Utilizing multi-source remote sensing data from ESA's Sentinel-1/2 satellites and US Landsat 8/9 satellites, together with national 10-meter resolution cropland data, and relying on massive ground-measured samples collected through the GVG agricultural information collection application, random forest and transfer learning-based artificial intelligence methods were employed to monitor the 2026 national summer grain and wheat planting areas. Combined with the latest agrometeorological information and crop yield remote sensing monitoring models, the 2026 summer grain and wheat yields were reviewed. The results are as follows.

(1) Maize Production Forecast

In 2026, national maize production remained generally stable, with slight increases achieved in area, yield per unit area, and total output. The national maize planting area was 41,266 thousand hectares, up 0.3% year-on-year; the average yield was 6,450 kg/ha, up 0.7% year-on-year; and total output reached 266.18 million tons, an increase of 2.73 million tons, up 1.0%.

From the summary of key major producing provinces, production showed a synchronized growth trend in both area and yield per unit area. The combined maize planting area of 18 major producing provinces was 38,147 thousand hectares, up 0.2% year-on-year; the average yield was 6,605 kg/ha, slightly up 0.1% year-on-year; and total production was 251.97 million tons, an increase of 0.87 million tons, up 0.3%, with the increase mainly driven by planting area and yield improvement.

Production differentiation in Northeast China was relatively pronounced. Heilongjiang's planting area increased by 5.0%. Although yield per unit area declined by 3.0%, total output still reached 53.50 million tons, an increase of 0.98 million tons, maintaining its position as the largest maize-producing province. Jilin was affected by a 7.4% decrease in planting area, with output reduced by 2.75 million tons, representing the largest production decline among the above provinces. Both area and yield per unit area in Liaoning declined slightly, with output reduced by 0.20 million tons. Inner Mongolia also saw a slight decrease in output, with area and yield per unit area declining by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, and output reduced by 0.33 million tons.

The North China and Huang-Huai-Hai regions performed well overall, with yield improvement becoming the primary driver of production increase. Henan's area increased by 1.9% year-over-year, however, affected by persistent heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon “White Dolphin”, three major dike-breach emergencies occurred in Henan Province on August 12–13, 2026. The breach sites were located, respectively, at the Yuxi Village section of Changqiao Town, Jia County, Pingdingshan City along the Beiru River; the Cangtoucun section of Yanling County, Xuchang City along the Qingyi River; and the eastern bank section beneath the Xin Beihuan Bridge in Chuanhui District, Zhoukou City along the Jialu River. Based on the latest data, the maize yield forecast has been revised downward from the earlier projection, yet it still registers a year‑on‑year increase of 3.3%. Henan's maize production is expected to rise by 0.85 million tonnes, up 5.2% compared with last year. Subsequent reports will dynamically update and cross‑verify the maize production estimates. Although Hebei and Shandong saw planting area declines of 2.7% and 3.1%, respectively, output still grew by 2.0% and 1.1%, respectively, thanks to yield improvements. Shanxi's area expanded by 3.2%, coupled with a substantial yield increase of 11.8%, resulting in an output increase of 1.44 million tons, a growth rate of 15.4%.

Production differences among provinces in the Southwest and Central China regions were prominent. Yunnan's planting area increased substantially by 12.0%, driving an output increase of 0.80 million tons, up 13.7%. Sichuan's planting area increased by 4.5%, but affected by a sharp yield decline of 15.4%, output was reduced by 0.73 million tons. Chongqing, Anhui, and Jiangsu all experienced varying degrees of production decline. Hubei's area and yield per unit area improved slightly, with output increasing slightly by 0.06 million tons.

Overall, the yield improvement in North China, the dual increases in area and yield in Shanxi and Yunnan, and the expanded planting in Heilongjiang contributed significantly to production increases, largely offsetting production declines in regions such as Jilin and Sichuan.

