From May to July 2026, due to variations in island climates, irrigation infrastructure, and multiple cropping systems, rice production across Indonesia did not follow a uniform phenological stage. Some wet-season rice regions were undergoing maturation and harvesting, post-harvest fallowing, or land preparation for the subsequent season. Conversely, in multiple-cropping regions with adequate irrigation, such as Java, Bali, and South Sulawesi, the second dry-season rice crop was predominantly in the sowing, transplanting, greening, tillering, and jointing stages, while certain early-sown fields advanced to the booting and heading stages.

During the monitoring period, Indonesia recorded a cumulative precipitation of 378 mm, representing a 25% decrease compared to the 15-year average for the same period. While irrigated rice regions could partially mitigate this moisture deficit, close attention to soil moisture levels and irrigation supply remains critical for rainfed rice areas and fields currently in the sowing, transplanting, greening, and tillering stages. The average temperature was 26.5°C, which is 0.4°C higher than the long-term average. The overall thermal conditions were optimal, facilitating the greening, tillering, and vegetative growth of the rice crops. However, Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) reached 735 MJ/m², a 3% decline from the average, while the potential cumulative biomass stood at 982 gDM/m², down by 16% compared to the long-term average. This indicates that insufficient solar radiation has somewhat restricted dry matter accumulation, which may subsequently impede booting, grain filling, and overall yield formation.

Agronomic indicators reveal that the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) decreased by 8% compared to the five-year average for this period. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.90, and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.97. These metrics suggest that the overall condition of the planted rice is comparable to recent years, and the favorable field vegetation conditions provide a solid foundation for maintaining and slightly improving crop yields.

In summary, while optimal temperatures and stable crop growth conditions are conducive to sustaining rice yields, the combination of below-average precipitation, reduced solar radiation, and lower potential cumulative biomass remains a constraint on late-stage yield formation. CropWatch monitoring results indicate that during the monitoring period, the planted rice area in Indonesia was 1.42 million hectares, a decrease of 9.84% compared to the same period in 2025. The yield was 3,945 kg/ha, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.69%, while total production stood at 5.60 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 5.61%. Although the improvement in yield partially mitigated the impact of the reduced planting area, it was insufficient to entirely offset the production losses. Consequently, the contraction in cultivated area remains the primary driver behind the year-on-year decline in total rice production.

Figure 2.17 Distribution of Dry-Season Rice in Indonesia, 2026