4.2 Food import and export outlook 2017

Analysis of import and export of grain crops in china,2016

Food

In 2016, China imported 21.997 million tonsof food(grain), which was 32.8% below the previous year’s imports. Main sourcesfor imported grains were the United States, Australia, Ukraine, and Vietnam,responsible for respectively 31.6% ,25.4%, 13.7% and 7.4% of the total imports.In total, food(grain) imports to China amounted to US$ 5.714 billion. Foodexports were 636,000 tons, which was 19.5% more than the previous year.Exported grain mainly went to South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan, respectivelyaccounting for 29.8%, 16.4%, and 14.7% of the total exports. Exports amountedto us US$ 505 million.

Wheat

Wheat imports in 2016 were 3.4119 milliontons, an increase of 13.5% over the previous year. Main sources of imports wereAustralia, Canada, and the United States, with those countries accounting forrespectively 40.8%, 30.2%, and 22.8% percent of total imports. Total wheatimports amounted to US$ 815 million. Exports of the crop were 112,800 tons,mainly exported to Hong Kong and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,with each receiving respectively 83.5% and 5.5% percent of total exports. Totalwheat exports amounted to US$ 62 million.

Rice

In 2016, 3.5628 million tons of rice wereimported, up 5.5% over the previous year. The main sources of imports wereVietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan (45.4%, 26.9%, and 19.8% of total imports,respectively), with the total amount adding up to US$ 1.614 billion. Riceexports were 395,100 tons, mainly to the Republic of Korea, the DemocraticPeople’s Republic of Korea, and Japan, respectively accounting for 44.4%, 10.6%,and 9.6% of total exports. The total amount of rice exported amounted to US$351 million.

Maize

Also last year, 3.1663 million tons ofmaize were imported, 3% less than the year before. The main sources of mportswere Ukraine, the United States, and Laos, respectively accounting for 84.0%, 7.0%and4.4%oftotal imports. Maize imports amounted to US$ 634 million. Exports were3,457 tons, with those exports mostly going to the Democratic People’s Republicof Korea (90.4% of total exports). Exports were a total of $1.1095 million.

Soybean

In 2016, soybean imports were 83.2302million tons, up 1.8%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, the UnitedStates, and Argentina (45.7%, 40.4%, and 9.6% of total imports, respectively).Imports amounted to US$ 34.018 billion. Soybean exports were 128,300 tons, down4.2%.

2017 prospects for imported food staples in China

The following prospects are based on2016-2017 global crop monitoring of remote sensing data and a simulation modelthat takes into account major shocks and policies (based on the standard GTAPmodel). In 2017, main crop variety imports are expected to increase in 2017.Specific predictions per crop are as follows:

·        Wheat. According to the model, wheatimports will grow 5% while wheat exports will reduce 7.2%. Although thecomparative efficiency of wheat is low, the overwintering conditions of winterwheat in the north and south of China have generally been good. Wheat importsare stable with slight increases in 2017.

·        Rice. In 2017, rice imports are expectedto increase 6%, while exports will decrease 1.5%. At present, the general trendof the domestic and foreign price differentials are still expended, and riceimports are predicted to maintain increasing momentum in 2017, but still withinthe quotas.

·        Maize. Imports are expected to reduce8.6% and exports 4.3%. At present, the situation of domestic maize supply anddemand is still loose, prices are low, and maize imports are restricted. Maizeimports are stable with decreasing trend in 2017.

·        Soybean. In 2017, soybean imports areexpected to increase 0.6%, while exports decrease 3.5%. Under the influence ofplanting structure adjustment policies and dropped maize prices, the soybeanacreage slightly increase, and the space of imported soybean growth isnarrowing. The growth rate of soybean imports is expected to be small in 2017.

                                                                 Figure 4.5. Change in import (blue)and export (red) of four main crops in China, 2017 (percentage)

                                                                Table 4.2. Chinese imports andexports of main commodities in 2016 and 2017 (projections)

Δ% indicates percentage differencewith previous year. M tons indicates amount in million tons; M$ indicates valuein million US$.