In addition, it is reported that owing to the persistent heavy rainfall brought by  Typhoon “White Dolphin”, three major dike-breach emergencies occurred in Henan Province on August 12–13, 2026. The breach sites were located, respectively, at the Yuxi Village section of Changqiao Town, Jia County, Pingdingshan City along the Beiru River; the Cangtoucun section of Yanling County, Xuchang City along the Qingyi River; and the eastern bank section beneath the Xin Beihuan Bridge in Chuanhui District, Zhoukou City along the Jialu River. Since the remote-sensing data used for the monitoring period of this bulletin have a cutoff date of August 12, the impacts of these dike-breach incidents on crop growth and yield in Henan Province will be re-evaluated in the next bulletin.

Figure 2.6 Spatial Distribution of maize in Northeast and North China, 2026

Table 2.1 2026 China Maize Production Forecast

(2) Semi-late Rice Production Forecast

In 2026, national semi-late rice production declined overall. The planting area was 21,248 thousand hectares, down 1.6% year-on-year; the yield per unit area was 6,544 kg/ha, down 0.6% year-on-year; and total output was 132.10 million tons, a decrease of 3.02 million tons, down 2.2%. Both area reduction and yield weakening jointly dragged down total output. Multiple typhoons during the year affected the eastern coastal areas and local areas along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The typhoons brought strong winds and heavy rain, causing lodging in some rice fields and obstructing the grain-filling process. However, the impact of the typhoons was limited in scope, and no large-scale disasters occurred in the main production areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Overall, light, temperature, and water conditions were well matched, and many provinces still achieved bumper harvests, becoming the main production increase sectors.

Anhui and Jiangsu provinces, located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River production region, contributed most significantly to the production increase. Anhui's planting area was 1,988 thousand hectares, up 2.4% year-on-year, coupled with a substantial yield increase of 9.4%, resulting in a total output of 14.39 million tons, an increase of 1.54 million tons, up 12.0%. Jiangsu's area expanded by 7.9%, with yield improving slightly by 1.9%, and total output reached 16.59 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons, up 10.0%. Hunan and Hubei saw steady expansion in sowing scale, with yields remaining stable and rising, and output increased by 0.32 million tons and 0.23 million tons, respectively. Zhejiang saw synchronized improvement in both area and yield, with output increasing by 0.46 million tons. Jiangxi's planting area was slightly reduced by 0.8%, but relying on yield improvement to offset the area loss, output still increased by 0.09 million tons.

Semi-late rice production in Northeast China showed mixed results. Heilongjiang's area increased by 2.6%, offsetting the impact of a slight yield decline, with total output reaching 24.55 million tons, an increase of 0.46 million tons, continuing to be the largest semi-late rice production region in the country. Jilin's sowing area increased by 4.4%, with yield remaining flat, and output increased by 0.25 million tons. Liaoning was affected by multiple factors including periodic low temperatures and peripheral wind and rain from typhoons, with both area and yield declining synchronously, and output was reduced by 0.23 million tons, making it the only province in Northeast China with reduced output.

Southwest, Northwest, and Huang-Huai regions saw both increases and decreases. Sichuan's sowing area increased by 2.0%, with yield basically stable, and output increased by 0.27 million tons. Guizhou and Yunnan saw slight yield improvements, with output increasing by 0.08 million tons and 0.07 million tons, respectively. Chongqing was affected by persistent cloudy and rainy weather with insufficient sunlight, with yield declining and output reduced by 0.09 million tons. Ningxia saw synchronized improvement in both area and yield, with output increasing by 0.11 million tons. Shaanxi's expanded planting scale drove an output increase of 0.07 million tons. Henan had suitable light and heat conditions, with dual growth in area and yield, and output increased by 0.28 million tons.

Overall, bumper harvests in the main production areas along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River such as Anhui and Jiangsu, as well as production increases in some provinces in Northeast China, were insufficient to offset various factors contributing to production decline, including local disaster losses caused by multiple typhoons, national sowing area reduction, and yield pressure in some production regions. Consequently, national total semi-late rice output declined year-on-year.

