During March to May 2026, agricultural production in India completed the grain-filling and maturity stages of Rabi-season crops and fully entered the harvesting period. CropWatch remote sensing monitoring shows that the planted area of wheat in India remained at 33,438 thousand hectares this year (Figure 2.13). As harvesting was largely completed, the national average wheat yield reached 3,317 kg/ha, resulting in a total wheat production of 110.93 million tonnes. Compared with the early forecast in the previous monitoring period, when the wheat yield was estimated at 3,494.46 kg/ha, continued agro-climatic constraints during the later growth stages led to a further decline in actual yield. Simultaneously, the production situation for Rabi rice performed robustly. The cultivated area remained stable at 11,344.8 thousand hectares, with the average yield level reaching 4,932 kg/ha and total production estimated at 55.95 million tonnes. Compared to the previous forecasts (a yield of 4,702.4 kg/ha and production of 53.35 million tonnes), Rabi rice exhibited a clear trend of increased production, thanks to excellent irrigation support and well-matched light and thermal conditions in the mid-to-late stages. High-yield zones continued to be firmly distributed across the eastern coastal regions and southern irrigated zones.

Figure 2.13 Distribution and yield level of Rabi wheat in IndiaFigure   2.14 Distribution and yield level of Rabi rice in India

CropWatch indicators reveal that India as a whole continued to exhibit a distinct "dry and warm" climatic pattern during this monitoring period. The RAIN was only 75 mm, which is 13% below the 15-year average (15YA). Throughout March and April, rainfall across the country persisted at extremely low levels, with only intermittent recoveries observed in mid-to-late May. This moisture deficit subjected rain-fed crops, which primarily depend on natural precipitation, to more severe water stress. The TEMP was 29.4°C, which is 0.2°C above the long-term average. A pronounced abnormal high-temperature event occurred in India in early to mid-April, with extreme temperatures reaching 47.6°C, affecting the growth of rice. However, as most Rabi rice had already entered the maturity–harvesting stage, heat stress did not have a significant negative impact on overall production. In contrast, the combined "dry and hot" period served as the direct meteorological cause for the decline in wheat yield. Furthermore, the RADPAR was 7% below average, and the BIOMSS correspondingly decreased by 8%. At the sub-national level, Central India faced the highest moisture stress, with a rainfall deficit of 57% and a 17% decline in BIOMSS. Conversely, the Ganges Plain, a core wheat-producing area, experienced 14% more rainfall in the later stage, driving a slight 3% increase in BIOMSS and partially mitigating the negative impacts of expanding drought from the west. In contrast, Northeast India enjoyed abundant precipitation, with rainfall exceeding the average by 29% and BIOMSS increasing by 13%, providing an excellent hydrothermal foundation for local rice growth.

From the perspective of agronomic indicators, as this period coincided with the seasonal transition from Rabi crops to Kharif (monsoon) crops, the CALF fell to 59%, which is 4% below the 5-year average (5YA). Nevertheless, the VCIx still reached 0.83, and CroPI3 maintained a steady level at 1.0, reflecting that overall crop vigor in the core producing areas remained within a normal range prior to harvest. Localized agricultural drought intensified under the dry and hot conditions of late spring. The national crop water stress index rose to 1.83, the Palmer Drought Severity Index stood at 6.03, and the  ADAC dropped to a very low level of -94.8%, indicating that the phase-specific moisture deficit exerted a substantial negative impact on crop production and that crops are facing intense drought stress.

Overall, India's Rabi-season agricultural production in 2026 showed clear structural differences. Although the wheat planted area expanded slightly, dry and hot weather during the middle and late growth stages eventually led to a slight decline in both yield and total production. In contrast, Rabi rice successfully withstood water stress thanks to stable irrigation support in eastern and southern India. Its late-season performance exceeded expectations, resulting in high-level production growth. As the Kharif-season sowing period begins in June, close attention should be paid to the onset intensity of the southwest monsoon and the pace of rainfall progression across different regions to ensure the smooth establishment of crops in the new season.