The most relevant crop during the monitoring period was currently hibernating winter wheat. From the beginning of October to early-December, crop condition was inferior to last year’s and below the five-year average. However, from mid-December to the end of the monitoring period crop condition recovered to exceed both last year’s and the five-year average. Radiation (RADPAR, -9%) was below average for the region, while temperature (TEMP, +1.3°C) was above and precipitation (RAIN, +121%) far above, which gave rise to a potential biomass (BIOMSS) far above average as well (+101%).

In most of the region, the analyses based on spatial NDVI clusters and profiles are consistent with VCIx. The most favorable conditions occurred mainly in the north of Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces and in the east of Gansu province, due to the abundant rainfall and suitable sunlight. On the contrary—and mostly because of drought during the monitoring period (as confirmed by the maps of potential biomass)—crops were in poor condition in the middle of Gansu and Shaanxi provinces and in the east of Shanxi. The seemingly above average crop condition in some areas from mid-December may be the result of rapid growth due to high temperature. Altogether, crop prospects in the region are favorable.

Figure 4.16. Crop condition China Loess region, Oct 2016 - January 2017

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(b) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA           (c) NDVI profiles

(d) Maximum VCI                                                    (e) Biomass