During the monitoring period (May–July 2026), global agroclimatic conditions exhibited pronounced regional differentiation. In terms of precipitation, the East African Plateau, the Gulf of Guinea–Sahel belt of West Africa, most of Western Europe, western India and Pakistan in South Asia, the interior of central–eastern Brazil, the Argentine Pampas, and the western United States were the major deficit zones with markedly below-average rainfall; above-average precipitation prevailed in eastern Turkey, the European part of Russia and Siberia, Canada, Mongolia, central–eastern China, Japan, and southeastern Australia. Regarding temperature, anomalous heat in Western Europe was most prominent, and northern Central Asia was also significantly warmer than average, whereas the Black Sea coast and southern Brazil–northern Argentina were slightly cooler, with conditions close to average over most other areas. Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was generally stable: higher than average in Western Europe under sparse cloud cover, and lower in Siberian Russia, southeastern China, and Myanmar. Driven by the combined water–heat regime, potential biomass was markedly below average over most of Western Europe, most of India, the Gulf of Guinea coast, much of East Africa, northeastern Brazil, and the Pampas, and markedly above average from the Volga to the Urals and Siberia in Russia, in the Huanghuaihai region and Loess Plateau of China, in southeastern Australia, and in South Africa, where agroclimatic conditions were favorable (Figure 1.1).

Figure 1.1  Agroclimatic indicators for May–July 2026 and departures from the 15-year average (a: accumulated rainfall; b: average temperature; c: photosynthetically active radiation; d: potential biomass)

East Africa

The main rainy season on the East African Plateau suffered a pronounced rainfall deficit. Deficits were most severe in the semi-arid lowlands of northwestern Ethiopia and the agro-pastoral zones of the southeast, with Kenya and Tanzania also below average. Temperatures were generally above average, and sparse cloud cover increased sunshine duration, leaving PAR slightly above average. Potential biomass declined widely across the plateau farmlands and the lowlands. May–July coincides with the critical jointing-to-heading stage of highland cereals, so the moisture deficit directly stressed yield formation; the main season opens in August, and whether rainfall recovers then will determine planting progress.

West Africa and the Sahel

Precipitation was broadly and markedly below average along the Gulf of Guinea coast and in the western Sahel. The largest deficits formed a contiguous deficit belt across the Nigerian Sahel and the Sudanian savanna, while the southern coastal rainforest zone was near average. Temperatures were above average region-wide, and PAR was near average. Potential biomass declined generally, most markedly in the Sahel belt, indicating unfavorable agroclimatic conditions. The rainy season arrived late, and sowing of millet, sorghum, and maize was clearly delayed; if effective rainfall fails to materialize in August, the risk of production losses across the western Sahel–Gulf of Guinea will rise markedly.

Southern Africa

Southern Africa was in its dry season, with pronounced spatial contrasts in rainfall. The central and southern plateaus of Zambia, Mozambique as a whole, Malawi, and Madagascar were markedly drier than average; southern South Africa has a Mediterranean climate and received clearly above-average rainfall, with the maize belt the most water-abundant. Temperatures were close to average over most areas, and PAR near average but below average over most of South Africa. Potential biomass declined in Mozambique, Malawi, and Madagascar, where agroclimatic conditions were unfavorable, while South Africa's agroclimatic conditions were comparatively favorable. Summer crops have been fully harvested, so the rainfall deficit mainly affects soil moisture reserves; moisture conditions for winter wheat sowing in South Africa are good.

North America

North American precipitation deficits concentrated in the west and north: markedly dry in the Northwest, the Southwest, and California, and slightly dry in the Northern Plains and the Northeast; above-average rainfall occurred in the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast. Temperatures were close to average over most areas and slightly warm in the Southwest. PAR was near average to slightly below. Potential biomass declined in the west and north and increased in the lower Mississippi Valley and the central–eastern areas. The Canadian Prairie provinces received above-average rainfall, slightly below average in the west, and Mexico was near average. Maize is at tasseling–silking and spring wheat at grain filling; moisture in the central Corn Belt was generally adequate, but persistent dryness in the west–northwest is accelerating depletion of soil moisture reserves, warranting attention to water stress during spring wheat grain filling.

South America

In South America, favorable agroclimatic conditions were confined to the Paraná basin of southern Brazil, where rainfall was above average, temperatures below average, potential biomass above average, and agroclimatic conditions overall favorable. Second-season maize in Brazil is being harvested; inland dryness has limited impact on harvest operations, but soil moisture reserves for soybean sowing from September warrant attention. Winter wheat in Argentina is at emergence–tillering, and persistently below-average rainfall is unfavorable for early growth.

Caribbean

Agroclimatic differentiation across the Caribbean was small. Rainfall was markedly below average, temperatures above average, PAR near average, potential biomass down, and moisture conditions tighter than average. The region is in its wet season; the rainfall deficit had some impact on sugarcane and other crops, though overall limited.

