From May to July 2026, South Africa's major crops entered a seasonal transition period. Summer crops—maize and soybean—were predominantly at the late grain‑filling to maturity and harvest stages. While overall water demand declined from its peak, soil moisture remained critical during the early‑to‑mid grain‑filling phase; after maturity, drier conditions favoured dehydration and mechanical harvesting. Meanwhile, winter wheat in the south‑western winter‑rainfall zone was at the critical stages of sowing, emergence and tiller establishment, with a relatively high demand for antecedent soil moisture and periodic rainfall replenishment. During this period, cumulative precipitation was 35% above the fifteen years average, temperatures remained near normal, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 6% below average, and potential biomass was 15% above average—indicating generally favourable agro‑climatic conditions. The PDSI suggested an overall wetter‑than‑normal status, while VCIx (0.9) and CroPI (1.5) also reflected positive vegetation and production conditions. Overall, the moisture regime was broadly beneficial for wheat seedling establishment and tillering, as well as for the late‑stage grain filling of maize and soybean. However, the combination of wetter conditions and slightly reduced radiation may elevate the risk of wheat diseases, and could also pose challenges for maize and soybean harvesting operations and grain quality.

Maize is South Africa's largest and most important staple food crop. According to CropWatch's revised estimates, the country's maize planting area for 2026 is expected to reach 4.149 million hectares, a slight increase of 0.3% compared with the previous round and an expansion of 3.3% relative to 2025. The projected yield is 5,574 kg/ha, down by 1.8% from the previous round yet up 5.3% year on year. Driven by simultaneous growth in both area and yield, total maize production is forecast to rise to 23.13 million tonnes, showing a 1.5% decrease versus the previous round and an 8.8% year-on-year increase.

Figure 2.25  2026 Maize Production Forecast for South Africa