From March to May 2026, Russian winter wheat was in the critical green-up, jointing, and grain-filling stages. With snowmelt and rising temperatures, the observability of remote-sensing vegetation index signals improved significantly compared to the winter period, and the analysis during this period has entered a stage where crop conditions can be reliably assessed. Since the monitoring period has not yet covered the maturity and harvest of winter wheat, the current production estimate still carries some uncertainty and will be dynamically updated in subsequent monitoring periods.

Combining national agrometeorological and crop condition indicators with regional soil moisture assessments, a mid-term outlook for Russia’s national winter wheat production was conducted, focusing on the winter wheat conditions in the Caucasus region. According to the spatial distribution map of winter wheat yield levels in the Caucasus region, yield levels in the North Caucasus and areas along the Sea of Azov coast were generally high, whereas yields in the South Caucasus were suppressed by cool, wet, and low-radiation conditions, showing a pronounced "north-high, south-low" differentiation pattern (Figure 2.21). Based on the integration of Caucasus remote-sensing classification results, national agrometeorological patterns, and historical yield data, Russia's total winter wheat production in 2026 is mid-term estimated at 93.79 million tons, down slightly by 0.40% year on year. The planted area is estimated at 30.20 million hectares, basically unchanged year on year (−0.09%), while average yield is estimated at 3,106.00 kg/ha, representing a marginal decrease of 0.31%.

Figure 2.21 Spatial Distribution of Winter Wheat Yield Levels in Russia’s Caucasus Region

Figure 2.22 Soil Moisture Anomalies in Russia’s Caucasus Region

From the perspective of soil moisture conditions, Russia's agrometeorological conditions during this period were generally characterized by "normal to above-average precipitation, normal temperatures, and below-average radiation." National cumulative precipitation was 133.8 mm, which was 3.3% above the 15-year average; the average temperature was 7.1°C, basically close to normal; and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 629.1 MJ/m², about 8.8% below average, mainly due to increased cloud cover associated with above-average precipitation. Potential biomass was 469.8 gDM/m², only 0.6% below average. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) reached 74.6%, which was 4.2% above the five-year average, indicating an expanded cropping scale. The Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) reached 0.82, showing generally favorable crop growth, while the Crop Production Index (CroPI-3) stood at 1.17, pointing to an above-average overall production outlook. Soil moisture anomalies in the Caucasus region (Figure 2.22) further reveal internal moisture-related differentiation. In the map, yellow areas represent slight negative soil moisture anomalies, mainly distributed in the northern Caucasus and parts of the inland areas along the Sea of Azov coast, with localized negative anomalies reaching −0.04 to −0.02, indicating that water deficits persisting from autumn and winter had not yet fully recovered during the green-up stage. Green to dark green areas represent positive soil moisture anomalies, mainly located across most of the South Caucasus and the Black Sea coastal areas, with anomalies ranging from approximately 0.02 to 0.12, suggesting that above-average spring precipitation had made surface soil significantly wetter than average in these areas.

Combined with Figure 2.21 and Figure 2.22, the high-yield-potential areas in the North Caucasus overlap to some extent with negative soil moisture anomaly areas; although spring precipitation recovery alleviated the drought, antecedent soil moisture replenishment still lagged behind. In contrast, although most of the South Caucasus experienced widespread positive soil moisture anomalies, persistent low temperatures combined with the most severe PAR deficit nationwide significantly suppressed grain filling and development. Under low-radiation conditions, excessive soil moisture conversely exacerbated the decline in light-use efficiency.

On a regional basis, the North Caucasus continued to face the dual pressure of persisting autumn drought and insufficient precipitation during the green-up stage; an 11% deficit in cumulative precipitation during the autumn sowing period resulted in severe antecedent soil moisture shortages, with surface soil moisture dominated by negative anomalies. The earlier water deficits continued to affect tillering and the formation of effective spikes. The South Caucasus had a favorable autumn sowing foundation, with spring cumulative precipitation 40.8% above average and CALF reaching 91.4% (+11.3%). Surface soil moisture was dominated by positive anomalies, and crop growth was robust. However, low temperature (−1.0°C) combined with a PAR deficit (−16.9%) significantly suppressed grain filling and development, and excessive soil moisture under cool and low-radiation conditions conversely raised the risk of root-zone environmental stress. In the Central Black Earth region, agrometeorological conditions were the most favorable nationwide, with precipitation close to normal and temperatures slightly cooler than average. Potential biomass was the highest in the country at 516.6 gDM/m², and CALF remained at a high level of 91.6%, supporting steady winter wheat growth during the green-up to jointing stages. The Middle Volga region recorded above-average precipitation (+7.1%) and temperatures (+0.8°C). These warm and humid conditions promoted biomass accumulation to 482.8 gDM/m², favoring spring sowing and winter wheat green-up. In the Urals and Western Volga, snowmelt from the overwintering period effectively replenished surface soil moisture, maintaining relatively favorable antecedent soil moisture and stable soil moisture conditions during this period.

The monitoring results collectively show that the "dry-in-the-north and wet-in-the-south" soil moisture differentiation in the Caucasus region corresponds closely with the "north-high, south-low" yield pattern. The favorable coordination of water and thermal conditions in the Central Black Earth and Middle Volga regions served as the main stabilizer for national production. Meanwhile, severe drought in the Northwest region does not currently pose a significant threat to national production due to its relatively small share of planted area. However, if precipitation remains below average in the later stages, attention should be paid to its lagged impacts on spring crop emergence.