This report focuses on characterizing the 2026 first-season rainy-season maize production and crop growth conditions in northern Nigeria, with emphasis on the main maize-growing areas in the north. The rainy season began in early May, and maize sowing took place from late May to early June.

CropWatch monitoring indicates that, from June to August 2026, the planted area of first-season maize in northern Nigeria was about 3.30 million hectares, a 29% decrease relative to the multi-year average. This contraction is consistent with agroclimatic and land-surface monitoring signals. CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that rainfall (RAIN) during May–July totaled only 157.7 mm, 43.93% below the 15-year average; mean temperature (TEMP) was 29.52°C, with an anomaly of +0.90°C; and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) was 891.5 MJ/m², slightly higher by 3.49%. The pronounced rainfall deficit combined with above-normal temperatures increased evaporative demand, intensifying moisture stress in rainfed farming systems and potentially delaying emergence. The cropland planted fraction (CALF) was 61.6%, down by 9.26 percentage points compared with the recent five-year average, consistent with delayed sowing, risk-driven reductions in planted area, and/or replanting needs following localized early crop failure.

At the national scale, NDVI anomalies show a late and uneven recovery pattern: near normal to slightly above normal in May, a decline in June associated with localized episodic drought, and strong divergence in July—some areas rebounded to strong positive anomalies while others remained slightly negative. This spatial heterogeneity reflects Nigeria’s rainfall gradient and the recovery of rainfall in late July, which supported compensatory regreening mainly in fields with better hydrological conditions or later planting. The national maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) reached 0.85, indicating that although overall conditions were suppressed early in the season, peak vegetation conditions in some areas still approached historically high levels.

Nigeria’s national Crop Production Situation Index (CroPI) is 0.939, suggesting that current production potential is slightly below average, mainly constrained by rainfall deficits and reduced planted area rather than widespread poor crop health. In the northern producing zone, maize yield is estimated at 2,300 kg/ha, with total production at 7.59 million tonnes. Overall, unfavorable early-season climate conditions translated into delayed sowing, reduced planted area, and spatially uneven crop performance. Risk remains concentrated in the northern and central transition belt of this rainfed agricultural region, where moisture constraints are most pronounced.

Figure 2.19: AREA OF MAIZE DISTRIBUTION IN NORTEHRN NIGERIA

Figure 2.20: MAIZE YIELD IN NORTHERN NIGERIA