Table 3.1 presents the agroclimatic and agronomic indicatorsfor October 2016-January 2017, showing their departure from the five andfifteen-year averages as applicable; the underlying CWAI indicators arepresented in figures 3.2-3.5. Many of the global rainfall patterns thatcharacterize the current reporting period (October 2016 to November 2017, or “ONDJ”)were already present in the previous CropWatch bulletin that covered theJuly-October 2016 (JASO) period. In some cases, the patterns are remarkablysimilar and can be summarized, as done in the section below, with descriptions basedessentially on rainfall. This part of the report presents an overview of areaswith extreme weather events, followed by brief descriptions of five areas(W01-W05) with wet conditions and ten areas (D01-D10) with dry conditions, asshown in figure 3.1.

Extreme weather

At the global scale, the largest rainfall deficits (RAINmore than 60% below average) occurred in five areas located in (i) India(Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Puducherry, Sikkim and the westerncoastal agro-ecological region), (ii) the Brazilian nordeste (Sergipe, Alagoasand Pernambuco), (iii) the east of Africa (Somalia), (iv) Yemen, and (v) anagro-ecological region of France known as the “mixed maize, barley and rapeseedzone,” which approximately coincides with the regions of Poitou-Charentes,Centre, and Pays de Loire. Although this is not maize and rapeseed season, thedeficit is likely to affect winter wheat and barley, as well as rain-fed summercrops if abundant rain does not set in during the next reporting period. Someof the listed extremes (the mentioned areas in India, Africa, and France) arepart of larger coherent areas defined below as D09, D05, and D03, respectively.

Most areas with very high rainfall excesses (RAIN departureslarger than +120%) occur in the areas identified below as W04 and W05. The onlyexception is the province of Santa Cruz in southern Argentina where 33 mmrepresent almost a triplication (RAIN, +197%) of the expected rainfall. Sincethe area is semi-arid, however, this rainfall can have a significant effect onbiomass production (BIOMSS, +258%). The second largest rainfall departurebelongs to other areas that normally expect little rainfall during winter:Gujarat (RAIN, +473%) and Rajastan (+292%); both part of the W04 western andcentral Asia area, as shown in figure 3.1.

Table 3.1. CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomicindicators for October 2016-January 2017, departurefrom 5YA and 15YA

Figure 3.1. Major wet (shades of green) and dry (shades of yellow and red) areas of global importance

Note: W01-W05 (in blue) indicate wet areas, while areas D01-D10 (in red) are dry. 

All large temperature drops (in excess of 3.0°C) occurred in France (in area D03) and Russia (D06) where negative departures close to -4.0°C were common, in terms of cold spell intensity. This is followed by an area between D06 and D07 where temperature was about 3.5°C below average in the Oblasts of Kurgan, Perm, Sverdlovsk, and Tyumen. The largest positive departures occurred in American Boreal areas of little agricultural relevance.

Lowest relative sunshine (RADPAR departure below -15%) occurred almost all in D08, especially in the southeast (including China’s Jiangsu, -22%; Henan -18%; and Shaanxi, -15%) and northwest in Russia and Kazakhstan with values about -10% to -15%. The highest RADPAR departures (+10% to +13%) do not follow a well-defined spatial pattern and occur in Ethiopia, boreal Canada, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Belize, and Uganda, among others.

The analysis of the combined anomalies highlights cold and dry Western Europe (D03), warm and wet areas in China (part of eastern W04), dry and warm India (parts of D09), as well as wet and cold southwest D09. 

Wet conditions

W01, northern America

Wet conditions occurred over central-western North America, including Ontario and Quebec (RAIN, +24% and +29%, respectively), extending to Kansas (+11%) and California (+45%). In the Canadian Prairies, the average rainfall excess was +30%, while temperature remained negative but nevertheless 1-3°C above average. In the United States, the largest rainfall excesses (about double the average) were recorded around Wyoming, North Dakota, and Montana, with close to average temperature in most places. 

W02, northern half of South America

Dry conditions in the Southern Cone of Latin America during the July-October recently improved in the southeast (southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina) during the current reporting period. Overall, a large area with favorable precipitation now occupies much of the Andean and Amazonian areas of the continent. The precipitation excess reaches 33% on average, with the largest values in some important production areas such as Entre Rios and Santa Fe (both +48%) in Argentina and 53% in Amapa (Brazil). Temperature was slightly below average with average RADPAR and a potential biomass production increase (BIOMSS) at 12%.

W03, northern-central Europe

The area covers 12 CropWatch polygons in eastern and central European countries, from Poland and the Russian Oblast of Tula in the north and Ukraine and Romania in the south. Rainfall exceed the average by 20%, with negative anomalies in temperature (TEMP, -1.3°C) and RADPAR (-9%), resulting in below average biomass production potential (BIOMSS, -9%). The most abundant precipitation fell in Poland (RAIN, +31%), Belarus (+41%), and Ukraine (+33%), with Ukraine also experiencing the largest drop in temperature (-1.7°C). Poland and neighboring Lithuania had the largest sunshine deficit, as expressed by a drop in RADPAR of -14% and -13%, respectively. 

