By integrating multi-source remote sensing data from ESA Sentinel-1/2, US Landsat-8/9, and the national 10 m cropland dataset, supported by a large volume of in situ samples collected via the Navigation, Video and GIS (GVG) field data collection smartphone application, and employing artificial intelligence methods such as random forest and transfer learning, the 2026 national summer crops and wheat planted area was monitored. Combined with the latest agro-meteorological information and crop yield remote sensing monitoring models, the current season’s summer crop production and wheat production were reviewed. The results are as follows:

(1) Summer Crop Production

The national summer crop production in 2026 is estimated at 148.97 million tonnes, a year‑on‑year increase of 1.61 million tonnes (+1.1%). The magnitude of the increase has narrowed slightly compared with the forecast issued at the end of April. Production in the ten major producing provinces reached 133.27 million tonnes, up by 2.06 million tonnes (+1.5%) year‑on‑year, while production in other provinces declined. Nationwide, summer crop planted area decreased by 1.4% year‑on‑year, but yield increased by 2.5%. The yield improvement effectively offset the impact of the area reduction, sustaining a stable to slight increase in total production (Table 2.1).

Shandong, Hebei and Henan were the main contributors to the summer crop production increase. Shandong recorded a 1.6% expansion in area and a 3.3% increase in yield, bringing production to 28.96 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 1.37 million tonnes (+5.0%), the largest absolute increase among all provinces. Hebei saw its area grow by 6.1% and yield rise by 1.0%, achieving production of 14.88 million tonnes, up by 1.00 million tonnes (+7.2%). Although Henan’s planted area decreased by 3.9%, its yield increased markedly by 5.3%, pushing production to 39.52 million tonnes, up by 0.48 million tonnes (+1.2%), and it remained the country’s largest summer crop producer. Jiangsu’s area contracted by 1.0% while yield increased by 1.3%, with production reaching 27.98 million tonnes, essentially unchanged year-on-year (+0.2%). Hubei, Shaanxi and Shanxi registered production increases of 0.33 million tonnes, 0.19 million tonnes and 0.05 million tonnes, respectively, mainly driven by yield improvements.

Anhui and Xinjiang recorded relatively pronounced declines in summer crop production. Anhui's planted area contracted by 6.3% and yield fell by 2.1%, reducing production to 14.25 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 1.29 million tonnes (-8.3%), the sharpest decline among all provinces. Xinjiang saw its planted area shrink by 2.2%, and while yield increased by 0.7%, this was insufficient to offset the impact of the area loss, bringing production down to 7.37 million tonnes, a year-on-year reduction of 0.11 million tonnes (-1.5%).

Table 2.1 2026 summer crop planted area, yield and production forecast for major producing provinces

(2) Wheat Production

In 2026, China's wheat planted area is estimated at 24,257 thousand ha, down 1.4% year‑on‑year; the national average wheat yield is 5,810 kg/ha, up 2.5% year‑on‑year; and total production stands at 140.94 million tonnes, up 1.2% year‑on‑year. Overall, the situation is characterised by "reduced area, increased yield, and stable to slightly higher production" (Table 2.2, Figure 2.1).

Figure 2.1 Spatial distribution of wheat in the North China and Huang-Huai-Hai wheat region in 2026

The wheat planted area in the ten major producing provinces, including Henan and Shandong, reached 20,870 thousand ha, a year‑on‑year decrease of 1.6%, accounting for 86.0% of the national wheat area. Provincial‑level changes varied considerably. Hebei, Hubei and Shandong registered year‑on‑year increases in wheat planted area: Hebei recorded the largest absolute increase, expanding by 6.1% to 2,529 thousand ha; Hubei increased by 2.4% to 747 thousand ha; and Shandong expanded by 1.6% to 3,578 thousand ha. The remaining provinces experienced varying degrees of area reduction. Shanxi saw the sharpest contraction, falling by 10.7% to 441 thousand ha; Xinjiang decreased by 2.2%, a reduction of 25 thousand ha, mainly from spring wheat planting zones. Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu and Shaanxi contracted by 7.0%, 3.9%, 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively.

