Multiple global climate centers, including the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), forecast that a super El Niño is developing in 2026. Combined with short-term weather forecasts for late August 2026 and long-term weather forecasts for September–October 2026, high temperatures are expected to persist in global rainfed agricultural regions over the coming months, while precipitation is projected to increase and drought conditions are likely to ease (Fig. 1.11/Fig. 1.12).

Compared with the May–July 2026 period, regions such as North and Central China, south-central Europe, and the central and western United States face heightened risks of intensifying drought, whereas drought conditions in the Indochina Peninsula, most of Africa, Brazil, southeastern Australia, and parts of the United States may be alleviated.

Key areas requiring continued attention include:

1. Precipitation variability in water-limited regions, particularly major Northern Hemisphere agricultural areas that are currently in critical crop growth stages, including much of Africa, south-central Europe, the central and western United States, and central China;

2. Global water resource allocation, especially reservoir storage and irrigation security capacity in major irrigated regions;

3. The heightened risks of heatwaves and aggravated drought–flood disasters associated with ENSO (El Niño), as well as the differentiated impacts of global precipitation and temperature anomalies on major agricultural regions.

Figure 1.11 Monthly variation of PDSI in global rainfed agricultural regions, November 2024 – October 2026

Figure 1.12 Predicted difference in PDSI between August–October 2026 and May–July 2026