W04, western and central Asia

This area covers a large region in Asia and includes as much as 60 CropWatch polygons in an area centered around Kashmir, the north Kazakhstan region (Severo Kazakhsatanskaya) to eastern Asia (Primorsky Krai in eastern Russia), and Qinghai province of China. In the west, it reaches as far as the Caspian Sea, while its east-west extension is close to 7,000 km. In the eastern part of the area (for example on the Korean peninsula with RAIN departures of +31% to +44% from south to north), rainfall improved compared to the previous reporting period; this improvement, however, did not reach Japan, which remained dry (RAIN, -36%). Overall, the area experienced about the double of the average precipitation (+84%), accompanied by about average temperature (TEMP, -0.4°C) but low solar radiation (RADPAR, -5%). The biomass production potential (BIOMSSS) increased 38% over average. Rainfall increased more than 200% in Haryana and Delhi (+240%) in India, +251% in Qinghai province in China, and as much as +292% and +473% in Rajastan and Gujarat (India), respectively, two areas that are normally relatively dry during this season. More than double the expected amounts occurred in Uzbekistan (+100%), the Chinese provinces of Shaanxi, Jilin, Gansu, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, as well as in Beijing (from about 100% to +180%), Tajikistan (+115%), and Kyrgyzstan (+148%), and the Kyzylorda region in Kazakhstan (+145%). Temperature varied spatially, while RADPAR stayed below the reference values and locally dropped well below (-11% in Shandong and -15% in Shaanxi, both in China).

W05, Southeast Asia

Wet conditions prevailed over most of continental and maritime Southeast Asia and adjacent areas in southern East Asia, although departures from average (RAIN, +49%) were in general lower than those just described for the western and central Asia (W04) area. The largest anomalies were recorded in Vietnam (+74%), Thailand (+82%), and Cambodia (+120%, reaching 784 mm). Similar to the W04 area, however, temperature was average and RADPAR -7% below reference values.

Dry conditions

D01, Southern north and central America

Dry conditions prevailed over the southeastern United States, basically east of Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana and Missouri, extending into the Caribbean (Cuba) and Central America. In the United States, the rainfall deficit was 10-20%, with temperature (TEMP) 1-2°C above average with a shortage of sunshine (RADPAR) and generally average biomass production potentials (BIOMSS). For the region as a whole, the average rainfall deficit reached 21%, with temperature above average (+1°C), RADPAR below (-1%), and BIOMSS down 6%. The largest deficits occurred in Cuba (RAIN, -45%) and Jamaica (-40%), followed by parts of Mexico and Florida (-30%). The deficit was mildest in West Virginia, New Hampshire, and Illinois (about 10%). 

D02, Western Cono Sul

Dry conditions already affected eastern South America during the previous reporting period (July-October), but recently moved towards the west and south, to affect Chile and several areas in Argentina. The average precipitation deficit (RAIN, -35%), combined with cool temperature (-0.6°C) and RADPAR of 4% above reference values, is projected to result in a 28% drop in potential biomass production (BIOMSS).

D03, Western Europe

Dry conditions over western and north-western Europe started during the summer and currently cover sixteen countries, with a rather homogeneous RAIN deficit of 30% on average (from 14% in Switzerland to 48% in Ireland), with consistently below average temperature (TEMP, -1.8°C on average, ranging from -0.1°C in Estonia to -3.5°C in France) with low radiation departures (RADPAR, -2% on average, but -8% in Germany and Sweden; -5% in Austria). The BIOMSS index departure is -2%.

D04, Eastern Mediterranean

Dry conditions prevailed over the southern and eastern Mediterranean during July to October 2016, but improved thereafter in northwest Africa (west of and including Tunisia). Currently, dry conditions affect eight countries, with an average rainfall (RAIN) deficit of 39%: -15% in Turkey, the main agricultural country in the area, to -54% in both Libya and Cyprus, of which only the latter expects agriculturally useful winter rains. Temperature (TEMP) was -0.7°C below average, while radiation (RADPAR) was up 1%. The drop in biomass production potential (BIOMSS) is significant with -28% on average. 

D05, Eastern Africa

Dry conditions prevailed over eastern and southern Africa during the previous reporting period. This situation has now undergone a marked improvement, especially in the south where three countries—currently in their main growing season—report above average rainfall with values of +41% (reaching 418 mm) for Botswana, +31% or 577 mm for Zimbabwe, and +15% or 355 mm for Namibia. Dry conditions continue between Eritrea and Malawi, the East African Highlands, and Madagascar, all in their main agricultural season. The average precipitation deficit is 40%, from -11% in Malawi to -26% in Ethiopia and -76% in Somalia; in Somalia, however, irrigation plays a larger part in food production than in the other countries. Temperature for the area was average and radiation high (RADPAR, +5% over average), with a generally decreased biomass production potential (BIOMSS, -31%). 

