging near-real-time satellite remote sensing data to continuously track and update production forecasts for key grain and oil crops.