From March to May 2026, rice production in the equatorial and adjacent rice-growing regions generally exhibited a pattern of “strong resilience in irrigated rice areas, localized water constraints in rainfed rice areas, and intensified regional differentiation.” The CroPI-3 for the global tropical zone was generally maintained at approximately 1.00, indicating a normal level, but under the influence of global climate anomalies, its spatial distribution showed a distinct patchy mosaic pattern and marked polarization (Figure 1.11).

Figure 1.10 Spatial Distribution of the Crop Production Index (CroPI-3) in Equatorial and Adjacent Rice-Growing Regions, March–May 2026

From the perspective of the macro agro-climatic background, the global climate environment during this monitoring period was extremely unfavorable for agricultural production: May 2026 ranked as the second-highest temperature in meteorological history, with approximately 49% of global cropland experiencing varying degrees of high-temperature stress, and root-zone soil moisture in approximately 65% of global cropland showing significant declines during April–May (Figure 1.2). More seriously, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and major climate research institutions predicted that the probability of a strong El Niño event developing in the second half of 2026 was as high as 97%–98% (Figure 1.8), casting a shadow over stable rice production in equatorial regions. Against this background, CroPI-3 values in the alluvial plains of eastern South Asia, parts of the irrigated lowlands of the Indochina Peninsula, and core rice-growing areas on islands mostly remained within the ranges of 0.98–1.05 or 1.00–1.10, reflecting strong resilience to disasters, supported by well-developed irrigation systems and antecedent soil moisture reserves; while in inland and coastal rainfed rice areas of the Indochina Peninsula, some inland dry areas in South Asia, and scattered distribution zones across the equatorial belt of Africa, crop growth faced marked pressure due to intensified “dry-heat” compound stress and substantially constrained potential biomass, with localized CroPI-3 values declining to 0.75–0.95.

South Asian rice-growing areas adjacent to the equatorial belt were in the filling and maturity to harvest stage of Rabi-season and Boro rice, with new-season crops gradually beginning to be sown, exhibiting an overall pattern of “stable production in the east amid abundant rainfall and pressure from dry-heat conditions inland.” Crop growth conditions in the Ganges–Brahmaputra alluvial plain and deltaic rice-growing areas generally exceeded expectations, with Boro rice in Bangladesh achieving a bumper harvest, averaging 4,303.74 kg/ha in yield and reaching 17.2623 million tons in total production. Precipitation was significantly above average in eastern and northeastern South Asia (16% above average in Bangladesh and 29% above average in northeastern India), effectively improving soil moisture conditions and providing adequate moisture for sowing of new-season Aman and Aus rice. By contrast, inland and central areas of the Indian Peninsula continued to exhibit “dry-warm” characteristics, with intense high-temperature fluctuations occurring in early-to-mid April, a significant rise in the national crop water stress index, and aggravated drought conditions. However, in eastern coastal and southern irrigated areas, Rabi-season rice successfully withstood drought conditions supported by robust irrigation guarantees, achieving an average yield of 4,932.11 kg/ha and realizing high-level yield increases, partially offsetting losses in Indian wheat production due to dry-heat conditions; whereas crop growth in the middle and upper reaches of the Ganges Plain and in marginal rice-growing areas without irrigation support was relatively weak.

Southeast Asian rice-growing areas were one of the core regions for equatorial rice monitoring during this period. Under the background of generally below-average precipitation, dry-season rice and winter–spring rice harvests gradually drew to a close, with production conditions strongly dominated by irrigation conditions. During the monitoring period, precipitation across the Indochina Peninsula was markedly below average, photosynthetically active radiation was generally below average, and potential biomass showed an overall declining trend. Thailand’s second-crop (dry-season) rice exhibited a pattern of “area contraction and yield improvement,” with planted area contracting by 7.70% due to insufficient reservoir storage, but supported by strong agricultural resilience in core irrigated lowlands (VCIx reaching 0.83, CroPI-3 reaching 1.02), average yield improved to 4,298.70 kg/ha (+11.00%), and total production slightly increased to 7.506 million tons (+2.45%). The arrival of monsoon rainfall in late May was conducive to preparation for subsequent main-season rice. By contrast, rice production in Vietnam faced dual pressure, with both planted area (-4.45%) and yield (-2.87%) declining, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in total production of 7.20% to 6.088 million tons. During the monitoring period, precipitation in Vietnam was significantly below average by 33%, temperatures were 0.4°C above average, exacerbating paddy evapotranspiration, and potential biomass declined substantially by 19%. Severe insufficiency in natural precipitation supply was the primary factor limiting yield formation.

