Among the world’s major soybean-producing countries, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina are typically the top three. Considering crop phenology, this report focuses on monitoring the 2026 soybean production outlook in three Northern Hemisphere countries: the United States, China, and India. Overall, the combined soybean production of these three countries is about 168.30 million tonnes, up roughly 0.2% from 2025. Regional divergence in climatic conditions and adjustments in planting structure jointly drive the production changes: China continues to increase output through optimized regional deployment and improved agronomic management; U.S. production edges up slightly, though drought risk persists in the west; and India faces a weaker production outlook due to insufficient rainfall.

China’s total soybean production is projected to reach 19.67 million tonnes, an increase of 0.408 million tonnes (2.1%) compared with 2025. The traditional competitive producing areas in the Northeast show a small structural decline, with production falling in both Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, multiple regions—including the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and Southwest China—are contributing to growth. Henan and Hubei are expected to increase by 7.6% and 7.4%, respectively, while provinces such as Anhui and Shaanxi also post steady gains. National soybean production is becoming more diversified and balanced, and the yield gains from the soybean–maize strip intercropping system continue to be evident.

In the United States, soybean planted area is estimated at 35,190 thousand hectares, down 1.2% year on year. However, yield is expected to rise 1.7% to 3,872.47 kg/ha, bringing total production to an estimated 136.27 million tonnes, a slight increase of 0.5% from the previous year. During the monitoring period, national precipitation was 8.12% below normal, while heat and sunshine conditions were generally suitable; crop growth has been broadly stable. The share of cropland planted is in line with the five-year average, the best Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) reaches 0.884, and the overall production outlook is slightly favorable. Nevertheless, drought in the western and Great Plains regions may adversely affect water supply during the critical growth stages in July–August. Close attention should be paid to subsequent rainfall, which will be the main variable determining final annual production.

India’s soybean planted area is about 11,705 thousand hectares, with yield around 1,056 kg/ha and total production projected at 12.36 million tonnes. During the monitoring period, nationwide precipitation was 14% below the long-term average and temperatures were 0.5°C higher than normal, indicating pronounced moisture stress. The share of cropland planted is 26% lower than the recent five-year average, the best VCI is 0.68, and the production outlook is weak. Although current yield remains at a reasonable level—possibly due to the buffering effect of irrigated agriculture—low rainfall and high temperatures have already negatively affected sowing progress and early crop growth. Final production prospects depend heavily on the persistence and spatial evenness of subsequent monsoon rainfall. Going forward, attention should focus on soil moisture recovery in rainfed areas and the security of irrigation water supplies.

Overall, soybean production across the three countries shows a differentiated pattern of “steady growth in China, a slight increase in the United States, and pressure in India,” with subsequent weather evolution remaining the key factor influencing final output.

Table 1.2 Yield Forecast of Major North Hemisphere Soybean-Producing Countries (August 2026)