Combining short-range weather forecasts for late June 2026 and seasonal outlooks for July–August 2026, drought conditions across rain-fed agricultural regions worldwide will ease in the coming months (Figures 1.11 and 1.12). Compared with January–March 2026, central Africa, northern China, India, France, northern Argentina and other areas face heightened risks of worsening drought; by contrast, drought stress in the United States, West Africa and other regions is likely to abate.

March–May 2026 coincided with critical spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere and autumn harvesting in the Southern Hemisphere. Nevertheless, global fertilizer prices surged by approximately 31% (urea up 60%) amid geopolitical conflicts and disrupted supply chains, directly driving up grain production costs. Historical precedents indicate that a 1% rise in fertilizer prices pushes agricultural commodity prices up by 0.2%, while a 30% reduction in fertilizer application may trigger yield losses ranging from 15% to 30%. Escalating input costs have forced U.S. farmers to cut corn acreage by nearly 4.9 million acres in favor of soybeans, disrupting global feed grain supplies. Regions reliant on imported fertilizers, such as sub-Saharan Africa, face far more severe food security pressures.

Global agro-meteorological conditions remained under ENSO-neutral phases during this period. However, leading meteorological agencies unanimously project that El Niño will develop rapidly between May and July, with a 60%–70% probability of onset in summer and potential persistence through year-end. This climate event will reshape agricultural prospects across the globe: increased rainfall will benefit soybean cultivation in South America and cotton production in the southern United States, whereas major Asian production zones including India, Australia and Xinjiang, China will suffer from weakened monsoons and projected crop yield declines. While corn markets face limited direct impacts, volatile weather during the June–August growing season will fuel repeated revisions to yield outlooks and greater price swings. The compound shocks of the fertilizer crisis and El Niño will substantially amplify supply risks within the global food system in the second half of 2026.

Key monitoring priorities for the outlook period are outlined as follows:

• Precipitation variability in water-limited zones, particularly major Northern Hemisphere agricultural regions in the United States, Western Europe and India entering their critical growth stages;

• Global water resource allocation, especially reservoir storage volumes and irrigation capacity across core irrigated farming areas;

• Heightened risks of heatwaves, intensified droughts and floods associated with El Niño, alongside differentiated impacts of global precipitation and temperature anomalies on primary agricultural zones.

Figure 1.10 Monthly variation of PDSI over global rainfed agricultural areas from September 2024 to August 2026

Fig. 1.11 Forecast PDSI anomaly: Jun–Aug 2026 minus Mar–May 2026