May–July 2026 coincides with the concentrated period of winter wheat grain filling, maturity, and harvest in Russia — the closing, decisive stage of yield formation. As the growing season progresses, the discernibility of remotely sensed vegetation index signals improves substantially relative to earlier growth stages; monitoring this period achieved, for the first time, complete coverage of the full 2025/26 winter wheat growing season (October 2025–July 2026), enabling post-season verification. Winter wheat area was retrieved independently with a winter-wheat-index method based on a dual-NDVI-minimum phenological criterion, and jointly analyzed grid-on-grid with a light use efficiency (LUE)-driven yield map; compared with the mid-season estimate of the June issue, the results this period are more complete and accurate.

This period combines national agroclimatic and agronomic indicators with subregional soil moisture assessment to finalize the post-season national winter wheat production estimate, focusing on the winter wheat situation in the Caucasus. The winter wheat phenological index and yield distribution maps for the Caucasus show that, following autumn-sowing drought, the North Caucasus received ample mid-to-late season moisture compensation, with planted area and condition both better than last year; South Caucasus planted area contracted under local autumn-sowing conditions and cropping-structure adjustment, yet yields after grain-filling stress relief remained above last year — an overall pattern of northward expansion, southward contraction, and widespread yield gains. Synthesizing the Caucasus remote-sensing results, the national agroclimatic pattern, and historical production information, this issue estimates Russia's 2026 winter wheat production at about 99.54 million tonnes, up 5.7% year-on-year; planted area of 30.11 million ha, essentially flat; and an average yield of 3306 kg/ha, up 6.1% — production growth driven mainly by yield gains with area overall stable.

Table 2.6  Winter wheat monitoring and risk assessment dashboard for the major producing regions of Russia (May–July 2026)

Figure 2.22  Spatial distribution of the winter wheat phenological index in the Caucasus, Russia (full 2025/26 season window)

Figure 2.23  Spatial distribution of winter wheat yield in the Caucasus, Russia (kg/ha)

Figure 2.24  Soil moisture anomaly map for the Caucasus, Russia (May–July 2026)

In agroclimatic terms, Russia this period (May–July 2026) showed an overall pattern of above-average precipitation, near-average to slightly cool temperatures, and slightly reduced radiation. National cumulative rainfall was 192 mm, 17% above the 15-year average; mean temperature was 18.8°C, 0.1°C below average; and PAR was 877 MJ/m², 3% below average, mainly owing to increased cloud cover associated with more frequent precipitation. Ample moisture left potential biomass 6% above average, and the radiation–temperature–precipitation configuration was overall favorable for grain filling and maturation of summer-harvested crops. CALF reached 98%, 2% above the 5-year average, and VCIx was 0.91 — a recent-year high — with crop condition generally good. The Caucasus soil moisture anomaly map (Figure 2.24) shows subregional moisture generally near average: mild negative anomalies (yellow) occur mainly in parts of the northern Caucasus interior, locally reaching −0.05 to −0.02 — lagged traces of the autumn-sowing moisture deficit, but limited in extent; positive anomalies (green to deep green) cover most of the South Caucasus and the Black Sea coast at roughly 0.02 to 0.06, indicating that above-average grain-filling-season rainfall has left surface soils clearly wetter. No significant deficit pixels exist region-wide (those below −0.05 account for less than 0.1%), and neither waterlogging nor drought disturbed the harvest period.

As seen from Figures 2.22–2.24, the higher yield-potential zones of the North Caucasus overlap only marginally with its locally mild soil-moisture negative anomalies; the sustained rainfall recovery since spring alleviated the autumn-sowing drought, and soil moisture swung from negative to positive through the greening–jointing–grain-filling stages, laying the basis for restorative yield growth; that planted scale rose rather than fell in an autumn-drought year also indicates retention and resowing fractions above expectations — true sowing dynamics better than previously classified estimates. The South Caucasus had a sound autumn-sowing foundation and ample surface soil moisture; the mid-season cold–wet–low-sunshine stress had essentially eased by grain filling, with full-season radiation and temperature near normal, and yields above last year; its contracted planted area is the main factor in the subregional production decline, related to local autumn-sowing conditions and cropping-structure adjustment. By subregion: the Central Black Earth (Chernozem) region enjoyed the best agroclimatic conditions, with potential biomass of 516.6 g DM/m² — the national maximum — and CALF held at a high 91.6%, with summer crops robust; the warm-moist configuration of the Middle Volga region supported ample biomass accumulation with improving spring-sowing and summer-harvest prospects; and in the Urals and Trans-Volga belt, melting overwinter snow effectively replenished soil moisture reserves, and the spring wheat growing season saw above-average rainfall with normal heat — the summer-harvest outlook overall favorable.

Taken together, these findings show that the Caucasus moisture evolution — northern moisture compensation and southern stress relief — corroborates the production pattern of northward expansion, southward contraction, and widespread yield gains, while the coordinated water–heat regime of the Central Black Earth and Middle Volga regions is the main stabilizer of national output.

In addition, sowing in the Volga–Urals and Siberian spring wheat belts was not monitored separately, and reports from several other institutions indicate that spring-sown area there has been revised downward; the final national total for all wheat requires integrated assessment. Looking ahead to the next monitoring period (October), Russia will shift to monitoring of the new 2026/27 winter wheat sowing; this year's ample summer rainfall has also laid a good basis of soil moisture reserves for the coming autumn sowing — the resilience of the Russian wheat production system to autumn-sowing drought has been demonstrated once again.