From May to July 2026, meteorological conditions across Thailand’s agricultural zones were broadly neutral to slightly favorable: total precipitation was essentially in line with the 15-year average (+0.42%), mean air temperature was close to normal (+0.06°C), and photosynthetically active radiation was slightly below normal (−1.89%). This pattern is consistent with the typical progression of the monsoon from its early stage toward peak intensity. The cropping share of arable land reached 83.25%, which is 3.13 percentage points higher than the average of the past five years, indicating strong land-use intensity.

Under these conditions, national rice production exhibited a pattern of “area contraction, yield surge, and slight output increase.” Rice planted area decreased by 7.70% from 2025 to 1,746.1 thousand hectares, but yield rose sharply by 11.00% to 4,431.9 kg/ha, resulting in a 2.5% increase in total production to 7.506 million tons.

During May–July, Thailand is in an overlapping period that includes a rice harvest/land-preparation window and the canopy expansion phase for maize. The NDVI time series shows a trajectory of “slightly negative in early May → divergence in June → a positive anomaly jump in July → a decline toward the end of the period.” The July NDVI rebound (+0.11 to +0.13) is mainly attributable to crop canopy expansion, monsoon-driven regreening in mixed cropping systems, and re-wetting in parts of the rice-growing areas. A VCIx of 0.742 supports strong crop performance during certain periods; however, the post-harvest decline in rice greenness means that rising moisture signals do not necessarily translate into a proportional increase in NDVI.

The differentiated yield components suggest that Thailand’s rice production is shifting from an “area expansion” model toward a “yield improvement” model. The reduction in planted area may be linked to incentives for switching to cash crops, weakened competitiveness of rice prices, and a conservative strategy in response to anticipated El Niño–related drought. The yield surge, by contrast, likely benefited from monsoon water supply, the dissemination of hybrid rice technologies, and economies of scale from more consolidated farming. Although current monitoring indicators are generally favorable, attention is needed for the risk that lagged El Niño drought could threaten the transplanting of the late (second) rice crop, and that part of the 11% yield increase may reflect a rebound effect. If no extreme weather occurs later in the season, Thailand’s total rice output in 2026 is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but its export share will still face price competition from India and Vietnam.

Figure 2.26. Spatial distribution of Thailand's 2026 second-season rice production