From May to July 2026, Pakistan was in the sowing-to-seedling stage of Kharif-season maize and rice. The country exhibited a typical drought pattern during this monitoring period. CropWatch agro-climatic indicators showed that accumulated precipitation was 43% below the 15-year average, mean temperature was 0.4°C above average, photosynthetically active radiation was essentially unchanged from normal (+1%), and potential accumulated biomass was 20% below average, indicating generally unfavorable agro-climatic conditions. Drought severity decreased from southwest to northeast: precipitation was 85% below average in Balochistan, 67% below in the Lower Indus, 35% below in Northern Punjab, and only 11% below in the Northern highlands; the corresponding potential accumulated biomass departures were −20%, −23%, −20%, and −5%, respectively.

CropWatch agro-climatic indicators showed that drought exerted marked stress on sowing and crop condition. Nationwide, the cropped arable land fraction fell 17 percentage points below the recent 5-year average. In the main production zone of Northern Punjab, it dropped 19 percentage points, with vegetation condition at the lowest level nationally. In the Lower Indus, the cropped arable land fraction declined 20 percentage points, with the most pronounced water stress. Balochistan recorded a 26-percentage-point decrease, while the Northern highlands showed the smallest decline, at 6 percentage points, with relatively stable crop condition.

Regarding production forecasts, main-season maize yield was projected to decline 5.14% year-on-year. Rice yield declined 1.69%, and the planted area decreased 1.4%; with area and yield falling simultaneously, total rice production was under evident pressure, dropping 1.5%. The winter wheat review confirmed a production decline: area was 2.63% below the previous year, average yield was 5.13% lower, and the total production index fell 7.63%, consistent with the earlier assessment of drought-induced losses in rainfed areas.

In summary, the persistent precipitation deficit before the onset of the monsoon affected both area and yield of Kharif-season maize and rice in Pakistan, with pronounced pressure in main production zones such as Northern Punjab. The previous winter wheat season also confirmed a production decline, and grain production faced significant drought stress, with total production trending downward year-on-year.

Figure 2.21 Distribution map of maize planting in Pakistan in 2026