Table 2.2 2026 China Semi-late rice Production Forecast

(3) Soybean Production Forecast

In 2026, China's total soybean output is expected to reach 19.67 million tons, an increase of 0.408 million tons compared with 2025, up 2.1%. National soybean production continues the steady increasing trend. The regional production pattern has shifted: the traditional Northeast advantage production region has experienced a slight structural decline in output, while the Huang-Huai-Hai, middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and Southwest production regions have made multi-point efforts to become the main production increase sectors, further diversifying and balancing the national soybean production layout.

Production in the core Northeast China production region was under pressure, with an overall slight decline in output, as the production growth rate shifted from increase to stability with local adjustments. Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, as the core soybean production regions in China, saw synchronized declines in output, representing the main characteristic of output changes in traditional major production regions. Inner Mongolia showed the most pronounced decline, with total output in 2026 expected to be 2.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.074 million tons from 2025, down 2.6%. Heilongjiang, the largest soybean-producing province in the country, saw a slight output adjustment, with 2026 output expected to be 8.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.030 million tons from 2025, down 0.4%, basically maintaining a high-level stable trend and continuing to safeguard the fundamental base of national soybean supply. Jilin maintained steady growth, with 2026 output expected to be 0.67 million tons, an increase of 0.007 million tons from 2025, up 1.0%. Overall, the four Northeast provinces and regions saw a slight decline in output.

The Huang-Huai-Hai and middle reaches of the Yangtze River production regions showed prominent increasing trends. In 2026, Henan's soybean output is expected to be 0.62 million tons, an increase of 0.044 million tons from 2025, up 7.6%, representing the province with the highest growth rate among key provinces nationwide. Hubei followed closely, with 2026 output expected to be 0.42 million tons, an increase of 0.029 million tons from 2025, up 7.4%. Other provinces also achieved steady growth: Anhui's 2026 output is expected to be 1.03 million tons, an increase of 0.036 million tons, up 3.6%. Shaanxi, relying on optimized planting structure, saw output increase to 0.30 million tons, up 6.5%. Shandong and Jiangsu maintained stable and slight growth, both up 1.6%. The summer soybean production capacity in the Huang-Huai-Hai region continues to be released, and the yield increase effect of the soybean-maize strip intercropping model continues to be demonstrated.

Production in the Southwest region was generally stable, with relatively limited room for production increase. As the largest soybean-producing province in Southwest China, Sichuan maintained a stable production trend, with 2026 output expected to be 1.12 million tons, an increase of 0.019 million tons from 2025, up 1.7%. Guizhou's 2026 soybean output is expected to be 0.31 million tons, up 1.0% year-on-year, with a stable regional production pattern.

Table 2.3 2026 China Soybean Production Forecast

(4) Summer Grain and Wheat Yield Review

In 2026, total national summer grain output is expected to be 148.99 million tons, an increase of 1.63 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 1.1%, basically consistent with the June forecast. Summer grain output in 10 major producing provinces reached 135.33 million tons, an increase of 2.06 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 1.5%; output in other provinces declined year-on-year. The national summer grain planting area declined by 1.0% year-on-year, but yield increased by 2.1%. The yield improvement effectively offset the impact of the area decline, supporting stable and increased total output.

In 2026, the national wheat planting area was 23,766 thousand hectares, down 1.0% year-on-year from 2025; the average yield reached 5,927 kg/ha, up 2.1% year-on-year. Yield improvement offset the impact of area reduction, and national total output achieved a small increase, reaching 140.86 million tons, up 1.1% year-on-year (Table 2.1, Figure 2.9), slightly lower than the previous forecast. The 11 major wheat-producing provinces, including Henan and Shandong, remain the ballast stone of domestic wheat supply, with a combined sowing area of 20,893 thousand hectares, accounting for 87.9% of the national total wheat sowing area, but wheat planting area declined by 1.0% compared with 2025.

