In 2026, the production of the four major global grain and oil crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans—maintained an overall stable and positive trend. Global total output continued to grow steadily, though the pace of increase moderated somewhat. The supply resilience of major producing countries remained generally strong, and the global grain and oil supply landscape stayed broadly stable and loose. Compared with the June forecast, the latest remote sensing monitoring and trend prediction data in August slightly revised global production expectations: maize, wheat, and soybeans maintained an increasing trend, while rice showed only marginal growth. The narrower production increase in this report relative to the June forecast is mainly attributed to the ongoing disruption caused by the super El Niño event, which has triggered frequent extreme weather events in major production regions worldwide. This has put pressure on the growth of some grain-producing areas and led to downward adjustments in yield expectations, representing the key factor behind the smaller-than-expected crop production increment in this round.

In 2026, total global production of major grain and oil crops reached 3.32016 billion tons, an increase of 50.83 million tons compared with 2025, representing a growth rate of 1.5%, as global grain production capacity continued to expand. By crop type, wheat and soybeans led in terms of production increase, maize grew steadily; and rice production declined. Specifically, global maize production reached 1.22148 billion tons, an increase of 25.19 million tons year-on-year, up 2.1%; rice production reached 759.78 million tons, a decrease of 18.92 million tons year-on-year, down 2.3%; wheat production reached 846.70 million tons, an increase of 24.04 million tons year-on-year, up 2.9%; and soybean production reached 456.20 million tons, an increase of 20.06 million tons year-on-year, up 4.6%.

The 20 core major producing countries under focused monitoring in this report (see Chapter 2 for details) remain the central pillars of global grain supply, firmly dominating global major grain and oil production, and representing the key areas for global food security monitoring and early warning. The latest data for August show that monitored production in major producing countries remained generally stable, with some countries seeing slight downward adjustments in forecast yields.

Maize production was generally favorable, with increased output from major producing countries supporting the rise in global production. Among the 48 monitored countries (see Appendix A.1 for the list), the monitored maize production of the 20 major producing countries reached 1.08960 billion tons, up 3.0% from 2025. The stable production situation in core major producing countries has solidified the fundamental base of global maize supply. Among the 48 monitored countries, maize production in countries other than the 20 major producers, obtained through remote sensing monitoring models, totaled 49.54 million tons, down 2.1% year-on-year. Production in countries outside the 48 monitored countries, obtained through trend prediction, was 82.34 million tons, down 6.4% year-on-year, partially offsetting the production increase from major producing countries. The monitored rice production of the 20 major producing countries was 651.88 million tons, down 2.5% year-on-year; monitored production in other countries was 71.82 million tons, down 2.9% year-on-year, mainly affected by the ongoing super El Niño event.

Global wheat showed strong momentum for production increase, with steady and slight growth in the 20 major producing countries and significant increases in other countries. Among the 20 major producing countries, remotely monitored wheat production was 639.13 million tons, down slightly by 0.9% year-on-year; monitored production in other countries was 149.69 million tons, up significantly by 24.1% year-on-year. Non-traditional production regions such as the Middle East and North Africa continued to gain momentum, becoming an important source of incremental global wheat production, driving the overall global wheat increase to 3.3%, making it one of the best-performing crops in terms of production growth among the four major crops. Predicted production in countries outside the 48 monitored countries was 56.44 million tons, up 7.4%.

The production increase trend for soybeans among major producing countries was clear, and global production capacity continued to improve. Global monitored soybean production in major producing countries reached 409.42 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year. Core production regions in South America showed favorable soybean growth and significant production increases, serving as the core driving force behind global soybean production growth. Predicted production in countries outside the 48 monitored countries was 46.78 million tons, up 2.6% year-on-year, jointly pushing total global soybean production up 4.6% year-on-year, as oil and oilseed supply capacity continued to improve.

The global major grain and oil trade pattern remained stable, with overall robust export supply capacity and continuously improving self-sufficiency on the import side. From the export dimension, the top 10 exporting countries maintained steady growth in maize and soybean production, while rice and wheat production saw slight declines. Specifically, maize production was 698.70 million tons (+2.6%), soybean production was 401.28 million tons (+5.1%), rice production was 547.80 million tons (−3.8%), and wheat production was 375.36 million tons (+0.6%). The production increase structure of the top 5 core exporting countries was generally consistent with that of the top 10 exporting countries: maize reached 639.80 million tons (+2.5%), soybeans reached 377.39 million tons (+5.3%), wheat reached 230.11 million tons (+1.6%), all showing steady growth, while rice reached 304.68 million tons, down 5.8% year-on-year. Core exporting countries demonstrated strong supply resilience for oilseeds and grains.

From the import dimension, the self-sufficiency capacity of major global importing countries continued to improve, with production increases achieved for most crops. The top 10 importing countries recorded maize production of 316.56 million tons (+1.1%), rice production of 358.99 million tons (+0.8%), wheat production of 196.48 million tons (+6.8%), and soybean production of 69.18 million tons (+10.7%), with only a few crops maintaining slight fluctuations. The production trends of the top 5 importing countries were similarly positive, with particularly outstanding increases for wheat and soybeans at 4.5% and 10.8%, respectively. Maize grew slightly by 1.3%, while only rice production saw a small decline of 0.8%. The continuous improvement in grain self-sufficiency levels among major importing countries has effectively alleviated pressure on global grain and oil trade supply.

Overall, in 2026, global production and supply of major grain and oil crops were ample, with crop structure continuing to optimize. Wheat and soybeans became the core drivers of production increase, maize grew steadily, while rice performance was relatively weak. Major producing countries maintained stable or increased production, and the supply-demand structure of major trading countries remained stable, continuously strengthening global food security assurance capacity and providing strong support for the stable operation of international grain and oil markets. At the same time, climate uncertainty remains the primary risk. Periodic extreme weather events and regional drought stress may still disrupt later-stage crop growth and yields. Going forward, satellite remote sensing data will continue to be relied upon to dynamically track crop growth in major global production regions and update yield forecasts in a timely manner.

Table 1.1 Remote sensing monitoring and forecasting of major cereals and oil crop production for major exporting and importing countries (production in million tonnes)

Note:Major producing countries include Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, China, Ethiopia, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Ukraine, the United States, and Vietnam. All countries other than the above 20 major producers are collectively referred to as other countries. Monitored data include yield data obtained based on the biomass-harvest index model and remote sensing index model; predicted data are obtained using the trend yield method, updated only once at the beginning of each year.