In this monitoring period (May to July 2026), U.S. agricultural production was generally at a critical stage in which spring-sown crops transitioned from sowing and emergence to vegetative growth, flowering, and pod or ear formation. CropWatch monitoring indicated that crop conditions nationwide were generally stable, although regional differences in moisture conditions and crop phenology were pronounced.

During the monitoring period, cumulative precipitation nationwide was 249 mm, 8% below the 15-year average. The mean temperature was 21.6°C, 0.3°C above average, while photosynthetically active radiation totaled 983 MJ/m², 1.08% below average. Overall, heat and solar radiation conditions were broadly favorable, whereas precipitation was slightly below average. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 92.7%, only 0.02% below the recent five-year average. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.88, and the Crop Production Index (CroPI) was 1.03. These indicators show that, during the monitoring period, the sown area in the major agricultural regions remained generally stable, crop conditions stabilized, and the overall production outlook was slightly favorable.

In May, maize and soybean were mainly in the sowing, emergence, and seedling establishment stages. They entered rapid vegetative growth and canopy closure in June. In July, maize progressively entered tasseling, silking, and pollination, while soybean entered flowering and early pod formation; NDVI typically increased rapidly during this period and approached its seasonal maximum. In the Lower Mississippi region (AEZ 7) and the Southeast (AEZ 9), rice gradually transitioned from early post-sowing or post-transplanting growth to vigorous tillering and vegetative growth. By contrast, winter wheat in the Southern Plains (AEZ 11) matured and began to be harvested in May and June, and the decline in NDVI primarily reflected harvesting. Spring wheat in the Northern Plains (AEZ 10) and the Northwest (AEZ 3) remained mainly in the vegetative growth, stem elongation, and heading stages during May and June, and entered grain filling and early maturity in July. Large-scale harvesting in these regions generally occurs after August. The slightly below-average NDVI observed there in July may indicate drought-induced growth suppression and premature senescence.

Regionally, cumulative precipitation in the Corn Belt (AEZ 5) was 286 mm, 9.3% below average; nevertheless, potential cumulative biomass reached 959.0 g DM/m², confirming the region's central role in supporting the national maize and soybean production outlook. The Bluegrass region (AEZ 2) received 413 mm of precipitation, 22.1% above average, and recorded potential cumulative biomass of 1,202 g DM/m², the highest among all regions. The Lower Mississippi region received 358 mm of precipitation, 11.8% above average, with potential cumulative biomass of 1,133 g DM/m². The Southeast received 384 mm of precipitation, 4.3% above average, with potential cumulative biomass of 1,135 g DM/m². These conditions were favorable for maintaining good growth of maize, soybean, rice, and forage crops. In contrast, precipitation in the Southwest (AEZ 1), Northwest, and California (AEZ 4) was only 45.0, 40.2, and 13.6 mm, respectively—31.6%, 34.8%, and 17.1% below average. Potential cumulative biomass in these three regions was only 501, 442, and 434 g DM/m², respectively. Agricultural production in these areas therefore depended more heavily on irrigation, and rainfed wheat, maize, soybean, and other non-irrigated crops faced a relatively high risk of water stress. Precipitation was also 13.2% below average in the Northeast (AEZ 6) and 15.1% below average in the Northern Plains; soil moisture conditions during the remainder of the season warrant close attention.

CropWatch estimates that the U.S. maize planted area in 2026 will be 34,779.03 thousand hectares (kha), an increase of 0.30%, while maize yield will be 11,653 kg/ha, a decrease of 0.14%. Based on these changes in area and yield, total U.S. maize production in 2026 is projected at 405 million tonnes, essentially unchanged from 2025 and up slightly by 0.16%. The soybean planted area is projected at 35,190 kha, down 1.18% year on year; soybean yield is projected at 3,872 kg/ha, up 1.67%; and total soybean production is projected at 136 million tonnes, up 0.46%. Drought persists in the West and the Great Plains. Maize and soybean will enter critical yield-formation stages in August, making water availability a key factor requiring close attention and a major source of uncertainty in final annual production. CropWatch will continue to closely monitor subsequent developments.

Table 2.7. CropWatch Estimates of U.S. Maize and Soybean Production in 2026 (May–July 2026)