From the perspective of output formation in each major producing province, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan were the main sources of production increase. Shandong's wheat yield increased by 3.3%, reaching 7,996 kg/ha, with total output of 28.61 million tons, an increase of 2.35 million tons (+5.0%), continuing the recent bumper harvest trend. Hebei Province saw synchronized improvement in both wheat planting area and yield, with total output increasing by 0.57 million tons (+7.2%), ranking first among all major producing provinces in both scale and rate of increase. Although Henan's planting area declined somewhat, the proportion of late-sown and weak seedlings before winter was relatively high. Field management measures to promote weak seedlings to strong ones were implemented across the province, and crop conditions improved significantly. Yield improved by 5.3% year-on-year, offsetting the impact of area decline, and total output increased by 0.48 million tons (+1.2%). Total output in Sichuan, Hubei, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu increased by 8.9%, 5.8%, 6.1%, 2.2%, and 1.9%, respectively. Winter wheat output in Anhui, Jiangsu, and Xinjiang declined. Anhui saw area and yield declines of 7.0% and 2.2%, respectively, with total output reduced by 1.15 million tons, a decline of 9.1%, making it the province with the largest decline. Jiangsu's yield increased by 1.3%, but this was insufficient to offset the impact of area decline, and total output decreased by 0.5% year-on-year. Xinjiang's output was reduced by 0.19 million tons, a total decrease of 3.1%.

In 2026, wheat production overcame adverse effects including large-area late sowing and weak seedlings caused by continuous autumn rain during sowing, and lodging caused by multiple rounds of strong winds and rain during the harvest period, achieving a small increase in total output despite reduced sowing area, mainly thanks to the improvement of agricultural resilience through increased investment in agricultural science and technology.

Figure 2.7 Spatial distribution of wheat in the North China and Huang-Huai-Hai wheat regions, 2026

Table 2.4 2026 Winter Wheat Major Producing Provinces: Planting Area, Yield, and Output

(5) Early Rice Yield Review

In 2026, the actual early rice planting area in eight southern provinces of China was 5,149 thousand hectares, an increase of 50 thousand hectares year-on-year, up 1%; the average yield was 5,606 kg/ha, up 2% year-on-year. Area expansion combined with yield improvement drove total output to 28.87 million tons, an increase of 0.84 million tons year-on-year, up 3.0%, achieving synchronized growth in area, yield, and total output (Table 2.2). The actual results were significantly better than the previous (June) forecast. The forecast predicted a year-on-year area decrease of 2.3%, while the actual result was a 1.0% increase, representing a turnaround from decrease to increase. The actual yield increase (2.0%) was also slightly higher than the forecast (1.6%). Total output reversed from the previous expected decrease of 0.23 million tons (−0.8%) to an actual increase of 0.84 million tons (+3.0%), and the overall production situation improved significantly.

Anhui and Fujian were the provinces with particularly prominent early rice production increases. Anhui's early rice planting area was 199 thousand hectares, up 6% year-on-year. Light and temperature conditions during the grain-filling period were well matched, and yield reached 6,261 kg/ha, up 9% year-on-year, with total output of 1.25 million tons, an increase of 0.17 million tons year-on-year, up 16.0%, driven by substantial increases in both area and yield. Fujian's planting area was 174 thousand hectares, up 7% year-on-year, with yield of 5,333 kg/ha remaining flat year-on-year, and total output of 0.93 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons year-on-year, up 7.2%, with planting area expansion being the dominant factor in the production increase.

The early rice production situation in Hunan and Guangxi was generally stable. As the largest early rice-producing province, Hunan's planting area was 1,512 thousand hectares, remaining flat year-on-year. Light, temperature, and water conditions during key growth periods were well matched, crop conditions transformed favorably, yield was 5,804 kg/ha, up 1% year-on-year, and total output was 8.77 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons year-on-year, up 0.5%. Guangxi's planting area was 931 thousand hectares, remaining flat year-on-year. Meteorological conditions during the flowering and grain-filling stages were suitable, rice pollination and grain-setting proceeded normally, yield was 5,524 kg/ha, up 1% year-on-year, and total output was 5.14 million tons, an increase of 0.02 million tons year-on-year, up 0.4%, achieving stable and increased output overall.

