During the monitoring period, India entered the sowing and early to mid-growth stages of rice, maize, and soybean in the Kharif season, or rainy season.

CropWatch remote-sensing monitoring indicated that the planting area of Kharif-season rice was approximately 43.528 million hectares, down 1.43% year on year. Average yield was approximately 4,432 kg/ha, down 8.30%, and total production was approximately 192.91 million tonnes, down 9.60%. The planting area of maize was approximately 8.903 million hectares, down 2.8%, with an average yield of approximately 3,455 kg/ha, down 2.6%, and total production of approximately 30.76 million tonnes, down 5.3%. The planting area of soybean was approximately 11.705 million hectares, down 2.8%, with an average yield of approximately 1,056 kg/ha, down 2.6%, and total production of approximately 12.36 million tonnes, down 5.3%.

Figure 2.15 Distribution of major Kharif-season crops in India, 2026

Figure 2.16 Spatial distribution of yields of major Kharif-season crops in India, 2026

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators showed that the RAIN reached 417 mm during the monitoring period, 14% below the 15-year average. The TEMP was 30.3°C, 0.5°C above normal. The RADPAR was 831 MJ/m², 2% above average, while the BIOMASS was 885 g DM/m², 11% below average. The combination of reduced RAIN and elevated TEMP caused relatively pronounced water stress. Although the RADPAR increased slightly, this increase was insufficient to offset the adverse effects of insufficient rainfall on crop growth and biomass accumulation.

The agronomic indicators showed that the CALF was 46%, 26% below the average for the same period over the past five years. The VCIx was 0.68, and the CroPI was 0.61. The ADAC was −92.3%, the PDSI was −2.49, and the CWSI was 1.83. These results indicate that some agricultural regions in India faced substantial water limitations during the monitoring period, while planting progress and early crop growth were weaker than in recent years. Although national-scale agronomic indicators were weak, current crop yields remained within a reasonable range. This may be related to the buffering effect of irrigated agriculture against rainfall deficits and the contribution of high-yielding regions. Therefore, a nationwide production decline should not be inferred solely from national-scale indicators.

Overall, during May–July 2026, India's Kharif agricultural production faced unfavorable conditions, including reduced RAIN, above-normal TEMP, and declining BIOMASS. Planting progress and early crop growth were weaker than in recent years. Current yield estimates for rice, maize, and soybean remained within reasonable ranges, but final production prospects depend strongly on the persistence and spatial uniformity of subsequent monsoon rainfall. Further monitoring should focus on soil-moisture recovery in rainfed areas, water-supply in irrigated areas, and the lagged effects of hot and dry conditions on yield formation in maize and soybean.