Shandong, Hebei and Henan were the main sources of production increase. Shandong’s wheat yield increased by 3.3% to 7,996 kg/ha, and production reached 28.61 million tonnes, up 2.35 million tonnes (+5.0%) year‑on‑year. Hebei benefited from area expansion combined with yield growth, achieving production of 14.44 million tonnes, up 0.57 million tonnes (+7.2%), the highest growth rate among all provinces. In Henan, despite a reduced area, yield increased by 5.3% year‑on‑year to 7,500 kg/ha, pushing production to 39.35 million tonnes, up 3.81 million tonnes (+1.2%). Hubei, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Gansu recorded production increases of 5.8%, 4.0%, 2.2% and 0.4%, respectively.

Anhui, Jiangsu and Xinjiang experienced declines in wheat production. Anhui saw area and yield decrease by 7.0% and 2.2%, respectively, leading to a production drop of 1.15 million tonnes (−9.1%), the largest decline of all provinces. Jiangsu’s yield increase of 1.3% was insufficient to offset the area loss, resulting in a year‑on‑year production decrease of 0.5%. Xinjiang experienced a contraction in spring wheat area, losing 0.09 million tonnes, with production down 1.5% year‑on‑year.

During the early growing season of 2026 wheat, conditions were affected by persistent autumn rain at sowing and late‑sown weak seedlings. However, after overwintering and green‑up, conditions improved, with favourable matching of sunlight, temperature and water in the main producing zones. Approaching maturity, strong winds and heavy rainfall occurred in parts of the northern region, leading to lodging of wheat in portions of northern Shandong, southwestern Hebei and northern Anhui. Locally in northern Anhui, the lodging proportion approached one quarter, but the impact was mainly on harvest operations and grain quality, with limited effect on production.

Table 2.2 2026 wheat planted area, yield and production forecast for major producing provinces

(3) Early Rice Production

In 2026, the early rice planted area in the eight southern provinces of China is estimated at 5,007 thousand ha, a year‑on‑year decrease of 116 thousand ha (−2.3%). The average yield is estimated at 5,476 kg/ha, up 1.6% year‑on‑year. The yield improvement partially offset the impact of the reduction in planted area, but total production remained below last year's level, estimated at 27.52 million tonnes, down by 0.23 million tonnes (−0.8%) year‑on‑year (Table 2.3).

Hunan and Guangxi were the main sources of the early rice production decline. As the largest early rice‑producing province, Hunan saw its planted area contract by 7.2% and yield decline by 2.0%, resulting in production falling to 7.96 million tonnes, a year‑on‑year decrease of 0.79 million tonnes (−9.1%). The reduction in planted area was the primary cause, but persistent rain and low sunshine since May, compounded by successive heavy rainfall events, further increased downward pressure on yield. In Guangxi, planted area decreased slightly by 0.8%, while periodic heavy rainfall and the "rain‑washing flower" phenomenon during the flowering stage directly affected rice pollination and reduced seed‑setting rate, exerting considerable impact on yield formation. Yield declined by 6.1% year‑on‑year, and production fell to 3.95 million tonnes, down by 0.29 million tonnes (−6.9%).

Jiangxi's early rice area remained largely stable, contracting slightly by 0.5%, while yield increased markedly by 8.8%, pushing production to 7.91 million tonnes, an increase of 0.60 million tonnes (+8.2%) year‑on‑year, making it the primary driver of the early rice production increase. Guangdong recorded increases of 2.6% in both area and yield, with production reaching 5.19 million tonnes, up by 0.26 million tonnes (+5.2%). Hubei saw area expand by 8.5% and yield rise by 4.6%, with production reaching 0.67 million tonnes, up by 0.08 million tonnes (+13.5%). Zhejiang and Fujian also achieved marginal production increases.In 2026, the magnitude of the early rice production decline was limited. Jiangxi and Hubei benefited from periodic improvements in sunlight and temperature conditions and strengthened field management, achieving notable yield increases that underpinned stable early rice production. However, major producing provinces such as Hunan and Guangxi experienced heavy rainfall during critical growth stages, affecting effective panicle formation and pollination and seed setting. Combined with area reductions in some regions, this led to a slight year‑on‑year decline in total production across the eight provinces.

Table 2.3 2026 early rice planted area, yield and production forecast for major producing provinces