Early rice in Jiangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hubei all achieved production increases. Jiangxi's planting area was 1,175 thousand hectares, up 2% year-on-year, yield was 5,643 kg/ha, up 4% year-on-year, and total output was 6.63 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons year-on-year, up 5.3%; local high temperatures and short-duration heavy precipitation during the grain-filling period somewhat constrained further yield improvement. Guangdong's planting area was 909 thousand hectares, up 2% year-on-year, yield was 5,217 kg/ha, up 1% year-on-year, and total output was 4.74 million tons, an increase of 0.13 million tons year-on-year, up 2.7%. Zhejiang's planting area was 109 thousand hectares, down 1% year-on-year, but with sufficient light and heat conditions during the later grain-filling stage, yield was 5,717 kg/ha, up 6% year-on-year, and total output was 0.62 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons year-on-year, up 5.9%, relying on yield improvement to offset the slight area decline. Hubei's planting area was 141 thousand hectares, up 1% year-on-year, yield was 5,321 kg/ha, remaining flat year-on-year, and total output was 0.75 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons year-on-year, up 1.6%.

In 2026, early rice production in southern China saw disturbances from cloudy and rainy weather during the seedling stage and early flowering stage in some regions, but during subsequent key stages such as grain-filling, light and heat conditions in most production regions were generally suitable, effectively repairing deficiencies in early growth conditions. Local governments strengthened field management, implemented measures such as drainage and waterlogging reduction, and pest and disease prevention and control, reducing the adverse impacts of meteorological disasters. Combined with favorable factors such as stable and increased early rice planting area, national early rice output increased year-on-year.

Table 2.5  2026 Early Rice Major Producing Provinces: Planting Area, Yield, and Output Forecast

(6) Drought Risk Prediction for Autumn Grain Crops in China

From the statistical results of agricultural drought risk in national ecological agricultural regions, the overall water stress risk for farmland crops in China is at a relatively low level, but regional differences are prominent. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Hainan, South China, and Taiwan have relatively high agricultural drought risk levels, with drought risk years all approaching or exceeding 1.9 years, among which the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the highest agricultural drought risk nationwide. The Gansu-Xinjiang region and the lower Yangtze River region rank second. Inner Mongolia, the Huang-Huai-Hai region, and the Loess Plateau have relatively low drought risk levels, with relatively smaller water stress pressure.

From the TCI (Temperature Condition Index) values of each ecological agricultural zone in China—lower TCI values indicate higher farmland temperatures and more severe high-temperature stress. From late April to early August 2026, TCI across all national regions showed obvious phase fluctuation characteristics. At the end of May, a large-scale TCI drop occurred, with Hainan, Taiwan, and South China showing the most prominent declines, indicating rapid temperature rise in farmland during this period and significantly intensified high-temperature stress. In early June, TCI in most regions rebounded rapidly, and high-temperature pressure was briefly relieved. From June to July, regional differentiation gradually became apparent: TCI in Inner Mongolia, the Loess Plateau, and Northeast China remained high for a long time, with relatively suitable farmland temperature conditions; while TCI on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau continued to decline, and high-temperature stress continued to intensify. Entering July-August, TCI in Gansu-Xinjiang, Huang-Huai-Hai, lower Yangtze River, South China, and Southwest fluctuated in the 40–55% range, with intermittent high-temperature disturbances; TCI in Hainan and Taiwan gradually rose later, and high-temperature stress eased somewhat.

Figure 2.8 Average cropland crop moisture stress risk in secondary agroecological zones (AEZ) of China, May–July 2026

Figure 2.9 NOAA VHP temperature condition index (TCI) changes at 8-day intervals in secondary agroecological zones (AEZ) of China, May–July 2026