The 2026 main growing season for maize in Nigeria has commenced under significant agro-climatic stress, driven primarily by a pronounced and prolonged dry spell that extended through most of the second quarter particularly in the Northern region which is dominant for growing maize. While rainfall began to show tentative signs of improvement from mid-May to late May, and continued into June, the cumulative deficit has fundamentally altered the soil landscape. This has delayed planting, reduced the area under cultivation, and placed the emerging maize crop under severe physiological strain during its most vulnerable early developmental stages. This could be well understood considering reports of key agro-climatic indicators in Nigeria outlined below.

The most critical indicator for this period is the severe rainfall deficit. The March-May period recorded a -46% departure from the 15-Year Average (15YA) which has placed the country in an acute moisture deficit (See: Figure 1). Also, the inconsistent rainfall which has affected the top soil moisture has resulted in a reciprocal effect on the root zone soil moisture particularly in the North Eastern region which has experienced more rainfall deficit (See: Figure 3). 

The temperature anomaly for the second quarter was recorded at 0.0°C departure from 15YA, with a current value of 30.9°C. While this does not represent a heatwave, it is significant considering the rainfall deficit as this increase the atmospheric demand for water. This accelerates the loss of any remaining topsoil moisture through evaporation, rapidly depleting the limited water available for germinating seeds and young seedlings. At this critical germination and early vegetative phase, the sown maize is particularly vulnerable to moisture stress. A combination with the low rainfall may hinder root establishment and potentially causing seedling desiccation.

The CALF indicator shows a negative departure of -14% from the 5-Year Average, with a current value of only 16%. This is a critical, direct indicator signaling farmer response to poor soil conditions. This implies that there is a significant reduction in planted area due to delay planting because the soil was too dry to support germination and early growth. According to the cropped arable land map, most cropland with active cropland in the field are distributed north central region. (See: Figure 2).

In conclusion, the 2026 maize season in Nigeria has been critically compromised by a severe early-season rainfall deficit, which has led to a slow progress in sowing and reduced in planted area. The low soil moisture reserves, and high levels of crop water stress are now threatening the survival and productivity of the delayed and vulnerable maize crop. While an immediate and sustained improvement in precipitation is urgently needed to replenish depleted soil profiles and restore soil vigor, the latest NiMet seasonal climate forecast offers a mixed outlook. According to the NiMet climate forecast, the projection indicates a transition to wetter conditions, with cumulative rainfall expected to be near-to slightly above-average over the central and southern maize belts during the crucial Julu-September growing window. The risks of erratic intra-seasonal dry spell and a possible early cessation of rainfall in the Northern production regions might overall negatively affect the maize production.

Figure 1: Soil Moisture Anomally    

Figure 2: Cropland Area with Active Farming

Figure 3: Root Zone Soil Moisture