Crop condition was generally below average in Turkey over the reporting period, during which the planting of winter grains was completed. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, -15%) and temperature (TEMP, -1.3°C) were below average, while radiation (RADPAR, +2%) was above. The agroclimatic indices concur to indicate unfavorable conditions for crop growth, which is confirmed by the decrease of the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) by 16%. Compared to the five-year average, the national maximum VCI (VCIx=0.55) was average. The significant decrease in the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF, -20 percentage points) indicates low land utilization for winter crops.

According to the NDVI profiles, crop condition in Turkey was below average during the whole monitoring period. Compared to the recent five-year average, for three regions—the Central Anatolia, Black Sea, and Marmara regions—the NDVI departure value was below 0.2 from December 2016 to January 2017. This could, however, be largely attributed to the rainfall deficit and precipitation of mostly snow in the three regions, with BIOMSS decreases in the three regions of 31%, 15%, and 16%, respectively. The snow, however, will greatly improve soil moisture and benefit crop growth after the winter period. 

Overall, the crop condition of winter crops for this season seems unfavorable due to the continual rainfall deficit from the last monitoring period, but the interpretation of the NDVI-based indicators is difficult due to snow. The final outcome of the season will be largely determined by the change in CALF and soil moisture from March to May.

Figure 3.30. Turkey crop condition, October 2016-January 2017

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                (b) Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and NDVI profiles