From March to May 2026, South Africa’s main maize-producing regions were in the critical late-summer to early-autumn growth stages, and the national agricultural production outlook was generally favorable. Total precipitation reached 264.0 mm, significantly higher than the 15-year average by 69.8%. The mean air temperature was 16.8°C (0.7°C below average), providing ample moisture while reducing evaporative demand. As a result, potential accumulated biomass reached 736.6 g dry matter/m² (+31.7%). However, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 15.8% below average (due to increased cloud cover), which became the main limiting factor for yield formation. The cropland planting ratio was 92.7% (+8.3%), the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was as high as 0.93, and the Crop Production Situation Index (CroPI) reached 1.21, indicating strong cropland utilization and vigorous vegetation performance.

Changes in area and production: Forecasts indicate that South Africa’s maize planted area in 2026 will be 4,136 thousand hectares, a 3.0% increase from 2025 (4,016 thousand hectares). Yield is expected to reach 5,676 kg/ha (+7.2%), and total production is projected at 23.48 million tons (+10.4%). The combined increase in area and yield is driving a substantial rise in total output (Figure 2.23).

Crop condition signals show that, from March to April, the national Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was generally close to the long-term average. In April, some areas experienced a slight dip due to short-term rainfall fluctuations or early soybean harvests, but NDVI rebounded quickly in May. In the eastern maize zone, NDVI peaked during March–April and began senescence and harvesting in May; in the western maize zone, high greenness persisted through May, indicating clear spatial heterogeneity. Overall, maize growth conditions during this period were good, and sufficient moisture supported strong grain filling. However, attention should be paid to the potential constraint of below-normal radiation on final yield, as well as drying conditions during harvest after rainfall declines in late May.

Figure 2.23. Forecast of South Africa’s maize production in 2026