May–July 2026 coincides with the maturity–harvest period of winter wheat in the Northern Hemisphere, the jointing–grain-filling period of spring wheat, the tasseling–silking period of maize, and the tillering–heading period of rice; in the Southern Hemisphere, soybean and maize are approaching the end of harvest, winter wheat in Argentina and Australia is at emergence–tillering–overwintering, and wet-season rice in the tropics has entered its peak growth phase. Based on CroPI-5 (May–July 2026), the global crop production situation remained overall above the baseline, with a global composite mean of 1.06, higher than the previous monitoring period (about 1.05); spatially, the pattern is characterized by markedly favorable conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, near-average conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, and slightly weak conditions in the tropics. Southern Hemisphere CroPI-5 has been significantly above average for two consecutive years (1.18 in 2025 and 1.15 in 2026); the Northern Hemisphere stands at 1.04 and the tropics at 0.96. Regionally, the pronounced divergence concentrates in three belts: most of South Asia–Southeast Asia under significant pressure (India 0.61, Thailand 0.79, Laos 0.75); West Africa–the Gulf of Guinea markedly weak owing to the late onset of the rainy season (Senegal 0.65, Togo 0.66); and the Mediterranean coast, North Africa, southern South America, and Australia significantly favorable (Turkey 1.50, Argentina 1.43, Australia 1.22) (Figures 1.8 and 1.9).

Figure 1.8  Global and zonal CroPI-5 time series, 2021–2026 (May–July)

Figure 1.9  Spatial distribution of global CroPI-5, May–July 2026

East Africa: main-season drought pressure, weakening situation

CroPI-5 across the Ethiopian Plateau, Kenya, and Tanzania mostly ranged between 0.84 and 1.07; Ethiopia fell as low as 0.84, as severe main-season rainfall deficits directly stressed the jointing–heading of highland cereals, and the regional situation weakened markedly relative to the previous monitoring period; Uganda and Kenya remained near the baseline (1.03 and 1.01). Uganda recorded rainfall of −26% and biomass of −15%, yet its production situation stays near the baseline, indicating a degree of resilience. The main (Meher) sowing season in Ethiopia has opened; if rainfall deficits persist through August–September, downside risks will grow further.

West Africa and the Sahel: late rainy season, delayed planting

CroPI-5 in Senegal, Togo, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Ghana was as low as 0.65–0.85, with CALF 11%–20% below the 5-year average, as the sluggish onset of the rainy season delayed sowing; Nigeria stood at 0.94, while irrigated areas supported Niger's CroPI-5 at 1.65. The region constitutes the most concentrated below-average belt in the Northern Hemisphere tropics this period, and August rainfall will determine the final outcome. Regional CALF is generally only 13%–70%, and rainfed agriculture amplifies the impact of the rainfall deficit; Nigeria's biomass is −22%, with mid-season growth already suppressed.

Southern Africa: generally stable dry season

Mozambique was favorable at 1.17; Malawi (0.79) and Madagascar (0.86) were below average. Summer crops have been harvested, and the below-average signals mainly reflect insufficient dry-season rainfall; the implications for next season's soil moisture reserves warrant continued attention. Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa posted significantly high CroPI-5 values of 1.41, 1.48, and 1.50, respectively, with the main-season maize harvest complete and planted fractions above the 5-year average; moisture conditions for winter wheat sowing in South Africa were favorable (rainfall +35%). Madagascar recorded rainfall of −34% and biomass of −16%, carrying relatively greater production pressure.

North America: Corn Belt broadly normal, West Coast under pressure

The United States registered CroPI-5 of 1.03, with most of the central Corn Belt at 0.95–1.15 under fair tasseling–silking conditions; the West Coast–Southwest fell below 0.85. The Canadian Prairie provinces stood at 1.07, with favorable conditions for spring wheat grain filling. Mexico was favorable at 1.17. Canada's CALF was 100% (+4%), with well-matched water and heat during spring wheat grain filling; Mexico's CALF was 82% (+10%), with spring maize growing steadily.

South America: Brazil steady, Argentina favorable but moisture tightening

Brazil posted CroPI-5 of 1.06, with main producing areas in the central–west at 0.95–1.15 and a smooth second-season maize harvest; Argentina reached 1.43, the highest among major producing countries globally, with normal winter wheat emergence–tillering and a markedly higher planted fraction, though Pampas rainfall was 17% below average and supplementary moisture will be needed in late tillering; Uruguay stood at 1.13 and Paraguay at 1.10. The dry pattern in central–eastern Brazil may affect soil moisture reserves for soybean sowing (September–November); Argentine winter wheat is entering the water-demand-critical tillering stage, Uruguay's rainfall is −30%, and early-season moisture supply for winter crops is tight.

Caribbean: stable

CroPI-5 across the Caribbean was generally 0.95–1.10 (Cuba 1.04), indicating a stable production situation. Cuba's CALF was 100% (+5%), with normal planting intensity and crop condition; under below-average rainfall, stable production relies mainly on irrigation support.

