During the current monitoring period, temperatures across Canada's agricultural areas remained persistently low, with the spring warming process lagging behind normal by approximately one to two weeks. Cumulative precipitation reached 138 mm, 2% above the 15-year average, falling within the normal range. The average temperature was 2.7°C, 0.7°C below the normal level for the same period. From late winter through late spring, the main agricultural zones were affected by frequent cold-air activity, resulting in pronounced periodic low temperatures and a delayed warming trajectory. Cumulative photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 699 MJ/m², 8% below normal, reflecting generally greater cloud cover and suboptimal sunshine conditions during the monitoring period. Integrating light, temperature, and moisture conditions, national-scale potential cumulative biomass stood at 437 gDM/m², on par with the normal level, indicating that soil moisture ensured by normal precipitation largely buffered the negative effects of low temperatures and reduced insolation.

At the level of major agro-ecological zones, the St. Lawrence River basin received notably above-normal precipitation (+17%) with temperatures 0.2°C above normal; the Prairie main production zone recorded only a marginal precipitation deficit (–3%) but temperatures 0.8°C below normal, imposing a degree of thermal constraint on the early development of spring-sown crops; the Hudson Bay zone registered precipitation 24% above normal but temperatures 1.6°C below normal, emerging as the most severely affected area in terms of biomass accumulation (departure –14%); Western Canada was slightly drier and warmer, with overall soil moisture conditions remaining normal.

During this monitoring period, the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 37%, four percentage points above the recent five-year average for the same period, reflecting generally strong planting intentions among farmers, consistent with market expectations of "oilseed expansion"; however, early crop development rates were constrained by insufficient heat. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.80, at a moderately low level, indicating that, as of late spring, national vegetation conditions had not yet reached the optimal state recorded in the same period in the recent five years. The spatial distribution map of VCIx shows that most of the Prairie main production zone exhibited VCIx values between 0.6 and 0.9, with localized lower readings primarily attributable to low temperatures and high cloud cover that slowed canopy development. The NDVI profile reveals that from mid-April onward, the current-season NDVI curve consistently tracked below the five-year average line, with the most pronounced negative deviation occurring in early to mid-May, reflecting the process by which early crop growth was persistently suppressed by low temperatures.

Results from high-resolution remote sensing monitoring indicate that Canada's wheat sown area in 2026 is 9.364 million hectares, a decline of 5.3% compared with the actual area of 9.888 million hectares in 2025 (Figure 2.5). This area contraction is consistent with earlier market signals pointing to the partial conversion of wheat fields to canola. The national average wheat yield is forecast at 4,144.1 kg/ha, an increase of 2.3% over the actual yield of 4,052.9 kg/ha in 2025. The yield recovery is primarily driven by two factors: first, abundant winter precipitation during the 2025/2026 winter season (12% above normal), which provided favorable soil moisture reserves for the spring sowing window; second, precipitation during the current monitoring period was +2% relative to normal, with normal soil moisture and no large-scale drought stress, conditions conducive to crop emergence and early root development. Combining area and yield changes, Canada's total wheat production in 2026 is estimated at 38.806 million tonnes, a decline of 3.2% from the actual output of 40.076 million tonnes in 2025.

Fig. 2.5 Canada's winter wheat yield forecast for 2026