This reporting period covers March–May 2026. Using multi-source satellite remote-sensing data, ground observations, and meteorological data—supported by the global agricultural remote-sensing monitoring cloud service platform (CropWatch Cloud)—We assessed global production conditions for major grain and oil crops during May–July 2026. It provides yield forecasts for maize and soybean in the Northern Hemisphere and rice in the equatorial region, rechecks Northern Hemisphere wheat production, examined extreme weather events that significantly affected agricultural production and the evolving El Niño situation, and conducted high-resolution remote-sensing monitoring and verification of planting area, yield, and total production for major crops in 20 key producing countries (selected from the top 20 countries in global grain output and the top 15 countries by population).

From May to July 2026, crops in the Northern Hemisphere and tropical regions were at their peak growth stage. Global agroclimatic conditions showed pronounced regional differentiation. Major precipitation-deficit areas included the East African Highlands; the West African Gulf of Guinea–Sahel belt; most of Western Europe; western India and Pakistan in South Asia; the inland parts of central-eastern Brazil; the Pampas of Argentina; and the western United States. Soil moisture declined markedly across about 53.2% of global cropland, and the overall share of cropland exposed to high-risk moisture stress (return period longer than five years) showed an upward trend. In contrast, precipitation was above normal in eastern Turkey; European Russia and Siberia; Canada; Mongolia; central and eastern China; Japan; and southeastern Australia.

During the monitoring period, the global Crop Production Situation Index (CroPI-5) averaged about 1.06, remaining above the long-term mean, but with clear spatial divergence, characterized by a pattern of “notably favorable in the Southern Hemisphere, near normal in the Northern Hemisphere, and slightly weak in the tropics.” West Africa–the Gulf of Guinea was distinctly weak due to a delayed onset of the rainy season, while the eastern Mediterranean coast, North Africa, southern South America, and Australia were markedly favorable.

Global total production of the four major crops (maize, rice, wheat, and soybean) increased significantly: wheat and soybean led in production gains, maize posts steady growth, while rice showed a slight marginal change. Total production of the four major crops reached 3.32016 billion tonnes, up 50.83 million tonnes year-on-year from 2025, an increase of 1.5%. Specifically, global maize production was 1.22148 billion tonnes, up 25.19 million tonnes (+2.1%); rice production was 759.78 million tonnes, down 18.92 million tonnes (−2.3%); wheat production was 846.70 million tonnes, up 24.04 million tonnes (+2.9%); and soybean production was 456.20 million tonnes, up 20.06 million tonnes (+4.6%). China’s winter wheat and maize production were 140.86 million tonnes and 266.18 million tonnes, respectively, contributing 16.6% and 21.8% of global wheat and maize production.

A strengthening El Niño is expected to persist through the second half of 2026. In the next monitoring period, it will be necessary to closely track the evolution of this strong El Niño event and its differentiated impacts on global agriculture. Key priorities include: monitoring precipitation changes during the late grain-filling and harvest stages of autumn crops in major Northern Hemisphere staple-producing regions such as the United States, Russia, and Ukraine; assessing soil moisture conditions and irrigation security in key growing areas entering critical development stages, including Western Europe and India; and tracking summer precipitation, reservoir storage, river-network recharge, and soil moisture recovery in major rice-producing countries to evaluate potential impacts on crop performance and yield prospects.