During this monitoring period (March to May 2026), agricultural production in the United States was in the critical growth stage from winter wheat green-up to grain-filling and maturity, while maize, soybean, and spring wheat sowing commenced successively. CropWatch agro-meteorological monitoring indicated that the national cropland was generally drier than normal, with precipitation of approximately 213 mm, 16% below the 15-year average for the same period, accompanied by temperatures 1.7°C above average and photosynthetically active radiation 5% below average, which collectively led to a 6% reduction in national potential accumulated biomass. Crop condition monitoring results showed that the national NDVI profile mainly exhibited a pattern of "above-average in the early stage and declining in the middle and late stages." Driven by the warm winter, NDVI was notably higher than both the previous year and the five-year average in early to mid-March; however, beginning in April, it declined continuously due to insufficient effective precipitation and fell below the five-year average in May. The national maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) stood at 0.82, the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 60%, and the crop production index (CPI) was 1.08, slightly above the average threshold. Overall, national crop growth was characterized by "sufficient heat but persistently constrained water availability." As drought conditions spread from south to north, inadequate soil moisture supply became the key limiting factor for yield formation.

At the regional scale, the core winter wheat production areas generally facing drought stress. The Southern Plains was the wheat production region most severely affected by drought during this monitoring period. Precipitation in this region was only 144 mm (31% below average), and temperatures were 2.5°C above average; the sustained combination of rainfall deficit and high temperatures led to a 15% reduction in potential biomass, a VCIx of only 0.65, and a CALF 6% below normal, presenting the typical crop condition signature of "early green-up but weak grain-filling" and constituting the primary area responsible for the decline in national yield. The Northern Plains received only 92 mm of precipitation (36% below average), with biomass reduced by 19%, and crop growth was similarly suppressed by drought conditions. In contrast, the Blue Grass region and the Corn Belt experienced relatively limited precipitation deficits (–6% and –10%, respectively), with CALF remaining at normal levels (93% and 55%, respectively), VCIx ranging from 0.87 to 0.90, and CPI exceeding the national average, reflecting comparatively favorable water–heat matching and crop growth conditions.

CropWatch remote sensing monitoring and forecasting indicate that in 2026, the harvested area of winter wheat in the United States decreased by 1% year-on-year to 12.952 million hectares; the yield was 5,532 kg/ha, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year; and total production is estimated at 71.65 million tonnes, a year-on-year reduction of approximately 4.17% (Figure 2.25). This production decline resulted from the combined effects of reduced harvested area and lower yield, with the sharp decline in yield being the primary driver of the total production shortfall.

Figure 2.25  Distribution map of winter wheat yield in the United States, 2025–2026