5.2. Disaster events

Introduction

According to a recent World Bank study (Hallegatte et al, 2017), economic losses from natural disasters totaled US$92 billion in 2015, mostly in the building, infrastructure and agricultural production sectors. Disaster impact assessments, however, and typically those issued by insurance and reinsurance companies, mostly focus on insured losses, that is, those losses incurred by people rich enough to have assets to lose in the first place; this largely ignores the impact on poor people, which are the majority. Poor people, including most of subsistence farmers, rarely appear in loss statistics as they have little more than their livelihoods and their lives to lose. Indeed, their losses may be smaller than those of wealthy people, but they lose a larger percentage of their belongings.

For many people, a disaster is the beginning of the poverty spiral, as assets—such as farm tools and animals, often acquired over many years, are abruptly lost in one disaster event. For instance, there are indications that the losses to the livestock sector during the Sahelian droughts of the 1960s to mid-1980s are still not completely recovered from in terms of per capita meat and milk production. 

The World Bank study found that the effect of disasters on well-being, measured in terms of lost consumption, is larger than asset losses. This results in long-term effects on health, education, ability to work productively and to restore pre-disaster conditions. It also precipitates many people into debt when assets had to be sold to survive. Therefore, the report estimates that impact on well-being in affected countries is equivalent to consumption losses that far exceed direct impact losses and reach about US$520 billion a year, far larger than any earlier estimates. 

The report has many detailed examples about the mechanisms that bring about long-term impacts, as well as some solutions, including micro-credit and insurance (including crop insurance), as well as dedicated funds established by governments. 

Overview

This section of the CropWatch bulletin provides an overview of disasters that occurred during the reporting period. It is sometimes based on early reports, as well as early impact assessments, as the full measure of impacts becomes available long after the impacting factor itself has subsided. The report also focuses on disasters that have the potential to directly affect agriculture, and this mostly covers vagaries of water supply and cold weather. Volcanic eruptions in non-agricultural areas, earthquakes and man-made disasters are thus mostly not mentioned, even if they have the potential to lead to long-term effects that are very comparable to those listed in the just mentioned World Bank report. Importantly, all disasters can be made worse by mismanagement as it often affects rescue operations. 

The recent El Niño, which has led to misery in large regions worldwide, was the first occurrence of a large-scale geophysically caused disaster in many years, probably going back to the mid-1980s and the well-known Ethiopian droughts. Since then, the world has changed, and conflicts and many forms of civil and military unrest, including deliberate starvation of people and livestock, have replaced drought as one of the main causes of food insecurity (Hendrix and Brinkman, 2013; RCRC, 2008). Current disaster reports include information about man-made disasters from many locations, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Kasai), South Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria (Borno state), Syria, Iraq, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Gambia, Mozambique, and Libya. In many cases, the difficult food situations are brought about by refugees from neighboring provinces or countries. Often, the impact of conflicts is compounded by environmental issues, whether linked to climate or the depletion of environmental resources, such as firewood, or unaffordable food prices. In many cases too, the precariousness and vulnerability drag on for years as populations never seem to be able to recover. A typical example is the impact of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti (see below), a country that has not recovered from the January 2010 earthquake, or the seemingly endless succession of aftershocks  that still occur now in the wake of the Gorkha earthquake of April 2015 in Nepal.

The most significant disasters of the reporting period include floods in southeastern Africa (especially Mozambique) and Hurricane Matthew, which affected Haiti at the beginning of October.

Cyclones and storms

Hurricane Matthew (September 28-October 10, 2016) was one of the strongest and long-lived Atlantic cyclones in ten years, starting its trajectory off the Venezuelan coast and dissipating east of Canada. It crossed the Caribbean between Cuba and Haiti, which were the most severely affected developing countries (damages estimated at US$2.6 billion and US$1.9 billion, respectively). Total economic loss, including between US$5 and 8 billion in the United States) is currently put as about US$13 billion. In the Caribbean, the period coincides with the maize and rice harvests and the planting of the second maize crops. According to FAO, the most affected areas in Haiti have lost up to 100% of crops, and pastures to feed livestock have also been affected. The organization puts the total value of crop losses at US$360 million and damages to irrigation and fishing equipment at US$178 million. The final estimate by government and FAO puts annual crops losses due to Matthew at 116,000 tons of food, while also about 16,500 tons of food in stock was lost. Fruit losses until recovery are estimated at over 100 million tons. About 2 million birds, 500,000 goats, 163,000 pigs, 102,000 heads of cattle, 74,000 sheep and 23,000 horses were killed, which will affect protein availability for several years. In total, 1.4 million people, or 13% of Haiti’s population, were in need of food assistance at the beginning of October. In Cuba (Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas provinces) the impact was more limited; the production loss is estimated to reach 10,000 tons of maize, as the affected provinces represent a small fraction of total national maize and rice output. Horticultural crops, however, are deemed to have been more severely impacted, as were plantain and bananas. Plantain and bananas suffered as well from wind damage in several Caribbean islands. 