Northeast Asia: Northeast favorable, central China weaker

China registered CroPI-5 of 1.03; the Northeast Plain maize–rice zone benefited from well-matched rainfall and heat, with CroPI-5 mostly 1.05–1.25; North China–Huanghuai and the middle–lower Yangtze, affected by episodic drought and reduced sunshine, were mostly 0.85–1.05. Japan stood at 1.02 and Mongolia at 1.57. China's CALF was 97% (+5%); autumn crops are in a critical growth period, with condition mainly dragged down by drought and low sunshine in the Huanghuai–middle and lower Yangtze. Mongolia's rainfall was +11%, with favorable water–heat matching for rainfed farming; Japan's rainfall was +18%, with good conditions for rice heading–grain filling.

Southeast Asia: peninsula weak, archipelago normal

Thailand 0.79, Laos 0.75, Cambodia 0.89, Myanmar 0.87 (cloudy with low sunshine), the Philippines 0.91, and Indonesia 0.97. Early wet-season rice condition was weak in parts of the peninsula. Vietnam's CroPI-5 was 0.90, with summer–autumn rice slightly weak; persistent cloudiness and low sunshine markedly affected rice tillering in Myanmar, and transplanting–tillering progress in Laos was slow. Regional rice has entered the tillering–jointing peak; subsequent typhoons and rainfall fluctuations will dominate the production outlook.

South Asia: lowest values globally, severely delayed summer sowing

India's CroPI-5 of 0.61 was the lowest among major countries globally, with CALF at only 46% (−26%); the late-advancing monsoon markedly delayed summer sowing, and a contrast is evident between western–central rainfall deficits and near-average conditions in the eastern Ganges Plain; Pakistan stood at 0.87 and Bangladesh at 0.84. In terms of moisture, the CWSI of India and Bangladesh was 0.44 and 0.42, respectively — below the global mean and consistent with the late monsoon — while Pakistan's 0.52 was near the mean. Subsequent monsoon rainfall and compensatory sowing will determine the Kharif-season yield ceiling. Nepal posted CroPI-5 of 1.19 and CALF of 91% (+17%), with rapid rice transplanting — the region's only bright spot; Sri Lanka, at 0.96, was near normal.

Central Asia: north favorable

Kazakhstan stood at 1.15, with above-average rainfall and biomass +11% in the northern spring wheat zone. Uzbekistan (1.56), Afghanistan (1.71), and Turkmenistan (1.93) saw markedly improved water and heat conditions in irrigated zones, with the production situation clearly better than during the droughts of the previous two years.

Western Europe: heat–drought strikes summer crops, winter wheat largely secured

France 1.02, Germany 1.09, Spain 1.17, Italy 1.16, and the United Kingdom 1.03. Heat and drought mainly struck summer crops such as maize and sunflower at jointing–tasseling; the winter wheat harvest is essentially complete, and heat-accelerated ripening adversely affected grain weight — the lagged effect of regional biomass 10%–22% below average is discussed in the next section. In Northern Europe, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark posted CroPI-5 of 1.08, 1.03, and 1.07, respectively, with heat–drought disturbances concentrated south of 50°N.

Eastern Europe: Black Sea steady, interior favorable

Ukraine 1.13, Romania 1.14, Poland 1.13, Belarus 1.10, and Russia 1.07. Cool–dry conditions along the northern Black Sea coast slightly suppressed summer crops; the Russian interior recorded rainfall +17% and biomass +6%, with favorable conditions for spring wheat heading–grain filling. Combined with the winter wheat classification and yield remote-sensing monitoring results for the Caucasus, Russia's winter wheat production situation is overall stable (see the dedicated Russia section). Hungary recorded rainfall of −38% and biomass of −20%, suppressing summer crop growth, yet its CroPI-5 of 1.00 remains near the baseline; Serbia 1.17 and Bulgaria 1.08 — the Balkans fared better than the Carpathian Basin.

Mediterranean: eastern shores markedly favorable

Turkey stood at 1.50, with CWSI reaching 0.70 — the highest level globally this period — under an excellent water–heat match; Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia in North Africa ranged 1.58–1.82, mainly reflecting a restorative rebound in the post-season assessment of winter crops; Egypt 1.19. Winter crops in the eastern Mediterranean–West Asia have been harvested, with markedly favorable production assessments: Syria 1.98 (rainfall +37%), Lebanon 1.78, and Greece 1.23; Iraq 1.93 and Iran 1.66, with markedly improved moisture conditions in irrigated zones. North Africa's high CroPI is driven mainly by a restorative rebound in CALF (Morocco +66%, Algeria +63%).

Oceania: southeast favorable

Australia posted CroPI-5 of 1.22, with above-average rainfall in the southeastern grain belt and favorable moisture conditions; locally dry in the far southwest, the overall situation was favorable. Australia's CALF was 91% (+6%); winter wheat sowing is complete and the crop has entered tillering–jointing, with rainfall +13% providing ample soil moisture reserves; subsequent spring rainfall will be key to yield levels in the wheat belt.