In May–July 2026, rice production across the equatorial and adjacent rice-growing regions showed an overall pattern in which the delayed monsoon amplified water stress while irrigation-backed resilience continued to dominate. The tropical Crop Production Index (CroPI-5) was slightly below the baseline overall (about 0.96), with the spatial distribution continuing the patchy mosaic character of the previous period; most of South Asia–the Indochinese Peninsula and West Africa–the Gulf of Guinea formed two pronounced below-average belts (Figure 1.10).

Figure 1.10  Spatial distribution of the Crop Production Index (CroPI-5) across the equatorial and adjacent rice-growing regions, May–July 2026

From the macro agroclimatic perspective, the strong El Niño event warned of in the previous monitoring period has materialized and is continuing to intensify: in early August, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC) confirmed that an El Niño Advisory is in effect, with an 81% probability of developing into a very strong event during October–December, and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) multi-model predictions indicate peak intensity around November. Against this background, the southwest monsoon advanced markedly late this period, leaving India's CALF 26% below the 5-year average and the rainy season late across West Africa–the Gulf of Guinea; the belated monsoon rainfall caused moisture deficits in rainfed rice zones to surface in concentrated form during this monitoring period, and irrigation capacity has once again become the decisive factor differentiating rice production outcomes.

The South Asian rice zones are in the sowing and early growth of Bangladesh's Aman rice, the growth and yield formation of Aus rice, and the sowing and early-to-mid growth of India's Kharif rice, showing an overall pattern of steady starts in the deltas and delayed-monsoon stress in the interior. Rice production in the Ganges–Brahmaputra alluvial plain and delta zones proceeded largely smoothly: Bangladesh's Aman-season planted area was 5961 thousand ha with an average yield of 3902 kg/ha, and the Aus season 1008 thousand ha at 3396 kg/ha, with the combined production of the two seasons forecast at about 26.68 million tonnes. Rainfall during the period was only 3% below average and thermal conditions stable; potential biomass was on par with average, CALF was 72% (+2%), and CroPI-5 stood at 0.84 — water stress overall controllable, with the sustainability of monsoon rainfall for early Aman growth to be watched. India, by contrast, was under more pronounced late-monsoon stress: national rainfall was 14% below average, temperature 0.5°C above average, and potential biomass down 11%, with CALF at only 46% (−26%), reflecting clearly delayed Kharif-season summer sowing; VCIx of 0.68 and CroPI-5 as low as 0.61 — the lowest in this section and among major producing countries globally — with PDSI of −2.49 together with ADAC of −92.3% jointly indicating strong moisture limitation. Kharif rice planted area currently stands at 43,528 thousand ha with an average yield of 4432 kg/ha and forecast production of 184.20 million tonnes — still within a reasonable range, owing mainly to irrigation buffering the rainfall shortfall; however, the recovery of soil moisture in rainfed areas and the persistence of subsequent monsoon rainfall will determine the final yield ceiling.

The Southeast Asian rice zones are at the intersection of the critical early transplanting–tillering stage of the main (wet-season) crop and the harvest–land-preparation window of the second-season crop. This period, Thailand's agrometeorological conditions were overall neutral to favorable: rainfall essentially on par with the 15-year average (578 mm, +0.42%), temperature near average (+0.06°C), and PAR slightly below average — consistent with the typical progression of the monsoon from onset toward peak; CALF of 83% (+3%) indicates good cropland use intensity. Second-season (dry-season) rice planted area contracted 7.70% to 1746 thousand ha, yield rose sharply by 11.00% to 4299 kg/ha, and production grew 2.5% to 7.51 million tonnes. The diverging production components reflect a rice sector shifting from area expansion to yield improvement. The area contraction may stem from subsidies for conversion to cash crops, weakening competitiveness of rice export prices, and conservative planting under anticipated El Niño drought, while the yield leap benefited from monsoon moisture replenishment, hybrid rice extension, and consolidated farming operations — though part of the 11.00% yield gain likely carries a restorative component. Internal moisture differentiation within Thailand remains pronounced: the irrigated lowlands of the central double- and triple-crop rice zones maintained relatively good condition thanks to irrigation (CroPI-5 0.80); the southeastern coastal zone showed outstanding planting enthusiasm (CALF 94%, +18%; CroPI-5 0.97); and the single-crop rainfed Northeast was under the deepest stress (CroPI-5 0.76, VCIx 0.68), compounded by PDSI of −4.62 and ADAC of −97.1% indicating a persistent soil-moisture-depleting deficit. The Northeast is the core vulnerable belt of moisture deficit, and the water guarantee for later second-season rice transplanting under drought warrants close attention. The jump in July NDVI positive departures (+0.11 to +0.13) mainly resulted from the growth of upland crops such as maize and the regreening of monsoon-driven mixed cropping systems, rather than an across-the-board improvement in rice condition.

Vietnamese rice is at a stage of season handover and parallel growth: in the southern main producing areas such as the Mekong Delta, winter–spring rice is mostly at maturity–harvest or post-harvest land preparation, summer–autumn rice is successively entering sowing, transplanting, and greening tillering–jointing, with early-planted fields at booting to heading; in the Red River Delta of the north and parts of the central coast, spring rice is at grain filling–maturity–harvest and summer rice at sowing/transplanting and vegetative growth. Agroclimatic conditions during the period featured suitable heat and slightly weak rainfall and sunshine: cumulative rainfall was 600 mm, 9% below average; mean temperature 0.3°C above average; potential biomass down 3%; CALF of 88% (+5%) indicates active seasonal planting; VCIx of 0.83 and CroPI-5 of 0.90 indicate planted crops close to but slightly below normal; and PDSI of −2.98 together with ADAC of −90.0% reflect still pronounced soil moisture deficits in some rice zones, with irrigation support and subsequent rainfall supplementation needed for summer–autumn rice tillering–booting. Monitoring results show Vietnam's rice planted area at 1791 thousand ha, down 1.65% year-on-year; average yield 3821 kg/ha, up 6.07%; and production 6.84 million tonnes, up 4.33%. The marked yield gain fully offset the area decline, making yield improvement the main driver of Vietnam's year-on-year production growth.

