Over the monitoring period, the harvest of summer crops was completed, and winter crops were in their early vegetative stages under generally favorable weather conditions in most parts of the MPZ. The region experienced below normal thermal conditions, with a 1.7°C drop in temperature compared to average, while rainfall increased 9% and radiation dropped 6%.

According to the rainfall profiles, favorable rainfall affected the MPZ’s western part (almost 39.2% of the MPZ) during October and November, especially in Romania (RAIN, +11%), Poland (+31%), and western Ukraine. The maximum precipitation occurred in January when it was 60% above average in Romania and southern Ukraine. Unfavorable rainfall was recorded in southern Russia (from the kray of Krasnodar to the Kabardino Balkariya republic), with the largest deficit occurring in the kray of Krasnodar, which experienced relative deficits of rain exceeding 20% in January. 

Much of the rain fell as snow, which started early (October), covering much of the MPZ (with fluctuations) from early December (covering only the Carpathian basin in Romania) and then the whole MPZ uninterruptedly from early January to the end of the reporting period. 

Almost all areas of Central Europe to Western Russia enjoyed a below average temperature from October to December, which had negative effects on the development of winter crops. The coldest area included the oblasts of Kirovskaya and Nizhegorodskaya, along with Tatarstan republic, with two low periods in November and December.

Due to the low temperatures during the monitoring period, the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) for the MPZ as a whole decreased by 10% compared to average. This results from BIOMSS drops in northern Ukraine (-7%), Belarus (-9%), and adjacent areas in Russia where this drop reaches 10% or even 20% and more. The maximum VCI (0.79) is lower compared with other MPZs. According to the maximum VCI map of this monitoring period, most pixels were below 0.5 in the central part of Ukraine and the oblasts of Krasnodar and Chelyabinsk, resulting from poor crop condition. Uncropped arable land occurs mostly in Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is also characterized by clusters of unfavorable VHIn and low VCIx. CALF, however, increased by 29 percentage points over the reference period. 

In general, mixed conditions are estimated to prevail in this MPZ; the output of current winter crops will depend on the agrometeorological conditions in the next key vegetative stage.

(a) Rainfall culster

Temperature departure cluster

Cropped arable land

VHI minimum

Maximum VCI