Rice-growing areas on equatorial islands generally showed a pattern of “steady yield improvement and slight decline in total production due to planted area contraction.” During the monitoring period, rice yield in Indonesia reached 3,905.90 kg/ha, a year-on-year increase of 3.65%, reflecting the support provided by favorable temperature conditions (+0.2°C) and good field growth conditions (VCIx reaching 0.89) for yield formation. Particularly in core irrigated areas such as Java–Bali and coastal alluvial plains, conditions remained stable, with the Crop Production Index at 1.0, effectively buffering the adverse effects of insufficient precipitation. However, affected by below-average precipitation of 17% and weak radiation during the monitoring period, potential biomass in Indonesia declined by 8%, and crop growth in some inland island areas and rainfed agricultural zones was somewhat constrained, causing the Cropland Area Fraction (CALF) to decline by 2% and leading to a marked year-on-year contraction in rice planted area of 8.03%, ultimately limiting further growth in total production, with total production declining by 4.67% year-on-year to 5.6592 million tons. Crop growth conditions across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and other regions continued to show marked spatial differentiation, with non-core areas characterized by weaker water management capacity facing more pronounced pressure.

Rice production in the equatorial rice-growing areas of Africa is relatively scattered, mainly distributed in the lowlands along the Gulf of Guinea, inland valleys, lakeside wetlands, and parts of the highland–lake agricultural belts in East Africa. CroPI-3 values in West Africa and the Sahel region showed a distinct patchy differentiation. In coastal areas along the Gulf of Guinea and inland valleys, the main rainy season gradually established, with precipitation building up sequentially, antecedent soil moisture and local water conditions markedly improving, conducive to sowing and early growth of new-season rice, and the Crop Production Index in some lowland humid rice areas remaining within the range of 1.05–1.25, indicating a normal to slightly favorable level; but in the Sahel belt and inland transition zones, low-value patches of 0.75–0.95 emerged, with concentrated drought signals. If the main rainy season starts later than usual, this will increase the risk of delayed spring sowing and uneven seedling emergence in subsequent rice crops.

Overall, rice production conditions in equatorial regions during this period (March–May) were close to average, but due to differences in irrigation conditions against the background of precipitation deficits and above-average temperatures, internal regional differentiation was more pronounced. Deltas, alluvial plains, and core rice-growing areas on islands with well-developed irrigation systems maintained relatively good yield levels through active water supplementation and favorable light-heat matching, serving as the key factor supporting overall stability in rice production during this period; whereas rainfed areas such as Vietnam with severe precipitation deficits and insufficient irrigation guarantees, as well as marginal inland zones of the Indochina Peninsula and South Asia, faced relatively large pressure for production reductions.

In the next monitoring period, Aman and Aus rice in South Asia will enter the peak growth season, sowing and preparation for main-season rice in Southeast Asia will unfold comprehensively, and rice on equatorial islands will also enter a new production cycle. Given the extremely high probability that a strong El Niño event will develop and persist later this year, continued attention should be paid to reservoir storage, river network replenishment, and soil moisture recovery in various basins during the active phase of the southwest monsoon, guarding against potentially intensified extreme drought and high-temperature heat stress risks. Rice production forecast results for selected major producing countries in this region are shown in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2 Rice Production Forecast for Selected Countries in Equatorial Rice-Growing Regions, March–May 2026

*Thailand data represent dry-season rice monitoring results.