From March to May 2026, Ukraine’s main winter wheat areas were in the critical growth stages from green-up to stem elongation. Nationwide agrometeorological conditions were characterized by “water stress as the dominant constraint, slightly limited radiation, and generally normal temperatures.” Total precipitation was 105.2 mm, 28.6% below the 15-year average. Potential cumulative biomass reached 422.8 g dry matter/m² (20.6% below average), making it the key limiting factor. By contrast, the mean air temperature was 9.6°C (only 0.4°C lower than normal) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 656.7 MJ/m² (3.1% below normal), both close to the long-term mean and not adding substantial additional stress.

Changes in area and production: Forecasts indicate that Ukraine’s wheat planted area in 2026 will be 7,200 thousand ha, a strong increase of 15.8% from 2025 (6,220 thousand ha). However, yield is projected at 3,558 kg/ha (−15.0%), and total production at 25.618 million tonnes (−1.6%). The sharp expansion in area is partly offset by the pronounced decline in yield, leaving national production essentially stable with a slight decrease.

Yield risk in a rainfed system: Ukraine’s winter wheat is almost entirely dependent on natural rainfall. National irrigation coverage is only about 4–5%, and the main wheat-producing regions lack reliable irrigation. The nearly 30% precipitation deficit during March–May directly reduced soil moisture and intensified water stress after green-up. The NDVI time series corroborates this pattern: March was near normal, April dropped markedly, and although May showed some recovery, 13.0% of the area still maintained moderate negative anomalies (about −0.15), and 0.7% exhibited severe hot spots. A continuous belt of negative anomalies was especially prominent in the central and eastern regions. The southern wheat areas performed relatively better (Fig. 2.24), while the north faced higher yield-loss risk due to the combination of precipitation shortages and weaker vegetation. The central region had the highest potential but was clearly constrained in April. A cropland planting proportion of 92.7% (3.8% above average) suggests that sowing area was not significantly affected, and the Crop Production Situation Index (CroPI) was 1.08; nevertheless, yield formation has been materially constrained by water stress.

Under a rainfed production system, the March–May precipitation deficit has an irreversible impact on winter wheat yield. The large increase in planted area cannot fully compensate for the yield decline, resulting in overall production that is roughly stable but slightly lower (−1.6%). If rainfall during the subsequent grain-filling period (June) also remains below normal, downward pressure on production is likely to intensify.

Figure 2.24. Spatial distribution map of winter wheat yield in Ukraine, 2026.