Bulletin

wall bulletin
Exective Summary

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: xingqiang

Introduction

The period from October 2016 to January 2017 is a relatively quiet period from an agricultural point of view. In the temperate northern hemisphere summer crops have been harvested, while winter crops have been planted and are now mostly dormant. In some tropical and equatorial countries, including the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil, planting of the second maize and rice generally starts around January, while in the southern hemisphere summer crops are at advanced development stages and nearing flowering, for example maize and soybean in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.

Southern hemisphere production

Winter wheat harvesting was completed in the southern hemisphere, and the current CropWatch Bulletin provides a production estimate for the main producers: 11.245 million tons in Argentina, an increase of 5% over last year; 32.066 million tons in Australia (up by a spectacular 24.2%) and 7.747 million tons of winter wheat in Brazil (+10.0%). In Australia and Argentina, the output of the major production areas grew less than the areas that normally contribute little to exportable surpluses. For maize, the traditional producers and exporters in the southern hemisphere will be covered in detail in the May bulletin. The current situation for the crop, however, is promising in Brazil, the main producer in the south, but less favorable in Argentina where excess water has affected summer crops. South Africa, the third largest maize producer in the hemisphere with about 15 million tons in 2014 is currently doing well, after a rather poor performance in 2015 due to drought; CALF, the CropWatch cropped arable land fraction indicator, which assesses to what extent cropland is actually cultivated, increased by 7 percentage points. Although Australia is a minor producer of maize, CALF rose 40 percentage points over the average of the previous five years, the highest variation among all countries monitored by CropWatch. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), however, one of the crop performance indicators, is low for the country due to drought, which is likely to results in an altogether average output.

Global environmental conditions

Globally, CropWatch analyses identify several large areas of continental scale where conditions varied in a coherent fashion since last October. They are numbered from W01 to W05 (wet) and D01 to D10 (dry), to which the already mentioned Australia belongs. Their location is illustrated in figure 3.1.

Wet areas

The first area, W01 or northwestern America, includes major production zones of Canada and the United States (CALF, +10 percentage points) where temperature exceeded seasonal values and where prospects of winter crops are favorable. Next, in northern and central-south America (W02), some areas recorded excess rainfall, as was already mentioned for parts of Argentina. Contrary to W01, W03 (northern-central Europe) was not only wet but also cold, and crop prospects are about average. The area includes Poland (VCIx=0.88) and Ukraine, two countries where snow was unusually abundant in January. In Ukraine, VCIx was just fair (0.67) and CALF dropped by 12 percentage points compared with the recent seasons. The next area, W04, is very large and extends from the western Caspian and northwest India to eastern Asia (Qinghai province of China). It recorded about double of average precipitation, and the CropWatch biomass production potential (BIOMSS) increased accordingly. Some central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan increased CALF by 20 percentage points. The last wet area, W05, encompasses most of continental and maritime Southeast Asia; it had some very large rainfall increases (Cambodia, RAIN, +120%), some of which were brought about by cyclones (see also section 5.2 on disasters for details). Altogether, CALF in this area was relatively stable (extremes are -4% in Cambodia and 0% in Thailand), but VCIx was high, at least 0.87 (Cambodia, Indonesia), reaching 0.94 in Thailand. Production prospects are generally above average. 

Dry areas

In America, the first identified dry area (D01) extends from the northeastern United States to the Caribbean and Honduras. The average rainfall deficit here reached 21%, with temperature (TEMP) above average by 1°C. In Mexico, which is part of the area, CALF is up 8% with VCIx=0.88, and crop prospects are favorable. In the second dry area, D02 or the western Cono Sul, an area that includes some important pastoral areas, the drop in the biomass production potential indicator (BIOMSS) reached 28% due to drought and low temperature.

The next area, D03, coincides approximately with the Western European Major Production Zone (MPZ) for which chapter 2 provides a detailed analysis. Low rainfall (-30% on average) combined with below average temperature (-1.8°C) affected mostly France where VCIx is 0.73. In other areas, considering the still early stage of the season, prospects remain average or just below. 

In D04, the Eastern Mediterranean, the average rainfall deficit was 39%. Turkey, the major agricultural country in the area experienced a marked drop in CALF (-20 percentage points) with one of the lowest VCIx values (0.55), exceeded only by Iran (0.44). Iran, which is not part of the area, is mentioned here because it recorded the largest growth in CALF (+117 percentage points) of all the countries monitored by CropWatch. In Egypt, the most populated country in the area and a major global food importer, prospects of winter crops are below average.

Next, in Eastern Africa (D05), BIOMSS dropped 39% due to drought; in several countries 2016 was the  second consecutive drought year. In Ethiopia, however, in spite of RAIN being down 26%, CALF is up 6 percentage points with a VCIx of 0.90.

D06 to D09 occur in the eastern European continent and Asia. The first covers western Russia, where RAIN was down by 21% and TEMP by -2.0°C. Considering that CALF in this area is up 16 percentage points, crop prospects remain favorable. D07, southern Siberia to Japan, is of minor global agricultural relevance. The D08 area, which includes several Chinese provinces (Yunnan to Jiangxi) and where rainfall was 28% below average, will be mentioned again below. D09 (most of southern and eastern India) is one of the most problematic areas of the current reporting period. The deficit of rainfall reaches 46%, and this occurs after the damage caused by floods in previous months (and reported in previous CropWatch bulletins). At the same time, however, the northwestern and northern-central areas, which are mostly irrigated, benefited from above average rainfall. Altogether, considering that CALF did not change significantly, crop prospects remain fair.

Finally, D10 includes Australia, which was mentioned above, and New Zealand, where rainfall fell 52% nationwide during the reporting period. 

China

China enjoyed crop conditions not unlike those of the previous season: TEMP was 0.7°C above average and RAIN was up 12%, combined with a drop in solar radiation (RADPAR, -12%). 

Generally, the Northeast and Inner Mongolia regions do not have any crops in the field at this time of reporting because temperature is climatically too low for winter crops. Hibernating winter wheat occurs in all other regions, so that current water supply (as rain or snow) will eventually benefit crops after the winter dormancy phase, especially in the Loess region (CALF down 5 percentage points) and Southwest China, two regions where production prospects are favorable. The regions that will need close monitoring include Huanghuaihai (CALF, down 6 percentage points), Lower Yangtze (CALF dropped 8 percentage points, and indicators undergo a lot of spatial variability), as well as Southwest China where adverse conditions could develop in Chongqing, Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, and especially Sichuan. In Southern China, crop condition in central Guangdong deserves close monitoring as well, due to its below average condition during the whole period, with VCIx below 0.5. 

At the national level, CALF was stable, and the overall expectations for the forthcoming winter wheat remain fair.

The bulletin also includes a section on domestic prices; they include a likely increase for rice and a projected decrease for maize and wheat. For soybeans, wide fluctuations are conjectured.