(1) Global croplands generally drier than normal

Based on SMAP root-zone soil moisture monitoring data, the spatial distribution of global soil moisture anomalies from May to July was generally dominated by drier-than-normal conditions. Significant negative anomalies appeared in southern China, western Europe, Central Asia, South Asia, and the central and western United States, while wetter-than-normal areas were mainly concentrated in eastern Europe, northern China, and localized regions such as the Philippines in the tropics (Fig. 1.2a). From June to July 2026, approximately 53.2% of global cropland areas experienced a notable decline in soil moisture content (Fig. 1.2b). In July 2026, the global cropland soil moisture anomaly was generally drier than normal, with soil moisture in north-central China, India, the northern United States, and Europe lower than the multi-year average for the same period, while southeastern Australia and Argentina recorded wetter-than-normal conditions (Fig. 1.2c). CropWatch monitoring results show that since June 2026, the proportion of global cropland areas under high water-stress risk (return period > 5 years) has shown an overall upward trend. The proportion of global cropland areas under relatively low water-stress risk (return period of 2–5 years) remained at a high level in July (Fig. 1.3a). During the May–July monitoring period, agricultural drought risk in Africa was higher than in other continents, followed by Europe and Asia (Fig. 1.3b). In early May, high-risk droughts with a return period of ≥10 years appeared in the Sahel region of Africa, northern Madagascar, and scattered areas in the northern United States (Fig. 1.4a). In June, global agricultural drought conditions showed signs of alleviation (Fig. 1.4b). In late July, agricultural drought expanded extensively across Africa, Europe, the western United States, southern China, and Southeast Asia, with high-risk droughts of ≥10-year return period occurring in parts of eastern Africa (Fig. 1.4c).

(a) Root-zone soil moisture anomaly (May–July 2026)

(b) Root-zone soil moisture anomaly change from June to July, 2026

(c) Root-zone soil moisture anomaly (July 2026)

Figure 1.2 Global cropland root-zone soil moisture anomaly (relative to the 2016–2025 multi-year average)

(a) Agricultural drought risk dynamics of farmland water stress by global agro-ecological zones

(b) Mean agricultural drought risk of farmland water stress by agro-ecological zones across continents during the May–July monitoring period

Figure 1.3 The risk of crop water stress for global and continental agro-ecological zones

(a) 2026‑05‑01 ~ 2026‑05‑08

(b) 2026‑06‑02 ~ 2026‑06‑09

(c) 2026‑07‑20 ~ 2026‑07‑27

Figure 1.4 Spatial pattern of agricultural drought risk of crop water stress across global agro-ecological zones

(2) Cropland surface temperatures shown a contrasting pattern of "higher in the north, lower in the south"

Since July 2026, global cropland temperature conditions have shown notable interhemispheric differentiation. Based on the TCI (Temperature Condition Index) time-series curves and the NOAA Week 32 global TCI spatial distribution product for 2026, regions such as Europe, Oceania, and northern South America have exhibited persistently rising TCI values, indicating cropland temperatures significantly higher than the multi-year average for the same period. In Europe, TCI peaked in mid-June and then declined rapidly, with heat stress intensifying. Africa, North America, and most of Asia have also been affected by varying degrees of above-normal temperatures, with the global mean TCI remaining at a high level above 40%. In contrast, cropland temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere have been generally lower than the multi-year average, with southern South America and other regions showing high TCI values, corresponding to extensive blue pixels on the spatial map and indicating cooler-than-normal conditions. Entering August, regional differentiation in TCI across the Northern Hemisphere has further widened: TCI in Europe dropped rapidly with heat stress worsening further, while the Southern Hemisphere has remained relatively cool. This contrasting pattern of opposite temperature anomalies between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is pronounced, and it echoes the widespread drought background in the Northern Hemisphere reflected by soil moisture anomalies. The combination of high temperatures and soil moisture deficits is likely to pose potential stress risks to major crops in the Northern Hemisphere.

Figure 1.5 Spatial pattern of vegetation temperature condition index (TCI) in global croplands

Figure 1.6 Temperature condition index (August 3–9, 2026) in global croplands

（3)  CropWatch ENSO 2026/27 – Global Agricultural Risk Summary

El Niño 2026/27 continues to strengthen and is expected to remain in strong to very strong conditions through early 2027. CropWatch’s phenology‑aligned ENSO exposure analysis shows that the most significant impacts will occur where ENSO anomalies coincide with the growth stages of major cereals. The six ENSO impact maps (A–F) included in this bulletin summarize the spatial distribution of negative impacts (red) and positive impacts (blue) for maize, rice, and wheat across both the full crop cycle and the reproductive phase.

Maize (Maps a–b)

Negative ENSO impacts dominate key maize‑producing regions in North America, Central and Eastern Europe, China, and Central Asia, where heat and moisture deficits overlap with the growth phase (June–September). Positive conditions are observed in South Asia, West Africa, and tropical Brazil. In Central America, El Niño has already produced prolonged drought and an extended canícula, posing a serious threat to Postrera maize planting (August–September) and increasing the likelihood of poor establishment and reduced yields.

Rice (Maps c–d)

Strong negative anomalies affect China, Central Asia, and Europe, coinciding with heading and flowering (July–August). Positive anomalies dominate South Asia, West Africa, and parts of South America, supporting favorable moisture conditions during August–October.

Wheat (Maps d–f)

Negative impacts are widespread across China, Central Asia, Europe, and North America during the wheat growth phase (May–June). In the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina/Paraguay show increased risk during September–October, while Australia faces strong negative anomalies during August–September.

CropWatch Forward‑Looking Assessment

CropWatch’s internal ENSO exposure modeling indicates elevated risk for:

• Maize in Southern Africa, Central America, Northeast Brazil, India,      China, Central Asia, Europe, and North America.

• Rice in South Asia, Southeast Asia,      China, Central Asia, and Europe.

• Wheat in Australia, Southern Africa, Argentina/Paraguay, and parts      of East Asia and Europe.

Potentially favorable conditions may emerge in Central Asia, southeastern South America, and eastern East Africa, where persistent anomalies could support crop development.

The 2026/27 El Niño is developing under record global and oceanic temperatures, increasing the likelihood of atypical teleconnections and more intense hydrometeorological extremes. These conditions may amplify agricultural vulnerability and introduce uncertainty into traditional ENSO impact patterns.

Figure 1.7. Global ENSO‑related impact patterns for maize, rice, and wheat during the 2026/27 season. Panels (a, c and e) show crop‑cycle impacts, while panels (b, d and f) show reproductive‑phase impacts. Red areas indicate regions where El Niño is associated with negative stress signals—such as heat anomalies, moisture deficits, or reduced evapotranspiration efficiency—while blue areas indicate regions with positive or mitigating effects.