D06, western Russia

In this area, which extends from north to south from the Komi republic and the oblast of Arkhangelsk to the Adygeya autonomous oblast and the Black Sea (in Georgia), both rainfall and temperature were below average (RAIN, -21% and TEMP, -2.0°C), but radiation (RADPAR) was average and so was the BIOMSS index (-17%). Both the largest precipitation deficit and the largest negative temperature anomaly occurred in the Komi-Permyak Okrug (RAIN, -34% and -3.5°C). The cold wave, however, was not associated with the precipitation deficit everywhere; it was most intense (-3.0 to -3.4°C) in the oblasts of Kirov and Perm and in the Udmurt republic. On the Black Sea, Georgia recorded a 12% RAIN deficit and a -2.2°C drop in TEMP.

D07, Southern Siberia to Japan

The area encompasses a west-to-east stretch from Siberia to Japan, starting at the Krai of Krasnoyarsk (the largest Krai in the Russian Federation) to the Krai of Khabarovsk in the Russian Far East, bordering the Atlantic Ocean and Japan. The average rainfall deficit in the region is -28%, with a temperature anomaly of -1.2°C, a slightly positive radiation, and a production potential drop (BIOMSS) of 25%. The largest anomaly for RAIN occurred in Ust-Orda Buryatia (-33%), an autonomous Okrug of Irkutsk Oblast, and Japan (-36%). Temperature anomalies vary from average (Japan) to -2.1°C in the Krai of Khabarovsk. RADPAR departures are mostly average and vary between -2% in Japan to +6% in the Amur oblast.

D08, Southern area of China

This rainfall deficit area (RAIN, -28%) includes the provinces of Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Zhejiang, with average winter temperatures varying between 10 and 15°C. During the previous reporting period the same area was mostly wet, and the current relative drought has been developing since October, affecting most severely Guangxi (RAIN, -36%) and Hunan (-32%). On average, temperature in the region was 1.1°C above seasonal values, with a large deficit of solar radiation (RADPAR, -16%), which most typically defines the whole area: with the exception of Yunnan (where RADPAR was average), very large negative RADPAR departures in excess of 11% occur everywhere, reaching -22% in Jiangxi and Zhejiang and as much as -24% in Hunan, which is the absolute record—globally—for the current reporting period. The biomass production potential (BIOMSS) is down -12%.

D09, southern area of Asia 

Dry conditions were confined to south-western India during the previous reporting period. From October, they expanded to enclose the northern center (Madhya Pradesh), the east, and northeast of the country, resulting in an almost generalized drought situation avoiding mostly the northwest. The area also includes Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The average rainfall deficit is as large as -46%, with close to average TEMP and positive RADPAR departure (+4%). Logically, the potential biomass production dropped sharply by 36% compared with average. The most severe deficits occur in Karnataka (RAIN, -74%, resulting in 53 mm of precipitation), Andhra Pradesh (-71% or 67 mm), Goa (-69% or 63 mm), Kerala (-62% or 205 mm), Tamil Nadu (-60% or 216 mm), and Jharkhand (-58% or 48 mm). The lowest deficits are those of Chhattisgarh (-25%) and Bihar (-23%). The positive average RADPAR value results from values between 0% in Meghalaya, +8% for Sri Lanka, and +9% in Tami Nadu. Temperature departures are small, in the range of 0.0°C to -0.4°C, with only one positive departure for the 14 CropWatch polygons, namely +1.5°C in Meghalaya, the wettest region in India, where “drought” is more of a blessing than a disaster. Meghalaya is also the only region with positive BIOMSS expectation, while BIOMSS for other parts drops by as much as 64% in Karnataka and the other states with large precipitation shortfalls.

D10, Oceania

The dry area in Oceania currently involves 6 CropWatch polygons, with an average RAIN deficit of 28%, mostly affecting New-Zealand (a decrease in RAIN of 52% compared to average, to 145 mm) and Tasmania (-50% to 107 mm) and Victoria (-25% to 148 mm) both in Australia. All three areas had slightly negative RADPAR departures in the range of -2%. The below average temperature (TEMP, -0.5°C on average) results from values between -0.3°C (New Zealand) and -0.9°C in Western Australia, where (in the case of Western Australia) RADPAR departure was positive (+2%). Altogether, the BIOMSS potential dropped -22%.

Figure 3.2. Global map of October 2016-January 2017 rainfall (RAIN) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)

Figure 3.3. Global map of October 2016-January 2017 temperature (TEMP) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (degrees)

Figure 3.4. Global map of October 2016-January 2017 PAR (RADPAR) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)

Figure 3.5. Global map of October 2016-January 2017 biomass (BIOMSS) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)