The monitoring period from January to April coincides with theearly Belg cropping season; rainfall in this period is generally less reliablethan during the main Meher season that corresponds to all crops harvested fromAugust. With the exception of radiation (RADPAR, +4%), agroclimatic indicatorsshow a general reduction in observed values compared to average: temperature(TEMP) -0.4°C and rainfall (RAIN) -9%, corresponding to an amount of 171 mm.However, the northwestern lowlands of Tigray, Amhara, and Benishangul-Gumuz,which are prominent cereal-producing areas, recorded a significant rise inrainfall of about 53%, which subsequently resulted in an increased biomassproduction potential (BIOMSS) of 44% above the five-year average for theperiod. Similarly, a large surplus of rainfall of about +136% was received inthe western parts of Addis Ababa and Benishangul-Gumuz. BIOMSS in this area was104% above average, which was very beneficial for the development ofrangelands. In contrast, dry conditions prevailed in the eastern parts of thecountry, including the southeast highlands (Somali area), which recorded arainfall deficit of 34%. BIOMSS departure in the southeastern mixed maize zonewas -28%, which was the worst of all negative departures.

The spatial NDVI profiles show areas with negative values amidstpositive ones, corresponding with the rainfall variations across the differentareas. In addition, maximum VCI was about 0.59, indicating just fair cropcondition; VCIx was highest (above 1) in some patches of Amhara and southwestTigray, consistent with the increased biomass recorded in these areas. Thewestern mixed-maize areas of SNNP, due to normal RAIN and increased RADPAR(+4.3%), experienced a BIOMSS increase of about 7.6% compared to average. Overall,crop condition seems to be favorable, but because most production occurs duringthe Meher season the final outcome of the situation is still very open.

Figure3.12. Ethiopia crop condition, January-April2017

(a)    Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                    (b) Maximum VCI

(c)    Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                           (d) NDVI profiles