During the current monitoring period (May–July 2026), hydrothermal conditions across Canada’s agricultural areas were generally favorable, with markedly above-normal precipitation and near-normal temperatures, providing suitable radiation, temperature, and precipitation conditions for wheat jointing, heading, and grain filling. Nationally, cumulative precipitation was 256 mm, 13% above the 15-year average; the average temperature was 15.9°C, essentially the same as the normal level for the same period (departure of +0.1°C), effectively reversing the delayed growth caused by low spring temperatures. Taking radiation, temperature, and precipitation conditions together, national potential cumulative biomass was 801 gDM/m², slightly higher than the normal level by 1%, indicating generally stable and improving crop growth. Among the main agro-ecological zones, the Prairies recorded precipitation 15% above normal and near-normal temperatures, with a favorable combination of moisture and heat; its maximum vegetation condition index was 0.95 and its crop production index was 1.08, making it a key region underpinning the upward revision of national production. The Atlantic region had precipitation close to normal and overall suitable conditions. The Hudson Bay region recorded precipitation 9% below normal and potential cumulative biomass 6% below normal, with local moisture deficits imposing some constraint on biomass accumulation. The Pacific region recorded precipitation 12% below normal, but no widespread drought stress had yet developed. Nationally, the maximum vegetation condition index was 0.95, indicating excellent crop condition, and the cropped arable land fraction reached 100%, 4 percentage points above the five-year average for the same period, reflecting full completion of spring planting. After verification, Canada’s 2026 wheat yield is expected to increase by 8.81% over the previous year, and the planted area is expected to expand by 4.8%; combining the increases in area and yield, total wheat production is estimated to rise by about 14.0%. The above-normal precipitation, adequate soil moisture, and excellent vegetation condition during the monitoring period provided the main agro-climatic basis for the upward revision of wheat yield and the expansion of planted area.

By crop, the corn planted area decreased by 3.4% from the previous year, and total corn production was 9.20 million tonnes, down 7.0% from 9.89 million tonnes the year before; the larger decline in production than in area indicates a simultaneous decline in yield. The soybean planted area expanded by 2.1%, and total soybean production was 7.41 million tonnes, up 1.0% from 7.33 million tonnes the previous year; the expansion in area was the main support for production growth, while yield remained generally stable. The planting structure continued the adjustment trend of stabilizing cereals and expanding oilseeds, consistent with market expectations of expanded oilseed planting. Combined with above-normal precipitation and generally adequate soil moisture during May–July, corn and soybean emergence and vegetative growth were generally favorable, with no widespread water stress observed; suitable hydrothermal conditions in major producing areas such as the Prairies provided sound support for early corn and soybean growth.

Figure 2.5  Forecast crop production for Canada in 2026