During March to May 2026, Bangladesh entered the maturity and harvesting period of Boro rice, while also beginning the sowing and early growth stages of Aman and Aus rice. CropWatch remote sensing monitoring shows (Figure 2.3) that, as harvesting was completed, the national average yield of Boro rice is estimated to reach 4,303.74 kg/ha, with total production estimated at 17.2623 million tonnes. Compared with the previous forecast, which estimated a yield of 4,166.08 kg/ha and total production of 16.7102 million tonnes, both yield and production increased significantly. High-yielding areas were mainly concentrated in the central and northern plains, including Rangpur, Rajshahi, Mymensingh, and Dhaka, where light and temperature conditions were well matched. Phenological monitoring indicates that Aus rice was mainly sown from March to May, while Aman rice sowing also began gradually in May. Abundant rainfall effectively supported the sowing progress of the new-season crops.

Figure 2.3 Distribution and yield level of Boro rice in Bangladesh

CropWatch agro-climatic indicators reveal that Bangladesh exhibited a distinct trend of "abundant rainfall but weak radiation" during this period. The RAIN reached 650 mm, which is 16% above the 15-year average (15YA). The rainfall time-series profiles indicate that significant heavy rainfall events occurred across the country in early March and early May, providing ample soil moisture and irrigation sources for the subsequent sowing of Aman and Aus rice. The TEMP was 26.1°C, which is 0.7°C below the average. Meanwhile, constrained by frequent rainfall and increased cloud cover, RADPAR was significantly below the average by 15%. At the sub-national level, precipitation in the core producing regions of the Ganges Plain and Sylhet Basin was 26% and 11% above average, while RADPAR was 15% and 16% below average, respectively. Nonetheless, driven by the abundant rainfall, the overall BIOMSS for Bangladesh was 9% above the long-term average.

Regarding agronomic indicators, the CALF for Bangladesh dropped to 76%, representing a 6% decrease compared to the 5-year average (5YA). Despite this contraction, the  VCIx reached 0.92, reflecting that crop vigor in the core production areas remained highly robust prior to harvest. The CroPI maintained overall stability at 0.98. Concurrently, due to localized dry spells during the seasonal transition, agricultural drought risks intensified in specific regions. The national ADAC dropped sharply to a very low value of -93.8%, while the crop water stress index rose to 1.55, indicating that phase-specific and regional agricultural drought exerted substantial and severe negative pressure on crop production. This moisture stress was most acute in the Hill areas (where rainfall was 29% below average) and certain coastal zones. Although the core North-Central plains relied on ample early-stage water supplies and sound irrigation infrastructure to sustain high production levels, the intense drought in the mid-to-late spring still inflicted non-negligible yield losses on marginal production regions and rain-fed crops lacking irrigation access, which also explains the temporary dip in CALF.

Overall, the growth condition and final production of Boro rice in Bangladesh in 2026 exceeded expectations, achieving increases in both yield and total production. With the successful completion of large-scale harvesting in May, current soil moisture conditions are sufficient and highly favorable for the seedling growth of the subsequent Aus and Aman rice seasons. The outlook for national food production throughout the year remains favorable.