From March to May 2026, Germany was in the transition from winter to spring. Winter wheat was in the key rapid-growth period from green-up to stem elongation, driving an overall increase in NDVI across the country. According to the CropWatch agrometeorological monitoring, the overall conditions presented a "warm–dry–bright" pattern, with pronounced soil-moisture stress: cumulative precipitation totaled 121 mm during the period, 29% below the 15-year average; mean temperature was 10.0°C, 1.0°C above normal; and photosynthetically active radiation was 647 MJ/m², 1% above average. As evapotranspiration demand continued to rise, soil moisture became the primary limiting factor for crop growth, with national cumulative potential biomass 21% below normal. The cropland planting fraction was 99%, 5% higher than the five-year average; VCIx was 0.91, and the CroPI index was 1.10, indicating comparatively favorable agricultural conditions during the period. If drought conditions persist after May, drought risk  will primarily affect the drought-proneeastern sandy soil areas and the southern plateau regions, potentially suppressing winter wheat yield formation and hindering the emergence and establishment of spring-sown crops.

Overall, Germany's winter wheat production shows a pattern of a slight increase in planted area, a modest decline in yield per unit area, and largely stable total production, with agricultural production generally steady and improving (Figures 2.11/2.12). Winter wheat sown area expanded compared with 2025, increasing from 2,486 thousand hectares to 2,552 thousand hectares, up 2.7% year on year. National average wheat yield declined by 3.4% year on year, from 7,979 kg/ha to 7,718 kg/ha. The area expansion partly offset the yield decline; estimates indicate Germany’s total winter wheat production will reach 19.70 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.7%.

Figure 2.11 German winter wheat distribution during March to May 2026

Figure 2.12 German winter wheat yield map during March to May 2026