Typhoon Sarika (October 13-19, 2016) affected the Philippines (crop loss: 250,000 tons), South China, and Vietnam (provinces of Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue, and Quang Binh), for a total estimated loss of US$760 million (of which US$680 in Hainan) and 34 fatalities (figure 5.1). The typhoon formed east of the Philippines where it made landfall in Quezon and moved west-northwest in the general direction of China’s Hainan province. A twin typhoon (Haima) developed between 14 and 26 October in the same general area, making landfall over northern Luzon in the Philippines and then progressing to China and eventually reaching Japan. The total damage is estimated at 18 casualties and US$1.93 billion damage, including US$70 million in the Philippines and more than US$1 billion in China. Precise impact estimates for the agricultural sector are still missing. In Guangdong, agricultural and economical losses were in excess of US$500 million. Just under 200,000 ha of crops were destroyed in Hainan (worth just over US$600 million), with more limited impacts in Fujian (200 hectares and an economic loss of US$5 million). 

Hurricane Otto affected Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama between November 20 and 26 in 2016. Total damage is estimated at US$50 million. No specific agricultural impact assessments are available from FAO, but the damage to the sector was limited and certainly much less severe than the destruction brought about by Matthew. 

Typhoon Nock Ten was the third cyclone that affected the Philippines this season. It lived from the 20th to the 28th of December and affected, next to the Philippines, Vietnam as well, with wind speeds reaching just short of 300 km/h in the early stages. Nearly 3 million people have been affected in Bicol region, Mimaropa, Calabarzon and Eastern Visayas, but casualties remained low and damage relatively contained (US$ 100 million), mostly comprising of about 200,000 tons of rice, maize, and some high value crops totaling US$90 million.

At the end of January, about 20 people died in Georgia and Mississippi in the United States after multiple tornadoes rattled the region. In total, at least 62 tornadoes touched down across the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina from January 21 to 23.

Excess rainfall and landslides

Abundant precipitation leading to floods have occurred on all continents, forcing people to evacuate and destroying homes and crops. Example of this are in Egypt (late October, killing 30), Indonesia (mid-November in Karawang, West Java), the Dominican Republic (mid-November, affecting several provinces with frequent landslides), and in central Vietnam (early December, with losses valued at more than US$309 million). In Argentina, a storm surge on December 26 caused flooding and heavy damage in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Rosario, with 10 towns still flooded in January. On January 9, floods affecting 13 provinces killed 19 people in the lower-central region and mostly the south of Thailand. Some days later (January 20 to 26), the Philippines were hit by floods and landslides that resulted in 9 deaths, mainly in Davao and northern Mindanao regions, affecting 1.5 million people; early estimates indicated that the cost of damage to agriculture is about US$1 million. 

The most severe and widespread floods are those that befell southern Africa, after a drought year brought about by El Niño and reported on in previous CropWatch bulletins. Countries affected include mostly Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and—to a lesser degree—Angola where 10,000 people were made homeless. The region is at the peak of its agricultural season, with cassava and maize being the main crops. Torrential rains started early in the month, and more than 600,000 people were affected by as much as 600 mm in one week (12 to 18 January) in Mozambique, while 44 people were killed, mostly in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, and Nampula (figure 5.2). According to ACAPS, the Zambezi river burst its banks on January 24 in the central province of Sofala. Two million people are expected to be affected in Mozambique (IPC phase 3 level) . The floods occurred when about 1 million people were still receiving food assistance as a result of last year's drought and at a time the price of maize was already 20% to 100% (according to the market) above normal seasonal values. Many of the affected areas are semi-arid (especially in the south) and are not well prepared nor equipped for excess precipitation. Although thousands of hectares of crops have been lost, it is likely that the precipitation will benefit crop production at the national level.

Drought, heatwaves, and fire

On November 8, wild fires started in the central provinces of Chile. By mid-December, 49 fires had been reported; by mid-January, 32 fires (out of a total of 100) were still active. In total, about 250,000 hectares of vegetation were lost in seven regions: Valparaiso, Metropolitan, O'Higgins, Maule, Bío-Bío, Aracuanía, and Los Lagos, and 11 people have died. According to Chile’s fire brigade chiefs, poor preparation for climate change and large monoculture plantations were to blame for the disaster (see figure 5.3). 

An extreme heat wave has hit parts of New South Wales and Queensland in Australia at mid-January, with temperatures reaching close to 50°C.

Cold wave

At mid-December, a dzud (an extreme cold wave) affected 13 provinces in northern Mongolia. 

A cold wave affected a large area spanning the Mediterranean and parts of central Europe; the conditions started in early January and the cold wave was accompanied by snowstorms, strong winds, and very cold freezing temperatures by local standards (reaching -35°C). Disaster monitoring systems single out Macedonia and Belarus. In North Africa, Morocco reports a less intense but nevertheless severe cold wave from mid-January, affecting particularly regions in the east, north, and south. Neighboring Algeria was affected in its eastern, central and the high plateau regions. In Libya, cold weather was reported from late December. It is unknown whether agricultural impacts are to be expected.

Figure 5.1. Damage to bananas in Hainan as a result of typhoon Sarika
Source: Wikipedia

Figure 5.2. Map of estimated precipitation between 12 and 18 January 2017 in Mozambique and Zimbabwe
Source: Modified from http://www.unitar.org/unosat/node/44/2535.

Figure 5.3. Dramatic night view of wild fires in Chile
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ jan/29/chiles-forest-fires-poor-planning-fire-chiefs-monoculture-fire-breaks.