Generally, crop condition in Brazil was slightly above the average of the previous five years during the monitoring period. Winter wheat was out of season. The harvest of maize (main season), rice, and soybean just started in early April and will last several months. Favorable agroclimatic conditions were observed at the national level, with RAIN at 6% above average, TEMP at -0.4°C, and RADPAR -2%, resulting in a 2% below average BIOMSS. Agroclimatic conditions, however, vary a lot among the major agricultural production states. Rio Grande do Sul for example received sufficient rainfall (RAIN, +57%), while Minas Gerais suffered from drought with a 32% rainfall shortage compared with average. Rainfall in Santa Catarina, Ceará, and Goias was recorded at -13%, -15%, and -18% compared to the fifteen-year average for RAIN. Temperature and RADPAR were close to “normal” except in Mato Grosso do Sul where TEMP was 1.3°C below average. Altogether, BIOMSS at the state level was below average in Minas Gerais, Santa Catarina, Ceará, and Goias, while 12% and 19% above average in Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul, dominated by rainfall departure. 

Unevenly distributed climatic conditions lead to differences in agronomic indicators. The maximum VCI map presents overall favorable condition, and VCIx in part of Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul was above 1.0, indicating a crop condition above the situation over the past five-years. Spatial NDVI patterns and corresponding NDVI departure profiles also confirm that continuously above average NDVI mainly occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, and Pará. Below average NDVI mostly occurred in coastal areas of Bahia, Sergipe, and Alagoas. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, national NDVI was below average due to the cloudy and rainy weather, but recovered to an average level and above that of the previous year by the end of April. Altogether, CropWatch projects the maize, rice, and soybean productions for Brazil above the previous harvest season (see table B.3 in Annex B). Even in Santa Catarina, which experienced a rainfall shortage, an increased planted area will result in crop production at a level similar to 2016.

.Figure 3.8. Brazil crop condition, January-April2017

a. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                  b. Maximum VCI

c. Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and the coresponding NDVI departure profiles