Introduction chapter 3

The current reporting period recorded relatively few extreme conditions among the 30+1 countries specifically monitored by CropWatch and described in this chapter. Some, however, are part of the large anomaly patterns described in Chapter 1, and they are often surrounded by less important countries in terms of agricultural production where conditions may be more extreme. 

Table 3.1 presents the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators for January-April 2017, showing their departure from the five and fifteen-year averages as applicable; the underlying CWAI indicators are presented in figures 3.1-3.4. 

Rainfall

Positive rainfall departures

Rainfall departures larger than 50% above average were recorded in three Asian countries: 367 mm (RAIN, +76%) in Bangladesh, 880 mm (+69%) in the Philippines, and 302 mm (+61%) in Thailand. Some detail about Bangladesh is provided in section 5.2 about disasters. Among the listed countries, BIOMSS increased in both Bangladesh and the Philippines (+48% and +33%, respectively), while in Thailand BIOMSS was +9%, due to somewhat below average temperature (-0.7°C). A similar situation is observed in Argentina (rainfall 696 mm, +40%), with a smaller relative biomass increase due to below average temperature and the use of the two different reference periods (15 years for the agroclimatic indicators and only five for BIOMSS). In Bhutan, rainfall reached 411 mm in agricultural areas (+75%).

In other areas, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia are also mentioned in the section on disasters due to exceptional precipitation recorded in their common border area in the north of Peru, northeast Ecuador, and southwest Colombia. Rainfall departures for the three countries are high even at the national level (+29%, +41%, and +29%, respectively), which results from the common and large scale cause for the phenomenon: a “coastal El Niño”. Other significant rainfall excesses in the same region, though probably unrelated as far as causes are concerned (except maybe for Bolivia), include Bolivia (+32%), Venezuela (+29%), and the two countries on the island of Hispaniola: Haiti (+67%) and the Dominican Republic (+72%). The countries are part of a larger ensemble that encompasses about half the South American continent.

Figure 3.1. Global map of January-April 2017 rainfall (RAIN) by countryand sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)

Figure 3.2. Global map of January-April 2017 biomass (BIOMSS) by countryand sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)

In other parts of the world, large positive rainfall departures also are reported for southern Africa (where some of them also resulted in local floods), such as in Mozambique (RAIN, +18%; see disasters section), Botswana (+39%), and Zimbabwe (+52%). For those and several neighboring countries, the abundant precipitation was much needed relief after last year’s drought. Interestingly, the southern African countries are also those with the largest negative temperature anomalies, such as for example -2.2°C in Botswana, -1.9°C in Swaziland, and -1.5°C in Namibia and Zimbabwe. In contrast, South Africa, where the rainfall deficit was moderate, recorded a temperature drop of “only” -0.7°C. The same general area was also characterized by low sunshine in Botswana and Zimbabwe (RADPAR, -7%).

Still significant, but less spectacular positive rainfall departures also occurred in North America, central and eastern Europe and western Russia, western West Africa, in an area of the southeastern Caspian up to northern China, and in Australia. And finally, positive departures need to be mentioned for the countries around the South China Sea (some already mentioned above), which, in addition to high rainfall and low temperature, also recorded low sunshine values, such as a RADPAR of -8% in Vietnam and -5% in the Philippines. It is likely that the large increases in cropped arable land fraction in Thailand (CALF, +12%) and Cambodia (+22%, the largest cropped arable land fraction increase among all CropWatch countries) derive directly from the favorable water supply. 

Rainfall deficits

Negative rainfall departures—though usually not severe enough to qualify as “drought” because of seasonally low temperatures that reduce water consumption in winter crops, occurred in the Mediterranean and the eastern Black Sea countries, with some neighboring countries also in need of mentioning, starting in the east with Georgia (RAIN, -60%), Cyprus (-54%), Lebanon (-46%), and Syria (-35%). In Europe, the area encompasses Montenegro (RAIN, -58%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (-37%), Slovenia (-33%), and Croatia (-32%), as well as Albania (-54%). In the European Union, the most important agricultural countries in this group are France (-36%), together with Italy (-51%) and, on the Atlantic Ocean, Spain (-38%) and Portugal (-58%). France suffered a marked drop in biomass production potential (BIOMSS, -31%) due to the mentioned shortage of rainfall while temperature (-0.8°C) and RADPAR were closer to average. In the southern Mediterranean, Tunisia is the most affected country with a rainfall of -37%. Meanwhile, Turkey, with a 22% rainfall deficit, also suffered a very significant drop in its cropped arable land fraction (CALF, -28%), which is further discussed in the country narrative. This is not unlike Iran (CALF down 19%), where other indicators, however, took relatively average values. 

In Asia, the Republic of Korea deserves mentioning with -55% precipitation compared with average, together with Japan (-33%) and most of eastern and southeastern China (such as Chongqing -37% and Guizhou -30%). 

For the Horn of Africa, the section on disasters (5.2) also mentions droughts in parts of this region, although national precipitation values are generally fair, such as in Ethiopia (-9%), resulting from a mix of areas with favorable and unfavorable rain. In Rwanda, however, which borders the Horn, rainfall dropped 46%, while Kenya recorded -42% and Somalia -26%.

Finally, in terms of precipitation deficits compared to average, Chile (-41%) is mentioned, as well as two large countries where national averages hide contrasting sub-national conditions: India (-16% nationwide but -65% in Orissa and -81% in Chhattisgarh) and Brazil (+6% nationwide but -32% in Minas Gerais). The case of India is particularly worrying as the drought follows widespread excess water in previous seasons.

Temperature and radiation

For temperature, above average values are noted for China(+0.5°C) and Russia (+1.2°C) on theEurasian continent, as well as in North America with significant increases inthe United States (+1.8°C) and Canada (+1.4°C). In both China and the UnitedStates, the positive temperature departure was accompanied by below averageRADPAR (-6% in both countries), which may result from increased cloudiness.

Figure 3.3. Global map of January-April 2017 temperature (TEMP) bycountry and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (degrees)

Low temperature departures (close to -1°C) occurred inseveral areas, notably an area stretching from Hungary to Afghanistan, thusapproximately centered around Armenia (departure: -2.1°C); northern to centralSouth America, and Southeast Asia.

Finally, the largest sunshine deficits affected Balticcountries, extending into central Europe and including Belarus (RADPAR, -15%,which is a very significant value for a national average), Lithuania and Latvia(both -13%) and Estonia (-10%). Generally smaller deficits occur south of thisarea in Poland (-13%) and Czech Republic (-9%), and west of it in Denmark andthe United Kingdom (both at -9%), to increase again in Ireland (-14%).

Figure 3.4. Global map of January-April 2017 PAR (RADPAR) by country andsub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)

Table 3.1. CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicators for January-April 2017, departure from 5YA and 15YA