From March to May 2026, the main winter wheat production zones across the Northern Hemisphere entered the heading, flowering, and grain-filling stages successively – the most critical phase determining grain weight and final yield. Based on integrated crop condition remote sensing monitoring via the CropWatch Cloud Platform, meteorological data, and final yield verification, this report presents a comprehensive monitoring and assessment of winter wheat production conditions in eight major Northern Hemisphere winter wheat producing countries: China, France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, India, and Canada.

The total winter wheat planting area across the eight countries reached 125,653 thousand hectares, an increase of 0.42% compared with 2025. The weighted average yield stood at 4,355 kg/ha, a year‑on‑year decrease of approximately 1.98%. Total production was estimated at 547.16 million tons, down 1.56% from 2025. While the planted area expanded slightly, yield generally declined due to unfavorable weather from April to June, leading to a total production decrease of about 8.68 million tons compared to the previous year.

Considerable differences were observed among countries: China and France achieved production increases—France benefited from favorable light and temperature conditions during grain filling, and China was supported by irrigation security and effective pest and disease control. In contrast, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, India, and Canada all experienced declines. India and the United States recorded relatively larger yield drops owing to high temperatures and drought during grain filling. In Ukraine, although the planted area recovered substantially, drought during grain filling caused a sharp fall in yield, resulting in lower total production. Germany and Russia saw slight yield decreases, leading to small reductions in total production. Canada's production decreased due to a reduction in area.

Overall, the eight major Northern Hemisphere winter wheat producing countries presented a pattern of "planted area up, yield down, total production slightly down". During March–May, persistent heat and dryness across the U.S. Great Plains, extreme high temperatures in India, and water deficits in eastern Ukraine were the primary causes of yield decline, while sound irrigation conditions in China's Huang‑Huai‑Hai region and mild climate in France sustained yield growth. In Ukraine, the recovery in planted area did not offset yield losses, and total production fell short of the previous year's level.

Subsequent attention should be focused on the final impact of dry‑hot winds on grain weight during the late grain‑filling stage in the United States and Russia, as well as the subsequent constraints of insufficient precipitation from May to June on grain filling in Ukraine.

Table 1.2 Winter Wheat Production Forecast for Eight Major Producing Countries in the Northern Hemisphere, March–May 2026