The equatorial island rice zones showed an overall pattern of irrigation resilience underpinning yields while area contraction weighed on output. Indonesian rice production is in a season-transition and regional phenological differentiation period: in irrigated rice zones such as Java, Bali, and South Sulawesi, the dry-season second crop is mainly at sowing, transplanting, and greening tillering, with some early-planted fields at booting–heading, while some rainfed zones are at maturity–harvest or inter-season land preparation. Monitoring shows a planted area of 1420 thousand ha, down 9.84% year-on-year, mainly under the influence of season transition, multiple-cropping arrangements, and regional sowing-date differences; average yield 3945 kg/ha, up 4.69%; and production 5.60 million tonnes, down 5.61% year-on-year, with area contraction the main driver of the decline. Agroclimatically, cumulative rainfall was 25% below average and potential biomass down 16%, directly constraining dry-matter accumulation; temperature was 0.4°C above average and PAR near average, slightly above (+3%). Cropland use intensity was generally maintained (CALF 92%, +8%); VCIx of 0.90 and CroPI-5 of 0.97 indicate planted-rice condition close to recent-year averages; and ADAC of −34.7% with PDSI of +1.9 — the lightest water stress among the major rice-producing countries — confirm the buffering role of the irrigation system. Spatially, the Java irrigated core was steady to favorable (CroPI-5 1.04), though its 54% rainfall deficit still pressures rainfed fields within it; Kalimantan–Sulawesi was near normal (CroPI-5 0.99); Sumatra slightly weak (CroPI-5 0.89); and West Papua, with rainfall down 70% and potential biomass plunging 45%, is the zone's local extreme-deficit area.

Rice in the African equatorial rice zones is comparatively scattered, concentrated in the Gulf of Guinea coastal lowlands, inland valleys, lakeside wetlands, and parts of the East African plateau–lake agricultural belts; this period coincides with the critical window of main-rainy-season onset and rice growth, showing an overall picture of a late rainy season, deep stress, and a tightening situation. The Guinean savanna zone recorded rainfall 44% below average; the Sudanian and Sahelian savanna belts 54% and 64% below average, respectively; CALF in the lowland rainforest belt fell 28% with VCIx down to 0.52; and vegetation condition in the coastal mangrove–swamp forest belt was also clearly poor. If the main rainy season still fails to arrive effectively in August, the risks of delayed rice transplanting and uneven emergence will rise further. The scattered rice areas of the East African plateau–lake zone are likewise under pressure: main-rainy-season rainfall in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania was 26%–48% below average, with CroPI-5 mostly 0.84–1.07, and moisture stress directly suppressing the synchronized growth of rice and highland cereals. Nigeria, the region's largest rice producer, recorded only 158 mm of rainfall during the period (44% below average), temperature 0.9°C above average, and potential biomass down 22%, with the main rainy season clearly late; CALF was 62% (−9%) and VCIx 0.85, and CroPI-5 at 0.94 remains near the baseline, but ADAC fell to −99.6% and PDSI to −3.30, making the water supply–demand contradiction extremely acute.

Overall, the rice production situation in the equatorial regions this period (May–July) extends the basic pattern of the previous monitoring period and deepens with the late monsoon onset and the intensifying El Niño. Irrigation infrastructure remains the primary driver of regional differentiation: the well-irrigated Ganges Delta, Java lowlands, and Mekong Delta sustained stable or even rising yields through supplemental water (Thailand +11.00%, Vietnam +6.07%, Indonesia +4.69%), serving as the key force hedging area contraction and supporting overall output; meanwhile, soil moisture deficits continued to deepen in the rainfed rice areas of Northeast Thailand, interior India, and the West African Gulf of Guinea belt, which constitute this period's principal production-loss risk belts.

Table 1.4  Rice production in selected countries of the equatorial rice-growing regions (May–July 2026)

Note: † Bangladesh: Aman-season monitoring; no monitoring baseline of the same caliber exists for 2025. ‡ India: Kharif-season monitoring. § Thailand: second-season (dry-season) rice monitoring caliber.

In the next monitoring period, Bangladesh's Aman rice will enter the vigorous tillering–jointing phase, India's Kharif rice the critical yield-formation period, mainland Southeast Asia's main-season rice the full tillering–jointing-to-booting span, and Indonesia's dry-season rice successive booting–grain filling, while West Africa's main rainy season enters the decisive yield-formation window. As the strong El Niño will most likely continue to intensify and peak around year-end, priority attention should be given to: reservoir storage and soil moisture recovery across basins during the southwest monsoon peak, the pace of compensatory sowing for India's Kharif season, the drought in Northeast Thailand and the water guarantee for later second-season transplanting, the evolution of drought in the West African rainfed rice zones, and the potential impact of compound extreme heat–drought stress on rice panicle differentiation and grain filling. Rice production forecasts for selected major producing countries in the region are presented in Table 1.4.