From May to July 2026, Ukraine’s agricultural zones showed a typical phenological overlap and transition between winter wheat and maize: winter wheat was in vigorous growth in May, reached peak greenness in June, and entered senescence and harvest in July; maize moved from sowing/emergence in May to rapid vegetative growth in June, maintaining a high level of canopy development in July. National CropWatch monitoring indicates generally favorable crop conditions, with VCIx as high as 0.909, suggesting that the best intra-season canopy status was close to the historical optimum. The Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.1258—above the long-term baseline—confirming that overall production conditions during this period were better than recent benchmarks. Weather drivers were neutral to slightly favorable: precipitation totaled 156.5 mm, 9.94% below the 15-year average, but no severe drought occurred during the key water-demand period in May–June. Mean temperature was 19.30°C, 0.66°C below normal; cooler conditions reduced evapotranspiration demand, benefiting an extended wheat grain-filling period and helping retain soil moisture during maize vegetative growth. Photosynthetically active radiation reached 883.37 MJ/m², only 2.38% below average and not a major constraint. A brief heat episode in early July in the Black Sea region (above 35°C) mainly affected shallow-soil areas, but wheat was largely already in the mature/harvest stage, and maize had not yet entered its pollination-sensitive phase, so overall damage was manageable.

Wheat production shows a dual-increase pattern of “sharp area expansion and steadily improving yield.” Planted area expanded from 6.220 million ha in 2025 to 7.200 million ha (+15.76%). Yield rose from 4,186 kg/ha to 4,311.58 kg/ha (+3.00%). Total production jumped by 19.26% to 31.043 million tons. Area expansion was the main driver of output growth: using last year’s yield as a benchmark, the added area alone would contribute about 4.10 million tons. Yield gains likely benefited from a longer grain-filling period under cool conditions and near-normal radiation.

Maize expansion was even more pronounced. Planted area increased from 5.564 million ha to 6.677 million ha (+20%). Yield improved from 7,708 kg/ha to 7,939 kg/ha (+3%). Total production rose sharply by 24% to 53.01 million tons. The larger expansion in maize area compared with wheat reflects a strong rebound in farmers’ willingness to plant maize amid recovering export routes and relatively favorable international grain prices. Remote-sensing trajectories suggest that the natural decline in national NDVI in July was mainly driven by wheat harvest, but rapid maize canopy expansion effectively compensated for wheat greenness loss, keeping vegetation indices overall robust.

Combining the two crops, Ukraine’s total grain output in 2026 is projected to exceed 84 million tons (about 31.04 million tons of wheat plus 53.01 million tons of maize), more than 21% higher than the roughly 68.92 million tons in 2025—providing important support to global grain supply. In terms of export prospects, wheat exportable surplus is expected to reach 18–22 million tons, and maize exports are projected at 22–27 million tons, depending on Black Sea port logistics efficiency and infrastructure security. Key risks to watch include: persistent rainfall during harvest that could affect wheat quality; tight fertilizer supplies, which have limited impact on winter wheat already nearing maturity but could constrain next season’s production potential; and, once maize enters pollination in mid-to-late July, the possibility that extreme heat combined with continued rainfall deficits could quickly revise the currently optimistic yield outlook downward. Overall, Ukraine’s 2026 crop production presents a positive pattern of “double-digit area expansion, moderate yield improvement, strong remote-sensing signals, and neutral-to-slightly favorable weather conditions.”

Figure 2.27 Spatial distribution map of winter wheat yield in Ukraine, 2026

Figure 2.28 Spatial distribution of Ukrainian corn yield, 2026