From May to July 2026, CropWatch conducted focused monitoring of maize planting area, yield, and production in four major maize-producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere: the United States, China, India, and Ukraine. The results indicate that total planted area, average yield, and total production across the four countries all increased slightly year on year. However, national production patterns diverged markedly: Ukraine and China contributed most of the incremental growth, U.S. production was broadly flat, while India faced unfavorable climatic conditions.

Total maize planted area across the four countries is estimated at about 90,873 thousand hectares, up approximately 0.8% year on year. The average yield is about 8,242 kg/ha, a slight increase of 0.3% compared with the same period last year. Total maize production is projected to rise by about 1.20% to 755.22 million tonnes. Ukraine stands out the most: driven by the restoration of export corridors and favorable international grain prices, planted area expanded sharply by 20% to 6.677 million hectares; together with a 3.0% yield increase, total production surged by 23.6% to 53.01 million tonnes, making Ukraine a key source of incremental global maize supply. China’s production is expected to increase modestly by 1.00% to 266.18 million tonnes, with gains mainly coming from expanded planting in Heilongjiang and improved yields in North China. U.S. maize planted area rises slightly by 0.30%, while yield is essentially flat with a small decline of 0.14%; total production is estimated at 405.27 million tonnes, up 0.16% year on year.

Nevertheless, drought in the western United States and the Great Plains continues to threaten water supply during the critical growth stages in July–August. India is the only one of the four countries with a clearly weaker production outlook: affected by 14% below-normal rainfall and high temperatures, the share of cropland planted is down sharply by 26% versus the recent five-year average, and the best Vegetation Condition Index is only 0.68. India’s total maize production is projected at 30.76 million tonnes, and the outlook depends heavily on the persistence of monsoon rainfall.

Looking ahead, the duration and degree of drought relief in the western United States and the Great Plains will be the key uncertainty determining final maize production. Climatic conditions in Northeast China and the main producing areas of North China are generally normal, which is favorable for grain filling and maturation, though localized heat stress should be monitored. In Ukraine, after maize enters the pollination stage in mid-to-late July, extreme heat combined with continued rainfall deficits could quickly revise the currently optimistic yield expectations. In India, priority should be given to monitoring soil moisture recovery in rainfed areas and the lagged impacts of hot, dry conditions on maize yields. Overall, the global maize supply outlook in 2026 appears looser than last year, but regional climate risks and geopolitical/logistics factors still warrant continuous tracking.

Table 1.2 Yield Forecast of Major North Hemisphere maize-Producing Countries (August 2026)