Northeast Asia

Precipitation in Northeast Asia showed pronounced spatial contrast and was generally above average: Northeast China, the Huanghuaihai, the Loess Plateau, and South China were the main surplus zones, whereas the Southwest, Gansu–Xinjiang, and Hainan were markedly dry. Temperatures were close to average over most areas, slightly warm in Gansu–Xinjiang. PAR was below average in most areas. Potential biomass increased in the Huanghuaihai and the Loess Plateau and declined in the Southwest and Gansu–Xinjiang. Japan and Mongolia received above-average rainfall. Summer grain has been harvested; autumn crops — maize at jointing–tasseling and rice at tillering — benefited from well-matched rainfall and heat in the Northeast, while drought and reduced sunshine in the Huanghuai–middle and lower Yangtze region adversely affected autumn crop growth.

Southeast Asia

Rainfall over the Indochinese Peninsula was near average to slightly below: Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia near average; Myanmar above average but under persistent cloudy, low-sunshine conditions with markedly low PAR. The Malay Archipelago was markedly dry, with deficits in Java, West Papua, Kalimantan, and Sumatra, and also along the central Vietnamese coast. Temperatures were near average over most areas. PAR was generally low on both the peninsula and the archipelago. Potential biomass declined in Java, West Papua, and elsewhere, and was near average on the peninsula. Wet-season rice is at transplanting–tillering; reduced sunshine suppresses early growth on the peninsula, and dryness in the archipelago somewhat affects oil palm and other perennial crops.

South Asia

Most of South Asia was a pronounced rainfall-deficit zone. The largest deficits occurred in the northwestern Indian dry region, with Rajasthan–Gujarat and the eastern coast also below average, the Ganges Plain slightly below, and the western coast near average; Pakistan was markedly dry country-wide, most severely in Balochistan and the lower Indus. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were near average, Nepal slightly below. Temperatures were near average over most areas and slightly warm in India and Pakistan. PAR was near average. Potential biomass declined in India and Pakistan. The southwest monsoon advanced late and summer sowing was markedly delayed, with insufficient moisture at rice and cotton sowing; subsequent monsoon rainfall will determine the yield ceiling.

Central Asia

Precipitation in Central Asia was above average in the north and below average in the south. Kazakhstan was markedly wetter, with abundant water and heat in the northern spring wheat zone and significantly above-average temperatures; Uzbekistan and the eastern hill areas were markedly wetter, while the Aral Sea cotton zone was slightly dry; Turkmenistan and Afghanistan were wetter, and Iran drier. Temperatures in Kazakhstan were significantly above average and near average elsewhere. PAR was near average to slightly below. Potential biomass increased in Kazakhstan and the irrigated zones. Spring wheat in the north is at jointing–grain filling under favorable water–heat conditions, but above-average northern temperatures call for vigilance against heat-forced ripening during grain filling; winter wheat in the southern irrigated zones has been harvested.

Western Europe

Western Europe experienced pronounced warm-dry weather. France saw markedly below-average rainfall and significantly above-average temperatures, with deficits and marked warming across its eight agricultural regions; the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Hungary were all warm and dry. Sparse cloud cover raised PAR. Potential biomass declined region-wide, most markedly in France, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Winter wheat is at grain filling–maturity–harvest, with the warm-dry weather accelerating ripening and shortening the grain-filling period. Maize, sunflower, and other summer crops are at jointing–tasseling under evident water stress; downside production risks warrant attention.

Eastern Europe

Rainfall in Eastern Europe showed pronounced spatial differentiation. Ukraine was slightly dry, with larger deficits in the eastern Carpathian region and the north; Poland slightly dry, Belarus near average, and western Romania slightly dry; Russia was markedly wet, most clearly in the middle Volga and the Urals. Temperatures in Ukraine were slightly below average and near average elsewhere. PAR was below average in most areas. Potential biomass declined in Ukraine and increased in Russia, with the largest gains in the middle Volga and the Urals. The winter wheat harvest is essentially complete and summer crops are at jointing–tasseling; moisture is abundant in the Russian interior and conditions favorable for spring wheat grain filling, while moisture along the northern Black Sea coast is tight.

Mediterranean

Mediterranean rainfall split east–west. Lebanon and Syria were wetter; North Africa was markedly drier, most severely Morocco; Turkey was markedly wetter with below-average temperatures — an excellent water–heat match. Temperatures in North Africa were slightly above average. PAR was near average. Potential biomass increased in Turkey and declined in North Africa. Winter wheat has been harvested, and conditions for yield formation in Turkey were favorable; summer crops in the eastern Mediterranean are growing under good water–heat matching.

Oceania

Australia received generally above-average rainfall: markedly wet in the southeastern wheat belt, the dry interior, and the subtropical semi-humid zone, with only the southwestern wheat belt slightly dry. Temperatures were near average to slightly above. PAR was below average. Potential biomass increased markedly in the southeastern wheat belt, the dry interior, and the subtropical zones, and declined in the southwest. Wheat and barley have been sown and are entering tillering–jointing with ample soil moisture reserves and good early growth; slightly lower rainfall in the southwestern wheat belt warrants monitoring of moisture conditions during tillering.