This monitoring period (March to May 2026) coincides with the jointing, heading, and early grain-filling stages of winter wheat in France, a critical phase for yield formation. In terms of production components, the planted area of winter wheat expanded slightly, from 5,636 thousand hectares in 2025 to 5,692 thousand hectares in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, continuing the expansion trend seen during the winter sowing period.

 Regarding yield, the average yield of winter wheat in France in 2026 is estimated at 8,035 kg/ha, an increase of 4.15% from 7,715 kg/ha in 2025. Agroclimatic conditions from March to May were generally favorable for yield formation: TEMP was 1.7°C above the 15-year average (15YA), and RADPAR was 1% above average, providing ample thermal and light resources that benefited spike differentiation and grain number formation after jointing. Although RAIN was 33% below average, which posed some constraints on soil moisture, abundant precipitation earlier in the season (January to March rainfall was 9%–27% above the 15YA across the main producing zones) and the deep loamy soils prevalent in these areas meant that the winter-spring rainfall deficit had not yet fully translated into yield losses. As a result, yield still achieved a substantial increase.

 The combined increase in both area and yield drove total production higher. Total winter wheat production in France in 2026 is expected to reach 45.74 million tonnes, up 5.20% from 43.48 million tonnes in the previous year, presenting a pattern of simultaneous increase in area, yield, and production (Figure 2.9).

 Overall, the production situation for winter wheat in France from March to May 2026 was favorable. The planted area remained stable with a slight increase, and above-average temperatures and sufficient sunshine promoted yield formation, leading to a marked yield increase, with total production expected to reach a new high. However, it should be noted that persistently low rainfall from March to May has already caused BIOMSS to be 23% below the 15YA, and both the PDSI and the CWSI are signaling drought conditions. If rainfall does not improve significantly during the grain-filling to maturity period in June, the current high yield forecast faces a downward revision risk. Weather developments in the later stages should therefore be closely monitored for their potential impacts on final yields.

Figure 2.9 Distribution of winter wheat in the main producing regions of France, 2026

Figure 2.10 Distribution of winter wheat yield in the main producing regions of France, 2026